{"id":31595,"date":"2015-08-04T09:58:54","date_gmt":"2015-08-04T13:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=31595"},"modified":"2015-08-04T09:58:54","modified_gmt":"2015-08-04T13:58:54","slug":"plummeting-apple-is-a-screaming-buy-lessons-from-the-puerto-rico-bond-mess","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=31595","title":{"rendered":"Plummeting Apple is a screaming buy. Lessons from the Puerto Rico bond mess."},"content":{"rendered":"

I suspect Apple may be a screaming buy. It has dropped for three reasons:<\/p>\n

1. iPhone sales in China will be weak because China’s economy is slowing and millions of Chinese have been hurt by the Shanghai stock market’s plummets.<\/p>\n

2. Super intelligent hedgies saw the $132 ceiling and sold the stock short.<\/p>\n

3. Super dumb hedgies are facing investor redemptions following their dumb decisions in commodities, which have fallen.<\/p>\n

Here is Apple over the past year:<\/p>\n

\"AppleOverONeYear2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Three times it’s hit the $132 ceiling — my green line — <\/span><\/strong>and fallen strongly. It’s a no-brainer short sale.
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Several times it’s fallen below its 200-day moving average — my red line. <\/strong>But it has come back.
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

You can make a case for China’s consumption dropping. Here’s a chart from Macquarie, an Australian operation:<\/p>\n

\"MacquarieChina\"<\/a><\/p>\n

So, it’s not boom times in the People’s Republic.<\/p>\n

But that could actually mean a pickup<\/strong> in Apple sales. “Look how I’m not suffering. be envious.” Some luxury items sell more in bad times.<\/p>\n

I still have 3,000 Apple. I’m tempted to buy a few more, especially if it falls further, which it’s doing.<\/p>\n

The chart came from BusinessInsider<\/em> this morning. You see the rest of Macquarie’s charts here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The big BIG lesson:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Things change ultra-fast — much faster than they’ve ever. Because there are more hedgies playing the day-to-day game, price movements get exaggerated. Think Apple. But primarily think commodities. There are still people who think commodities will come back some time soon — viz. the gold bugs.<\/p>\n

I was fiddling last night with some charts on commodities and their producers. The gold miners have done really awful. Look at them:<\/p>\n

\"NaturalGasThreYears\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"isharesOIL&GasExplorationandProduction1year\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"ISHARESGOLD3years\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"GoldMinersthreeyears\"<\/a>\u00a0 \"IAUSilver3years\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Now some erstwhile hot stocks from the oil patch:<\/p>\n

\"EOGYTD\"<\/a> \"XOMYTD\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is solar. The theory is when oil falls, no one wants to buy solar because the economics suddenly shifted.<\/p>\n

\"SUNEYTD\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Three lessons from all this:<\/p>\n

+ Don’t fall in love with any stock — like Apple — and make it too big a part of your portfolio.<\/p>\n

+ Buy and hold is really dead.<\/p>\n

+ Long live Harry’s Inviolate Stop Loss Rule.<\/em> <\/strong>It really works.<\/p>\n

Lessons from Puerto Rico:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

+ Don’t borrow to finance day-to-day spending.<\/p>\n

+ Don’t trust the ratings agencies. They gave PR a great rating until it was far too late — yet my 34-year old guru — warned me off Puerto Rico eons ago. And I sold all my PR bonds. Thank you Max.<\/p>\n

+ Be wary of mutual funds. A whole bunch or moronic mutual fund managers bought Puerto Rico bonds and still own them. Remember Harry’s Fill-Em-Up With Garbage Fund Strategy<\/em>? That’s what happens when the fund has raised too much money. It’s run out of decent buys. It has internal rules about concentration on too few buys. Hence, it then buys garbage to fill the gap. This happens with real estate and venture funds.<\/p>\n

For more on the PR bond mess, this piece is really good: Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Nation Worried That Rest of World Might See Debate<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

CLEVELAND (The Borowitz Report)-As preparations get under way for the first Republican Presidential debate, on Thursday night, a new poll shows that Americans are deeply concerned that the rest of the world might see it. According to the poll, there is widespread fear that, if the debate were to be viewed in foreign countries, the cost to the United States’ prestige around the world would be incalculable.<\/p>\n

On a more personal level, many expressed concern that any international broadcast of the debate would greatly diminish their desire to ever travel abroad or talk to foreigners.<\/p>\n

In another measure of Americans’ discomfort with Thursday’s televised event, two of the TV programs they identified as being the biggest embarrassments to America, “Duck Dynasty” and “Jersey Shore,” still lagged far behind the debate.<\/p>\n

Those surveyed strongly agreed that the U.S. government should block foreign transmission of the debate, or that Fox News should air an explanation of the contest beforehand, but they were at a loss as to what that explanation could possibly be. And, in a result that seemed to sum up Americans’ anxiety, a broad majority agreed with the statement “God, this is so embarrassing.”<\/p>\n

\"HarryNewton\"<\/a>
\nHarry Newton who is totally confused by all the “research” on which suntan blocker really blocks. Anyone know of a decent one? I know they should contain zinc and titanium. But how much? IN my hot little hand, I have two from the same company: The Mineral Screen has 7.7% titanium dioxide. The Mineral Cr\u00e8me has 2%. The Mineral Screen has 3.8% zinc oxide. The Mineral Cr\u00e8me has 17%. How much should there be? I have a poor sensitive neck that burns easily and painfully.<\/p>\n