{"id":34594,"date":"2016-05-17T09:09:23","date_gmt":"2016-05-17T13:09:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=34594"},"modified":"2016-05-17T09:09:23","modified_gmt":"2016-05-17T13:09:23","slug":"when-in-doubt-stay-out-wise-words","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=34594","title":{"rendered":"When in doubt, stay out. Wise words."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Last night I fell asleep with my Apple watch on my wrist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">During the night, it ran out of juice.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I woke up this morning to a <strong>dead<\/strong> watch. My Apple Watch won&#8217;t even tell time this morning. Even Mickey is dead:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleWatchMickey.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34622\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleWatchMickey.jpg\" alt=\"appleWatchMickey\" width=\"225\" height=\"283\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">What moron designs a watch that won&#8217;t tell time?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some super-arrogant company which believes that whatever it designs, the people will flock to buy. This morning I read:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Apple Watch sales dropped 63% from the holiday quarter. IDC estimates just 1.5 million units were shipped in the first quarter of 2016, down from 4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">63% is a huge drop, even to my mathematically-challenged brain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yesterday the financial press reported that Warren Buffett and co. bought oodles of Apple stock, which jumped 3.4% on the news, prompting one of my super intelligent readers to post this comment:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #3f4549;\">Harry, you&#8217;ve been trashing Apple stock non stop and now that Warren Buffett bought a bunch it is rocketing toward the sky. APOLOGIZE TO YOUR READERS FOR ALL THE MONEY YOU&#8217;VE COST THEM ON THIS MISSED OPPORTUNITY.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0I read this morning:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Berkshire Hathaway, the multinational conglomerate led by US billionaire Warren Buffett, made a $1 billion bet on Apple stock earlier this year. It has 9.81 million shares in the iPhone maker.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This suggests that Buffett bought his Apple stock at way above what it&#8217;s selling at now (even with yesterday&#8217;s bonus bounce), viz:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleThisYearAGainAgain.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34614\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleThisYearAGainAgain.jpg\" alt=\"appleThisYearAGainAgain\" width=\"647\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleThisYearAGainAgain.jpg 647w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/appleThisYearAGainAgain-300x178.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Maybe Buffett is right. Maybe Apple is now a bargain &#8220;value&#8221; stock. Heck, it&#8217;s yielding 2.43% &#8212; much more than I get at my local bank.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m a techie. I buy stocks of companies whose products I like. I have an Apple Watch that doesn&#8217;t tell time. I have an iPhone that&#8217;s not the latest version, because I don&#8217;t see any benefit spending $900 to upgrade to the latest.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t like Apple laptops for a million reasons &#8212; not the least of which is that I can&#8217;t swap in a new battery when my Apple laptop dies on a long plane trip. I can do that with my new Lenovo ThinkPad X260.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m not smart enough to &#8220;play&#8221; Apple&#8217;s stock. I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s a bargain at last night&#8217;s $93.88. It might be. It might not be.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But with Apple, I stick with my rule, &#8220;<strong>When in doubt, stay out.<\/strong>&#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That philosophy &#8212; when in doubt, stay out &#8212; applies especially to biotech firms. There&#8217;s no industry that you can spin a more exciting tale than biotech. Half the firms are about to cure cancer. The other half have already.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But the disappointments come fast and furious. This one is not untypical and it may well be a bargain at today&#8217;s prices:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/ValeantOverTwoYears.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34616\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/ValeantOverTwoYears.jpg\" alt=\"ValeantOverTwoYears\" width=\"646\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/ValeantOverTwoYears.jpg 646w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/ValeantOverTwoYears-300x173.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But when in doubt, stay out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Bricks and mortar shops are being killed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This chart from BusinesssInsider tells the story:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/RetailOnlinevsStore.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34617\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/RetailOnlinevsStore.jpg\" alt=\"RetailOnlinevsStore\" width=\"600\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/RetailOnlinevsStore.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/RetailOnlinevsStore-300x184.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Retail stores are suffering for two reasons:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">1. Amazon.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">2. Lack of enticing new stuff to buy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hence, buy Amazon and Home Depot.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amazon sells everything I want &#8212; at lower prices and more conveniently &#8212; even tennis balls.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Home Depot sells stuff I need to check out before I buy. I can&#8217;t buy wooden flooring on Amazon because I need to see it. More importantly, Susan needs to see it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Home Depot just reported higher earnings and higher guidance. It&#8217;s been on my &#8220;Stocks I Like List&#8221; &#8212; on the right for eons.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Stuff I learned.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ People who don&#8217;t reply to your emails don&#8217;t perform.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I love Quora. They ask interesting questions and get experts to answer them. It has nothing to do with investing. I provides me with more fascinating (irrelevant) stuff to cram into my tired brain, e.g.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ What is the most isolated scheduled passenger plane flight path?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ What technology should we expect cities to realistically adopt within the next 5-10 years?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ What is it like to go through airport security in Israel?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ In a 14-hour flight, what do pilots do when they are free?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ Which airline flies the A380 with the highest density seating configuration? (Hint: It&#8217;s really ugly.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">+ What does death feel like?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Favorite new lawn signs. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There&#8217;s a whole industry out there making this stuff up and selling it. I bet business is booming.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/nobodytellsthe-truth.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34595\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/nobodytellsthe-truth.jpg\" alt=\"nobodytellsthe truth\" width=\"259\" height=\"195\" \/><\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/everybodysucks.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34596\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/everybodysucks.png\" alt=\"everybodysucks\" width=\"260\" height=\"190\" \/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/eeny.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34597\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/eeny.jpg\" alt=\"eeny\" width=\"260\" height=\"181\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/nobody_for_president_yard_sign.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34598\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/nobody_for_president_yard_sign.jpg\" alt=\"nobody_for_president_yard_sign\" width=\"225\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>&#8220;Trending&#8221; poetry. Among my older friends.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>I&#8217;ve Outlived My Dick,<\/strong> a poem &#8211; by Willie Nelson<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">My nookie days are over,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">My pilot light is out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What used to be my pride and joy,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Is now my water spout.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Time was when, on its own accord,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">From my trousers it would spring.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">But now I&#8217;ve got a full time job,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">To find the friggin thing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It used to be embarrassing,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The way it would behave.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For every single morning,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It would stand and watch me shave.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Now as old age approaches,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It sure gives me the blues.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">To see it hang its little head,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">And watch me tie my shoes!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Sort of amusing.<\/span><\/strong> Over 120 million attempts to blow Donald&#8217;s hair around. Send this to your kids.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/trumdpnald.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-34605\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/trumdpnald.jpg\" alt=\"trumdpnald\" width=\"650\" height=\"284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/trumdpnald.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/trumdpnald-300x131.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Use your cursor to move the trumpet around. Use your left click to blow the trumpet. Enjoy. Click <strong><a title=\"Blow the Donald's Hair Around\" href=\"http:\/\/trumpdonald.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">here.\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who&#8217;s thanking the Lord he hasn&#8217;t fallen down steps, hurt his shoulder, twisted his knee, hurt his hips. Old age su*cks. But you can stave it off with exercise, staying thin, not fretting excessively, getting plenty of naps and generally taking care of yourself &#8212; starting now, not when you get old, fat, creaky and crabby.<\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last night I fell asleep with my Apple watch on my wrist. During the night, it ran out of juice. I woke up this morning to a dead watch. My Apple Watch won&#8217;t even tell time this morning. Even Mickey is dead: What moron designs a watch that won&#8217;t tell time? Some super-arrogant company which [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34594\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}