{"id":32456,"date":"2015-10-02T09:34:29","date_gmt":"2015-10-02T13:34:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=32456"},"modified":"2015-10-02T10:02:51","modified_gmt":"2015-10-02T14:02:51","slug":"short-lived-good-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=32456","title":{"rendered":"Short-lived good news"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good news. Predicts MarketWatch<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\"Downwardpull\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Writes MarketWatch:<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a historical trend that suggests the southward lean on this market could be coming to an end. Robert W. Baird\u2019s Michael Antonelli pointed out that of the 16 times the S&P finished the third quarter down more than 6% for the year, the full year closed lower in 15 of those instances. So, the year is probably toast.<\/p>\n

But look what happens in the fourth quarter. Of those 16 years, the last three months delivered gains 11 of those times, with an average of about 8%. Bounce back? \u201cWhile you dump stocks and rue the day the Fed casually mentioned raising rates, let us not forget that Q4 is typically the promised land for stock performance, even in really puke-tastic years,\u201d Antonelli said.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile this morning’s jobs report is disappointing and futures are down.<\/p>\n

So much for that good news!<\/p>\n

Here’s S&P over five years. You can see it’s well below its 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n

\"SPXOver5years\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Personally, I’m heavily into cash, have some gold (SGOL), which is losing me 2.1%. But my main emphasis are my shorts — IRDM, BHP, RIO, BABA, VLKAY (Volkswagen), KMI, EWZ (Brazil), WMT (Whole Foods), WYNN, XOM (Exxon Mobil), GS (Goldman Sachs), CAT and REGN (Regeneron). Most have a specific “story” or are simply way over-priced momentum stocks.<\/p>\n

Credit Suisse says the Volksvagen’s emission scandal could cost VW \u20ac78 billion and shares need to fall another 20%. You can read Business Insider’s story here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Jon Markman’s “New Sells” are TXN, WYNN (mine too), CSX, SPR, DLTR (Dollar Tree), and PPC.<\/p>\n

I still have a small holding of Apple stock. But I feel stupid. It reports record sales of iPhone 6s and 6s Plus, and the shares fall.<\/p>\n

Michael Blair, who’s short Apple wrote a piece for Seeking Alpha<\/em> which begins:<\/p>\n

Apple Sold 13 Million iPhones On Launch Weekend – That Should Frighten Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n

+ Apple says it sold over 13 million iPhones this launch weekend compared to 11 million last year.<\/p>\n

+ Last year excluded China which Apple reports contributes more than 40% of iPhone revenues.<\/p>\n

+ Data suggest that non-China launch weekend sales fell from 11 million to 8 million.<\/p>\n

+ While Apple crows about launch weekend, Android users grow annually by more than the entire iPhone installed base.<\/p>\n

+ If Apple ever builds an iPhone good enough that users want to keep it more than two years, iPhone sales will slump and Apple stock will suffer.<\/p>\n

You can read Blair’s piece here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Here’s Apple’s miserable performance this year. Based on my inviolate stop loss rule, I shouldn’t own even one share in Apple. Friends are putting in buy orders around $90.<\/p>\n

\"AppleYTDAgain\"<\/a><\/p>\n

News of Bill Ackman and the ailing hedge fund industry:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

+ Ackman’s Pershing Square off 12.6 pct for year after Valeant tumble<\/strong><\/p>\n

BOSTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) – Billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman’s Pershing Square Holdings fund is nursing a 12.6 percent loss for 2015, an investor who received Ackman’s letter on Thursday said, marking a dramatic reversal of fortune for one of last year’s best performing managers.<\/p>\n

Pershing Square tumbled 12.5 percent last month, the investor told Reuters, when one of its biggest holdings, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, was battered by fears that U.S. lawmakers are planning to review price increases of the company’s products. Valeant makes up roughly a fifth of Pershing Square’s portfolio.<\/p>\n

Only four weeks earlier Ackman reported that the firm’s first half gain of roughly 10 percent had been largely wiped out during August’s market sell-off.<\/p>\n

The fund’s losses in August and September have shrunk the size of Ackman’s portfolio from roughly $20 billion earlier in the year to about $16.5 billion now, the person said.<\/p>\n

September’s battering put Ackman in line with a string of prominent rival managers, including David Einhorn, Daniel Loeb and Barry Rosenstein, who suffered losses last month that put them firmly into the red for the year. It also marks a sharp reversal of fortune for Ackman from last year when Pershing Square was one of the industry’s best performers with a 40 percent gain.<\/p>\n

Hedge fund managers generally do not comment on their performance as their funds are private.<\/p>\n

Valeant, of which Pershing Square bought 19.5 million shares earlier this year, was off as much as 30 percent in September before ending the month with a 22 percent drop.<\/p>\n

Ackman, one of the industry’s most closely followed activist investors, mostly bets that stocks will climb, making his portfolio particularly vulnerable to sharp market declines.<\/p>\n

He likely made some money on his short bet against Herbalife , but it was far from enough to offset other losses.<\/p>\n

+ There’s a huge article on Ackman’s campaign against Herbalife, which he believes is an illegal pyramid scheme and deserves to be shut down by the Federal government. It begins:<\/p>\n

. Bill Ackman’s holy war<\/strong><\/p>\n

In his all-out fight against Herbalife, is the activist investor assuming the role of judge, jury, and executioner?<\/p>\n

Activist investors play an important role in keeping business honest. They provide a check on free-spending CEOs and counter the inherent tendency of big companies to drift into bureaucratic sclerosis.<\/p>\n

In his nearly three-year battle against Herbalife, however, activist Bill Ackman has done something entirely new. His goal has not been to improve the company but to annihilate it. And he is using every tool at his disposal-his wealth, his connections, his cozy relations with my colleagues in the press-to achieve that goal.<\/p>\n

Conventional wisdom holds that hedge fund billionaires are driven by greed. Something else moves Ackman. If motivated by greed alone, he would have taken his profits and bolted long ago. Herbalife is his holy war, his white whale. He must kill it, whatever it takes, and he is utterly convinced of the righteousness of his cause.<\/p>\n

This is Herbalife over 5 years.\u00a0 Not a stock for the fainthearted.<\/p>\n

\"Herbalife\"<\/a><\/p>\n

You can read the Fortune piece here.<\/strong><\/a> Caution: It’s long and boring.<\/p>\n

Google Flights is really good.<\/strong> <\/span>Perhaps the best airline fare checker. Here’s a view:<\/p>\n

\"GoogleFlights\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It works well for finding better seats, too — premium economy, business class, first class — at better prices.<\/p>\n

Most useful Windows software:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

+ PDF-Exchange Viewer.<\/p>\n

+ CalcTape.<\/p>\n

+ FreeFileSync.<\/p>\n

Building something? Anything?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Put all the instruction and installation books in one big box. And keep it.<\/p>\n

2. Keep spares. Bathroom tiles. Glass light fixture covers. Lightbulbs. Window handles. Anything that will break in coming years.<\/p>\n

3. Get wiring diagrams from your electricians. Use Excel to keep track of which circuit breakers work for which fixtures.<\/p>\n

We’re having a hurricane. <\/strong>Our building manager has prepared Hurricane Preparedness Guidelines<\/strong>. In short:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

+ Bring everything outside inside. Secure everything. Duct tape works.<\/p>\n

+ Pre-assigned family meeting place. This is critical. In disasters, cell phones don’t work.<\/p>\n

+ Bottled water and energy bars.<\/p>\n

+ Cell phones charged, with extra batteries and\/or Mophies.<\/p>\n

+ A WiFi hotspot, either separate gadget or working on your smartphone.<\/p>\n

+ Flashlights and extra batteries.<\/p>\n

+ A packed “Go” bag, with<\/p>\n

— Clothes.<\/p>\n

— Copies of your important docs in a waterproof and portable container. Scan them all into Dropbox.<\/p>\n

— Extra set of car and house keys<\/p>\n

— Cash<\/p>\n

— Battery operated radio and extra batteries<\/p>\n

— First aid kit and medications<\/p>\n

— Spare backup laptop and batteries<\/p>\n

— Childcare supplies<\/p>\n

— Satphone.<\/p>\n

On-line brokerage.
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

All on-line, browser-driven brokerage accounts do not show current stock prices. These include Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity. Prices are only current when you opened the app. To see current prices you need to refresh or download one of their free apps — e.g. my favorite Fidelity Active Trader Pro.<\/em><\/p>\n

It’s critical to understand that buying and selling through a browser will not<\/strong> give you current prices.<\/p>\n

It’s come to this?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"cantsellto<\/a><\/p>\n

The hospital room<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A mother-in-law tells her son’s wife; “I don’t mean to be rude but he doesn’t look anything like my son.”<\/p>\n

The daughter-in-law lifts her skirt and said, “I don’t mean to be rude either, but this is a v*gina, not a photo-copier.”<\/p>\n

\"HarryNewton\"<\/a>
\nHarry Newton, who watched Blacklist’s <\/em>debut last night. I didn’t understand it. But I do like James Spader. My friend Mark says he and his wife Paula, are binge-watching Spader in Boston Legal<\/em>, courtesy Netflix. Meantime, Trevor Noah is doing a remarkably good job with The Daily Show<\/em> — Comedy Central 11 PM, Monday through Thursday.<\/p>\n