{"id":33832,"date":"2016-02-10T19:44:22","date_gmt":"2016-02-11T00:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=33832"},"modified":"2016-02-10T19:44:22","modified_gmt":"2016-02-11T00:44:22","slug":"the-investment-condition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=33832","title":{"rendered":"The investment condition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Banks may be as loaded with toxic oil debt now as they were with toxic sub-prime debt back in 2008.<\/p>\n

The human investment condition is to find a good thing, and beat it to death — on the assumption that the good times will roll on forever.<\/p>\n

Which they don’t.<\/p>\n

Banks, high-tech, organic food, oil fracking, biotech, bricks and mortar retail, have all lost their day in the sun.<\/p>\n

I don’t know what will replace them. Drones? Marijuana? (I don’t make this stuff up. People are pouring zillions into drones and dope.) What are they smoking?<\/p>\n

My saving grace has been my biases against banks, biotech and retailing and, of course, my inviolate stop loss rule.<\/p>\n

All that has saved me a fortune. But how much? Here’s a snapshot of price moves in the past two years. Glance over it and be horrified. This is not pretty.<\/p>\n

Banks:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"BAC2yr\"<\/a> \"GS2yr\"<\/a> \"C2yr\"<\/a> \"MS2yr\"<\/a> \"CS2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

FANG:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Google2yr\"<\/a> \"NFLIX2yr\"<\/a> \"AMZN2yr\"<\/a> \"FB2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Twitter and Yahoo:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Yahoo2yr\"<\/a> \"TWTR2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Biotechs:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Gild2yr\"<\/a> \"REGN2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Oil:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"XOM2yr\"<\/a> \"HAL2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0Solar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"SCTY2yr\"<\/a> \"SUNE2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Organic food:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"WWAV2yr\"<\/a> \"WFW2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bricks and mortar retailing:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Macys2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And, of course Apple: <\/strong>Not a pretty chart, either.<\/p>\n

\"Apple2yr\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What price oil? <\/strong><\/span>Oil has dropped. Half the world thinks lower oil — now heading to $1 a gallon — is great for the consumer, who’ll spend it faster than a 100 yard dash.<\/p>\n

The other half thinks the consumer is wary, and is hanging on, saving his shekels, doing nothing to boost the economy. Thank God economists have two arms. They can argue, “on the one hand… on the other.”<\/p>\n

Here are a couple of interactive charts. Roll your cursor over them.<\/p>\n