{"id":32048,"date":"2015-09-10T10:00:53","date_gmt":"2015-09-10T14:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=32048"},"modified":"2015-09-10T10:00:53","modified_gmt":"2015-09-10T14:00:53","slug":"dump-high-pes-especially-those-with-big-overseas-exposures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=32048","title":{"rendered":"Dump high P\/Es especially those with big overseas exposures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My shorts made money yesterday. My longs didn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It looks that way for a while.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But, Harry, that&#8217;s a depressing view of the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yes, it is.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Muriel just figured my &#8220;efforts&#8221; of the last several weeks &#8212; especially when I was on vacation out west. Despite my holding much cash, it hasn&#8217;t been pretty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Holding stocks and indexes &#8220;for the long term&#8221; has not been a good strategy, recently.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Where now?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The simple answer is: Lots of volatility &#8212; more jaw-dropping ups and downs. But the overall trend, for now, is clearly down.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Reasons:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ P\/Es for a slowing world economy are far too high. Remember the BRICs? Brazil, Russia, India and China. Now look at them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Profit expectations for 2016 are too high. Earnings margins in the U.S. will narrow as wage pressures increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Huge declines in commodities and metals prices will hurt those companies that service or supply them. Energy companies are 15% of the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 That&#8217;s going to hurt the indexes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Problems in Europe. Best said in a recent New York Times piece:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">What all of these economies have in common, however, is that by joining the Eurozone they put themselves into an economic straitjacket. Finland had a very severe economic crisis at the end of the 1980s \u2014 much worse, at the beginning, than what it\u2019s going through now. But it was able to engineer a fairly quick recovery in large part by sharply devaluing its currency, making its exports more competitive. This time, unfortunately, it had no currency to devalue. And the same goes for Europe\u2019s other trouble spots.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0+ The refuge explosion. Thomas Friedman is now dividing the world into regions of &#8220;order&#8221; and &#8220;disorder.&#8221; Read more <a title=\"You haven't seen this play before\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/09\/09\/opinion\/thomas-friedman-walls-borders-a-dome-and-refugees.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here. <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0+ And all the reasons of my previous warnings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Warnings.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-32065\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Warnings.jpg\" alt=\"Warnings\" width=\"788\" height=\"617\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Warnings.jpg 788w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Warnings-300x234.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 788px) 100vw, 788px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Apple presents and the stock falls.<\/strong><\/span> The best thing about an Apple presentation is the presentation. Apple does superb presentations &#8212; the best! They spend big on the movies. And the applause track is happily provided by the many Apple employees in attendance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They didn&#8217;t announce a revolutionary product &#8212; like a car, or a TV set. But the new iPhone 6S impressed me sufficiently to think about getting one &#8212; the much improved camera being the key incentive.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Apple is the best at garnering free ink. You can read about their new stuff everywhere, including &#8220;<em>Testdriving Apple&#8217;s iOs 9.<\/em>&#8221; Click <a title=\"Testdriving Apple's iOS 9\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/09\/10\/technology\/personaltech\/apple-ios-9.html?action=click&amp;contentCollection=Personal%20Tech&amp;module=RelatedCoverage&amp;region=Marginalia&amp;pgtype=article\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> And &#8220;<em>The New iPhone 6S Breaks Apple&#8217;s Own Taboos.<\/em>&#8221; Click <a title=\"Apple's new products, including iPhone 6S\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/09\/10\/technology\/apple-tv-iphone-6s.html?ref=business\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/span>. And &#8220;<em>Eight Years After the First iPhone, Apple Keeps Going Its Own Way.<\/em>&#8221; Click <a title=\"Apple keeps going its own way.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/09\/10\/technology\/personaltech\/apples-iphone-still-breaks-the-rules-eight-years-on.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&amp;rref=business&amp;module=Ribbon&amp;version=origin&amp;region=Header&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=Business%20Day&amp;pgtype=article\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s what happened yesterday. I was right about shorting Apple.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/AppleYesterday2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-32049\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/AppleYesterday2.jpg\" alt=\"AppleYesterday2\" width=\"643\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/AppleYesterday2.jpg 643w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/AppleYesterday2-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>To be rational about Tesla is to miss the point. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">That&#8217;s the title of a Financial Times piece. Excerpt:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Look at the numbers; they are borderline insane. For every car it had sold by the end of last year, Tesla Motors had burnt through about $40,000 in research, development and capital expenditure. The company is worth about half as much as BMW, which makes 35 times as many vehicles. Tesla has never made an annual profit, yet investors keep pouring money in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In early spring, Elon Musk delivered an analysts&#8217; call for the ages. With most companies, these calls are death marches through the footnotes of an earnings report, but the Tesla founder announced that his company would be spending &#8220;staggering amounts on capex&#8221; and would be worth $700bn, around the same as Apple, in 10 years. Here is how: revenue of $6bn this year, growing at 50 per cent a year for a decade, making a 10 per cent profit margin and valued at 20 times earnings. You hear that in Munich?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">It was sweet of Mr Musk to bother with a cash flow valuation exercise, but he may have been patronising his audience. The idea of applying the same valuation to Tesla as you might to Ford makes little sense. This looks more like a venture investment. You do not buy Tesla because you think you know what profits it will make. You buy the stock because you think some new technology such as Tesla&#8217;s will change the world in ways that invalidate any such estimate. This is a play on the looming changes in the car and energy industries. To profit from the electric car race, you have to back the winner. Missing out is costlier than backing a few losers along the way.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">It is all prone to risk: the novel technology, the competitive threat, the danger of its charismatic founder falling under a bus, taking Tesla&#8217;s mojo with him. Hedge funds love the stock because it is so volatile. No one can make up their mind whether it is for real. All that seems certain is that, a decade hence, the company&#8217;s value will be nowhere near its current market capitalisation of $28bn. If Mr Musk fails to realise his bold vision, the company might be worthless. If you buy Tesla now and the company delivers, you will have hit a giant home run.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Read the entire FT article <a title=\"All about Tesla\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/2\/bb6abd4a-4b4f-11e5-b558-8a9722977189.html?ftcamp=traffic\/social_promo\/article_Tech_Tesla_Motors\/US_Reach_facebook\/projectwest\/auddev&amp;segid=0200888#axzz3kkA5gfTL\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>These are old, but fun.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;There are a number of mechanical devices which increase sexual arousal, particularly in women. Chief among these is the Mercedes-Benz SL500.&#8221; Lynn Lavne<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;Women might be able to fake orgasms. But men can fake a whole relationship. Sharon Stone<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men dressed like black pimps. Tiger Woods<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;My mother never saw the irony in calling me a son-of-a-bitch.&#8221; Jack Nicholson<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;Clinton lied. A man might forget where he parks or where he lives, but he never forgets oral sex, no matter how bad it is.&#8221; Barbara Bush (Former US First Lady)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;Ah, yes, divorce, from the Latin word meaning to rip out a man&#8217;s genitals through his wallet.&#8221; Robin Williams<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;According to a new survey, women say they feel more comfortable undressing in front of men than they do undressing in front of other women. They say that women are too judgmental, where, of course, men are just grateful.&#8221; Robert De Niro<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;There&#8217;s very little advice in men&#8217;s magazines, because men think, &#8216;I know what I&#8217;m doing. Just show me somebody naked !&#8221; Jerry Seinfeld<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;See, the problem is that God gives men a brain and a penis, and only enough blood to run one at a time.&#8221; Robin Williams<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Sex is one of the most wholesome, beautiful and natural experiences money can buy. Steve Martin<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;Bigamy is having one wife too many. Monogamy is the same.&#8221; Oscar Wilde<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ &#8220;It isn&#8217;t premarital sex if you have no intention of getting married.&#8221; George Burns<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton whose friend Ed is convinced there&#8217;s no chance of an early Fed increase. Ed instances a Politico piece. Click <a title=\"Fed, don't raise rates yet\" href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2015\/09\/federal-reserve-interest-rate-213132\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">U.S. Open tennis continues on ESPN and The Tennis Channel. Some of the tennis has been superb. Federer and Djokovic are still in. Friday night will be great viewing. It&#8217;s the semis. I played better on the tennis court yesterday than I did in the stock market. Hitting a great backhand (rare) compensates for poor stock performance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Business Insider listed the &#8220;<em>The 18 most &#8216;miserable&#8217; countries in the world<\/em>.&#8221; The most miserable is Venezuela. For the depressing (but fascinating) list, click <a title=\"18 Most Miserable Countries in the world\" href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/most-miserable-countries-in-the-world-2015-9?op=0#\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My shorts made money yesterday. My longs didn&#8217;t. It looks that way for a while. But, Harry, that&#8217;s a depressing view of the world. Yes, it is. Muriel just figured my &#8220;efforts&#8221; of the last several weeks &#8212; especially when I was on vacation out west. Despite my holding much cash, it hasn&#8217;t been pretty. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}