{"id":3560,"date":"2010-08-25T09:04:05","date_gmt":"2010-08-25T13:04:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=3560"},"modified":"2010-08-25T09:15:59","modified_gmt":"2010-08-25T13:15:59","slug":"housing-sales-plummet-but-the-baltic-dry-index-booms-bhp-appeals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=3560","title":{"rendered":"Housing sales plummet, but the Baltic Dry Index “booms.” BHP appeals."},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s not clear. News is gloomy. Consumers are gloomy. Stock prices are not ultra-cheap. One is tempted to follow the mantra, “When in doubt, stay\u00a0 out<\/strong>.”<\/p>\n

At 70% of GDP, the consumer is key to the U.S. economy. The head of the port of LA said yesterday shipping is up 17% over\u00a0last year. More stuff coming in to buy.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

At 60% to 70% of GDP,\u00a0 capital investment is key to China’s economy. The Baltic Dry Index <\/span>has surged by 62.1% from a recent low of 1,700, viz.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

One observer Prieur du Plessis posts Possible investment<\/strong><\/a> implications from this “surge”:<\/p>\n

* Metal prices are likely to head higher in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

* Global equity prices could bottom out.<\/p>\n

* Emerging-market assets are set to outperform.<\/p>\n

* The gold price could fall back.<\/p>\n

* US dollar to weaken against the euro and strengthen against the yen.<\/p>\n

* Government bond yields to bottom.<\/p>\n

I don’t want to throw cold water on his arguments. But charts are a funny thing. I did my own chart.\u00a0 Mine looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

This morning the durable goods number was totally awful — as awful as the housing numbers for July earlier in the week.<\/p>\n

I think this stuff is too hard at present. Emotions are up and down faster than a whore’s drawers. Short-term is too hard to play profitably. Look what has happened to one popular bank:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It’s time to tighten up the stop losses. 8% — not 15% —\u00a0 sounds more logical for today’s squirrelly market.<\/p>\n

I like another mantra: Cash is King.<\/strong><\/p>\n

BHP is an interesting company. <\/strong>The Economist has a long, 3-page piece on it. Some excerpts:<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Making the earth move<\/strong>
\nBHP Billiton\u2019s remarkable growth has been driven by luck, shrewd dealmaking and, above all, China\u2019s demand for steel.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

+ In all, BHP\u2019s smart dealmaking has made it not just the biggest but the most influential and the best-positioned of the big mining firms. Alongside its interests in iron ore, coal and a host of metals it owns a large oil and gas business. Last year this contributed a fifth of profits. It provides an extra layer of diversity and a hedge against volatile prices in an industry that is a heavy user of energy.<\/p>\n

+ By making a large offer for PotashCorp, BHP has given a clear indication of where it intends to deploy the considerable financial firepower its success has brought.<\/p>\n

BHP reports today. The Economist is optimistic. BHP earnings should be good. I own BHP. It’s come back recently, making it look attractive:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For the full Economist piece, click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

O<\/strong><\/span>ur children are g<\/strong><\/span>ood with the Internet.<\/strong><\/span> They also find neat places to have their wedding, like Riverside Farm, in Pittsfield, Vermont:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

They also find neat places to go on their honeymoon, like the Granite Park Chalet in Glacier National Park, Montana.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For more photos, click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Logic-Part 1.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

An old Jew was refused service in a restaurant. “We don’t serve Jews here., the waiter said.<\/p>\n

Replied the old man, “Don’t let that bother you. I don’t eat Jews.”<\/p>\n

Logic-Part 2.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

“Figure it out. Work a lifetime to pay off the house. You finally own it and there’s no one to live in it.” — Arthur Miller.<\/p>\n

Logic-Part 2.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

“Susan, please close the window. It’s cold outside.”<\/p>\n

“Harry, if I close the window, will it get warm outside?”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Harry Newton,who thinks this new photo shows off his new (expensive) teeth better.
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s not clear. News is gloomy. Consumers are gloomy. Stock prices are not ultra-cheap. One is tempted to follow the mantra, “When in doubt, stay\u00a0 out.” At 70% of GDP, the consumer is key to the U.S. economy. The head of the port of LA said yesterday shipping is up 17% over\u00a0last year. More stuff […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3560\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}