National Press Club Everybody\u00a0knows\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0been\u00a0living through a crazy election year. Real events seem like they\u2019re rehearsals for\u00a0Saturday\u00a0Night Live.\u00a0Only an outbreak of\u00a0insanity\u00a0would seem\u00a0to account for\u00a0the\u00a0unprecedented\u00a0fact that\u00a0this year\u00a0a political\u00a0outsider\u00a0managed to\u00a0win a\u00a0major party\u00a0nomination. To the\u00a0people who are used to\u00a0influencing our choice of\u00a0leaders, to the wealthy people who\u00a0give\u00a0money\u00a0and\u00a0the\u00a0commentators who\u00a0give\u00a0reasons\u00a0why,\u00a0it\u00a0all\u00a0seems like\u00a0a bad dream.\u00a0Donors don\u2019t want to find out how and why\u00a0we got here. They just want to move on. Come\u00a0November 9th,\u00a0they\u00a0hope everyone else will\u00a0go back to business as usual.<\/p>\n But it is just this heedlessness, this\u00a0temptation\u00a0to ignore\u00a0difficult\u00a0realities,\u00a0indulged in by\u00a0our most influential citizens,\u00a0that got us where we are today.\u00a0A\u00a0lot of\u00a0successful people\u00a0are too proud\u00a0to admit it, since it seems to\u00a0put\u00a0their success\u00a0in question,\u00a0but\u00a0the truth is: No matter how crazy this\u00a0election seems, it is less crazy than the condition\u00a0of our country.<\/p>\n Just look\u00a0at\u00a0the generation\u00a0that supplies most of our leaders.\u00a0The Baby Boomers\u00a0are\u00a0entering retirement in\u00a0a state of actuarial bankruptcy:\u00a064% of those over\u00a0the age of\u00a055 have less than\u00a0a year\u2019s worth of savings\u00a0to their name.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/b><\/strong>That is a problem,\u00a0especially\u00a0when\u00a0this is the only country where you have to pay\u00a0up to\u00a010 times as much for simple\u00a0medicines\u00a0as\u00a0you would\u00a0pay\u00a0anywhere else.<\/b><\/strong> America\u2019s\u00a0overpriced\u00a0healthcare\u00a0system\u00a0might help\u00a0subsidize the rest of the world.\u00a0But\u00a0that doesn\u2019t help\u00a0the\u00a0Americans who can\u2019t afford it, and they\u2019ve\u00a0started to notice.<\/p>\n Our youngest citizens\u00a0may not have huge medical bills, but\u00a0their college tuition\u00a0keeps on increasing\u00a0faster than the rate of inflation, adding more\u00a0every year\u00a0to our $1.3 trillion dollar mountain of student debt.<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0America has\u00a0become\u00a0the only\u00a0country\u00a0where students take on\u00a0loans\u00a0they\u00a0can never\u00a0escape,\u00a0not\u00a0even by declaring bankruptcy.\u00a0Stuck in this\u00a0broken system,\u00a0Millennials\u00a0are the first generation who expect their own lives to be worse than the lives of their parents.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n While\u00a0American\u00a0families\u2019\u00a0expenses\u00a0have been increasing\u00a0relentlessly, their incomes have been\u00a0stagnant. In real dollars, the median household makes less\u00a0money today\u00a0than\u00a0it made\u00a017 years ago.\u00a0Nearly half of Americans wouldn\u2019t be able to come up with $400 if they needed it for an emergency.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n Yet while households struggle to keep up\u00a0with\u00a0the challenges of everyday life, the government\u00a0is\u00a0wasting trillions of\u00a0dollars of\u00a0taxpayer\u00a0money\u00a0on\u00a0faraway\u00a0wars.\u00a0Right now\u00a0we\u2019re fighting five\u00a0of them:\u00a0in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n Now, not\u00a0everyone<\/i><\/em>\u00a0is\u00a0hurting.\u00a0In the wealthy\u00a0suburbs\u00a0that ring Washington, DC,\u00a0people are doing just fine. Where I work in\u00a0Silicon\u00a0Valley, people are doing\u00a0just\u00a0great.\u00a0But\u00a0most Americans don\u2019t live by the Beltway\u00a0or\u00a0the\u00a0San Francisco Bay.\u00a0Most Americans\u00a0haven\u2019t been\u00a0part of\u00a0that prosperity. It shouldn\u2019t be surprising\u00a0to see people\u00a0vote\u00a0for Bernie Sanders, or\u00a0for Donald Trump,\u00a0who is\u00a0the only outsider\u00a0left\u00a0in the race.<\/p>\n Very few people who vote for President have ever thought of doing something so\u00a0extreme\u00a0as running for President.\u00a0The people\u00a0who\u00a0run\u00a0are often\u00a0polarizing. This election year, both major candidates are imperfect people, to say the least.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t agree with\u00a0everything\u00a0Donald Trump\u00a0has said and done\u2014 and I don\u2019t think the millions of\u00a0other\u00a0people voting for him do, either.\u00a0Nobody thinks his\u00a0comments about women were acceptable;\u00a0I agree\u00a0they were\u00a0clearly\u00a0offensive and inappropriate.\u00a0But\u00a0I don\u2019t think voters\u00a0pull\u00a0the lever\u00a0in order to endorse\u00a0a\u00a0candidate\u2019s\u00a0flaws.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not a lack of judgment that leads\u00a0Americans\u00a0to vote\u00a0for\u00a0Trump;\u00a0we\u2019re\u00a0voting for Trump\u00a0because\u00a0we\u00a0judge the\u00a0leadership\u00a0of our country to\u00a0have\u00a0failed.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n This\u00a0judgment\u00a0has been hard\u00a0to accept\u00a0for\u00a0some of\u00a0the\u00a0country\u2019s\u00a0most\u00a0fortunate,\u00a0socially prominent\u00a0people.\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0certainly\u00a0been hard\u00a0to accept\u00a0for\u00a0Silicon Valley, where many\u00a0people\u00a0have learned to keep\u00a0quiet\u00a0if they\u00a0dissent from the coastal bubble.\u00a0Louder\u00a0voices\u00a0have sent a message that they\u00a0do\u00a0not\u00a0intend to\u00a0tolerate\u00a0the views of\u00a0one\u00a0half\u00a0of the\u00a0country.<\/p>\n This\u00a0intolerance\u00a0has\u00a0taken on some\u00a0bizarre forms.\u00a0The\u00a0Advocate<\/i><\/em>,\u00a0a\u00a0magazine\u00a0which once\u00a0praised me as a \u201cgay innovator,\u201d\u00a0even published an\u00a0article saying that\u00a0as of\u00a0now\u00a0I am, and I quote, \u201cnot a gay man,\u201d because I don\u2019t agree with their politics. The lie behind the buzzword of \u201cdiversity\u201d could not be made more clear: if you don\u2019t\u00a0conform, then you don\u2019t count as \u201cdiverse,\u201d no matter what your\u00a0personal\u00a0background.<\/p>\n Faced with\u00a0such\u00a0contempt, why do voters still support Donald Trump?Even if they think\u00a0the\u00a0American situation\u00a0is\u00a0serious, why would they think that\u00a0Trump, of all people, could\u00a0make it\u00a0any\u00a0better?<\/p>\n I\u00a0think it\u2019s\u00a0because of the\u00a0big things that Trump gets right.\u00a0For example: free trade has not worked\u00a0out\u00a0well for all of America. It helps\u00a0Trump\u00a0that the other side just doesn\u2019t get it:\u00a0all\u00a0of our\u00a0elites preach\u00a0free\u00a0trade.\u00a0The highly educated people who make\u00a0public\u00a0policy\u00a0explain that\u00a0cheap\u00a0imports\u00a0make everyone a winner, according to economic theory.\u00a0But in\u00a0actual practice, we\u2019ve lost tens of thousands of factories and\u00a0millions of\u00a0jobs\u00a0to foreign trade. The heartland\u00a0has\u00a0been devastated.<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0Maybe\u00a0policymakers really\u00a0believe that\u00a0nobody loses,\u00a0or maybe they\u00a0don\u2019t worry about it too much\u00a0because they think they\u2019re\u00a0among the winners.<\/p>\n The\u00a0sheer\u00a0size of the US trade deficit\u00a0shows that something has\u00a0gone\u00a0badly wrong. The\u00a0most developed\u00a0country in the world should be\u00a0exporting capital to\u00a0less developed\u00a0countries; instead,\u00a0the United States\u00a0is importing\u00a0more than $500 billion dollars\u00a0every year. That\u00a0money\u00a0flows into financial assets; it\u00a0distorts our economy\u00a0in favor of more\u00a0banking and\u00a0more\u00a0financialization;\u00a0and\u00a0it\u00a0gives\u00a0the\u00a0well-connected people\u00a0who benefit a reason to defend\u00a0the status quo.\u00a0But not everyone benefits,\u00a0and\u00a0Trump voters\u00a0know it.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n Trump voters are\u00a0also\u00a0tired of\u00a0war.\u00a0We have been at war for 15\u00a0years,\u00a0and\u00a0we have spent more than\u00a0$4.6 trillion dollars.\u00a0More than\u00a0two\u00a0million\u00a0people have lost their lives,\u00a0and\u00a0more than\u00a05,000 American\u00a0soldiers have\u00a0been killed.\u00a0But\u00a0we haven\u2019t won.\u00a0The Bush administration promised that $50 billion dollars could bring democracy\u00a0to\u00a0Iraq; instead,\u00a0we\u2019ve\u00a0squandered\u00a040 times as much\u00a0to bring about\u00a0chaos.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n Yet\u00a0even after these bipartisan failures,\u00a0the Democratic party is more hawkish\u00a0today\u00a0than at any time since\u00a0it began the war in\u00a0Vietnam.\u00a0Harking back to the\u00a0no-fly-zone\u00a0that\u00a0Bill Clinton\u00a0enforced\u00a0over Iraq\u00a0before Bush\u2019s failed war, now\u00a0Hillary Clinton\u00a0has\u00a0called\u00a0for a no-fly zone over Syria.\u00a0<\/b><\/strong>Incredibly, that would be a mistake even more reckless than\u00a0invading\u00a0Iraq. Since\u00a0most of\u00a0the planes flying over\u00a0Syria today are Russian planes,\u00a0Clinton\u2019s proposed\u00a0course of action would\u00a0do worse than\u00a0involve us in a messy civil war:\u00a0it would risk\u00a0a\u00a0direct\u00a0nuclear\u00a0conflict.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n What explains this\u00a0eagerness to escalate a dangerous situation? How can Hillary Clinton\u00a0be so\u00a0wildly\u00a0overoptimistic\u00a0about\u00a0the\u00a0outcome of\u00a0war?\u00a0I would\u00a0suggest\u00a0that it comes from a lot of\u00a0practice. For a long time, our elites have been\u00a0in the habit of denying difficult realities.<\/p>\n That\u2019s how bubbles form.\u00a0Whenever there is a\u00a0hard\u00a0problem, but\u00a0people\u00a0want to believe\u00a0in an easy solution, they\u00a0will\u00a0be tempted\u00a0to deny reality\u00a0and\u00a0inflate a bubble.\u00a0Something about the\u00a0experience of the\u00a0Baby Boomers, whose lives have been so much easier than their parents\u2019 or their childrens\u2019, has led them to\u00a0buy into\u00a0bubbles\u00a0again and again.\u00a0The trade\u00a0bubble says everyone\u2019s a winner.\u00a0The war bubble says\u00a0victory is just around the corner. But these overoptimistic stories\u00a0simply\u00a0haven\u2019t been true.\u00a0And voters\u00a0are tired of being lied to.<\/p>\n It\u00a0was both insane and\u00a0somehow\u00a0inevitable\u00a0that\u00a0DC\u00a0insiders\u00a0expected this\u00a0election to be a\u00a0rerun\u00a0between\u00a0the\u00a0two political dynasties\u00a0who\u00a0led us through\u00a0the\u00a0two\u00a0most\u00a0gigantic\u00a0financial bubbles of our time.\u00a0President George W. Bush presided over the inflation of a\u00a0housing bubble\u00a0so big that\u00a0its\u00a0collapse is\u00a0still causing economic stagnation today.\u00a0But\u00a0what\u2019s\u00a0strangely forgotten\u00a0is\u00a0that\u00a0last decade\u2019s\u00a0housing bubble was just an attempt to make up\u00a0for\u00a0the gains that had been lost in\u00a0the\u00a0decade before that.\u00a0In the 1990s, President Bill Clinton presided over\u00a0an\u00a0enormous\u00a0stock market bubble\u00a0and a devastating\u00a0crash\u00a0in 2000,\u00a0just\u00a0as his\u00a0second\u00a0term was coming to an end.\u00a0That\u2019s how long the same people have been\u00a0pursuing\u00a0the same\u00a0disastrous\u00a0policies<\/b><\/strong>.<\/p>\n Now that somebody different is in the running,\u00a0someone who rejects the\u00a0false reassuring\u00a0stories that\u00a0tell us everything is fine,\u00a0his\u00a0larger than life\u00a0persona attracts a lot of attention.\u00a0Nobody would\u00a0suggest that\u00a0Donald Trump\u00a0is\u00a0a \u201chumble\u201d\u00a0man.\u00a0But\u00a0the big things he\u2019s right about amount to a much-needed\u00a0dose of\u00a0humility\u00a0in our politics.\u00a0Very unusually for a presidential candidate, he has questioned the\u00a0core\u00a0concept of American \u201cexceptionalism.\u201d\u00a0He doesn\u2019t think the force of\u00a0optimism alone can change reality without hard work.<\/p>\n Just as much as it\u2019s about making America great,\u00a0Trump\u2019s\u00a0agenda is about making America a normal country.\u00a0A normal country doesn\u2019t have a half trillion dollar trade deficit.\u00a0A normal country\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0fight\u00a05 simultaneous\u00a0undeclared\u00a0wars.\u00a0In a normal country, the government actually does its job.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n And\u00a0today\u00a0it\u2019s important to recognize that\u00a0the\u00a0government\u00a0has\u00a0a job to do.\u00a0Voters are tired of hearing conservative politicians say that government never works.\u00a0They know the government wasn\u2019t always\u00a0this\u00a0broken. The Manhattan Project, the Interstate Highway System, and the Apollo Program \u2013 whatever you think of these ventures, you cannot doubt the competence of the government that got them done.\u00a0But\u00a0we have fallen\u00a0very\u00a0far from that standard, and we\u00a0cannot let free market ideology\u00a0serve as an excuse for decline.<\/p>\n No matter what happens in this election, what Trump represents isn\u2019t crazy and it\u2019s not\u00a0going away.\u00a0He\u00a0points\u00a0toward\u00a0a new Republican party\u00a0beyond\u00a0the dogmas of\u00a0Reaganism.\u00a0He points\u00a0even beyond\u00a0the remaking\u00a0of one party\u00a0to\u00a0a new American politics that overcomes denial, rejects bubble thinking, and reckons with reality. When\u00a0the\u00a0distracting spectacles of this election season are\u00a0forgotten and the\u00a0history of our time\u00a0is written, the only important question will be whether or not that new politics came too late.<\/p>\n Things I’ve learned in the last two days.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n + 99.999% of startups you and I will invest in will fail. I received this yesterday. I took out the name of the company because miracles might still happen. It really makes your day when you get a letter in plain envelope telling you that one of your investments in now in the Bankruptcy Court.<\/p>\n + Nobody listens. Actually I learned this a long time ago. Unless your signature is on their<\/strong> salary check, they won’t listen and they will continue on to do something dumb and dumber.<\/p>\n + Exercise really works. Go a day without it and you feel awful. Go for two days without it and you feel you’re ready to meet your maker. At least that’s how it works for me.<\/p>\n \u00a0+ Harper’s magazine has a wonderful article called “Tennis Lessons.<\/em>” This is an article I really relate to. Click here<\/strong>.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n New York Skyline jumping.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n I took this photo from Central Park’s Sheep Meadow on Sunday. It’s looking south. Note the new buildings. They’ve jumped another thirty or storeys, rising up to a hundred floors or so. The idea was that every Russian oligarch would buy a $90 million apartment, hence parking his money in our wonderful city. Sadly, it’s not working out. There aren’t enough Russian oligarchs and the market for high-priced New York City apartments got too hot. Now prices are falling. And some of the developers are slicing some of the single floor apartments into two and three cheaper apartments. \u00a0Maybe just $50 million a piece. What a bargain!<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>11:00 am EDT, October 31<\/p>\n![\"multimedia-bankruptcy\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Multimedia-Bankruptcy-1.jpg\")
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