{"id":33087,"date":"2015-11-17T09:06:43","date_gmt":"2015-11-17T14:06:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=33087"},"modified":"2015-11-17T09:06:43","modified_gmt":"2015-11-17T14:06:43","slug":"oih-veh-time-again-to-dump-everything-or-back-up-the-truck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=33087","title":{"rendered":"Oih veh. Time (again) to dump everything? Or back up the truck?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hedgie Daivd Tepper tells the Robin Hood Investors Conference yesterday:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s really hard today. People are afraid to admit how stupid they are. I know how stupid I am.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Japan is in recession &#8212; two negative GDP quarters. China is slowing. Europe has its terrorism and refuge crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">America&#8217;s big manufacturers are not doing well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Things look awful &#8212; or great. Remember the old adage:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Buy when there&#8217;s blood in the street.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cramer got it right last night. He said &#8220;there were forces of weaknesses abounding everywhere.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He listed some stock drops. Glance over his list. It freaked me out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">US Steel (X) down 63% for the year.<br \/>\nAK Steel (AKS) down 56%<br \/>\nFreeport McMoran (FCX) down 62%<br \/>\nCaterpillar (CAT) down 23%<br \/>\nCummins (CMI) down 31%<br \/>\nJoy Global (JOY) down 66%<br \/>\nConsole Energy (CNX) down 76%<br \/>\nCriss Natural down 62%<br \/>\nAlcoa down 48%<br \/>\nDeere (DE) down 16%<br \/>\nArcher Daniels (ADM) down 26%<br \/>\nMosaic (MOS) down 28%<br \/>\nPotash (POT) down 42%<br \/>\nIntrepid Potash (IPI) down 74%<br \/>\nMacys (M) down 41%<br \/>\nNordstrom (JWN) down 25%<br \/>\nChicos (CHS) down 25%<br \/>\nBed Bath and Beyond down 30%<br \/>\nUrban Outfitters (URBN) down 40%<br \/>\nGap (GPS) down 40%<br \/>\nWhole Foods (WFM) 40%<br \/>\nWalmart (WMT) down 33%<br \/>\nKinder Morgan (KMI) down 43%<br \/>\nMarathon (MRO) down 37%<br \/>\nRange Resources (RRC) down 35%<br \/>\nUltra Petroleum (UPL) down 62%<br \/>\nSouthwestern Energy (SWN) down 57%<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Good news: I don&#8217;t own much, any longer. But I do own Home Depot. And it beat last night. It was up big after hours last night.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If I can&#8217;t be intelligent, at least I can be lucky.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t know if any (or all) of Cramer&#8217;s list is worth buying, selling or ignoring.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m still digesting what I heard at Robin Hood yesterday. Top buys: the gaming industry. Activision (ACTI). Spirit Airlines (SAVE) and maybe Consol Energy (CNX).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Top short: Wayfair and the Chinese currency, the reminbi (or however it&#8217;s spelled). It&#8217;s overvalued by as much as 20%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Why I hate biotech. <\/strong><\/span>Take Clovis. Please do. Oleg Nodelman pounded the table for Clovis at last year&#8217;s Robin Hood. Then, this week, a small catastrophe:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Clovis.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-33093\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Clovis.jpg\" alt=\"Clovis\" width=\"648\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Clovis.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Clovis-300x163.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bloomberg reported<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Clovis Oncology had the perfect story. Then it went dark.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Clovis had two promising late-stage cancer drugs speeding to market with breakthrough therapy designs\u00a0it owned entirely. Its\u00a0most advanced drug, rocilitenib, for non-small-cell lung cancer, seemed possibly headed for FDA approval this year.\u00a0Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, had <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-04-22\/clovis-deal-chatter-heats-up-again-as-goldman-says-buy-real-m-a\">anointed Clovis<\/a> a takeover target, music to biotech investors&#8217; ears. Morgan Stanley suggested Amgen might be interested, noting\u00a0how\u00a0few companies had such promising, late-stage assets. Clovis&#8217;\u00a0founder-CEO had already managed to get a\u00a0company bought for billions by a rival.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The only questions seemed to be around how soon Clovis&#8217; cancer drug would come to market and how much share it would take from AstraZeneca&#8217;s recently approved competitor. It seemed, in the world of biotech, safe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">That made it all the more painful for Clovis investors when its stock price plunged 69 percent in a morning on Monday.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Clovis released data on Monday showing rocilitenib&#8217;s\u00a0response rate &#8212; the percentage of patients whose cancer\u00a0shrinks or is cleared after getting the drug &#8212; was far, far worse than what\u00a0early, unconfirmed data suggested. The response rate plunged from 67 percent to 28 percent for a smaller dose and 35 percent for a larger one. AstraZeneca&#8217;s direct competitor\u00a0Tagrisso, approved just last week, has a confirmed response rate about double that.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In other words, rocilitenib\u00a0is, as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Asthika Goonewardene puts it, &#8220;toast.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can read Blooomberg&#8217;s full gruesome story <a title=\"Bloomberg on Clovis\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/gadfly\/articles\/2015-11-16\/clovis-oncology-stock-goes-from-safe-to-sorry?cmpid=yhoo.headline\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>A really good deal. <\/strong><\/span>A &#8220;credit card&#8221; from Amazon:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/AmazonPrime.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-33088\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/AmazonPrime.jpg\" alt=\"AmazonPrime\" width=\"600\" height=\"165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/AmazonPrime.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/AmazonPrime-300x82.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Excellent benefits &#8212; especially if you&#8217;re as addicted to Amazon as much as I am.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Get your Amazon prime store card <a title=\"Amazon Prime Store Card\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/iss\/credit\/storecardmember\/ref=footer_plcc?_encoding=UTF8&amp;plattr=PLCCFOOT\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Oih veh<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span>A Jewish businessman in Chicago sent his son to Israel for a year to absorb the culture.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When the son returned, he said, &#8220;Papa, I had a great time in Israel. By the way, I converted to Christianity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Oy vey,&#8221; said the father. &#8220;What have I done?&#8221; He took his problem to his best friend, Ike.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Ike,&#8221; he said, &#8220;I sent my son to Israel, and he came home a Christian. What can I do?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Funny you should ask,&#8221; said Ike. &#8220;I too, sent my son to Israel, and he also came home a Christian. Perhaps we should go see the rabbi.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">So they did, and they explained their problem to the rabbi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Funny you should ask,&#8221; said the rabbi. &#8220;I, too, sent my son to Israel, and he also came home a Christian. What is happening to our young people?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And so they all prayed, telling the Lord about their sons. As they finished their prayer, a voice came from the heavens:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Funny you should ask,&#8221; said the Voice. &#8220;I, too, sent my Son to Israel . . .&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton who biked to the Grand Hyatt this morning. Nothing better for the soul than biking three miles in gloroius fall weather.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today at Robin Hood should be really good. See you tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hedgie Daivd Tepper tells the Robin Hood Investors Conference yesterday: It&#8217;s really hard today. People are afraid to admit how stupid they are. I know how stupid I am. Japan is in recession &#8212; two negative GDP quarters. China is slowing. Europe has its terrorism and refuge crisis. America&#8217;s big manufacturers are not doing well. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}