{"id":36553,"date":"2016-11-10T09:44:28","date_gmt":"2016-11-10T14:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36553"},"modified":"2016-11-10T09:44:28","modified_gmt":"2016-11-10T14:44:28","slug":"what-now-three-schools-of-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36553","title":{"rendered":"What now? Three schools of thought"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are three schools of thought:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">1. Everything Trump said was for being elected. He&#8217;ll be more practical. He won&#8217;t make a trade war with China or Mexico.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">2. He&#8217;ll do everything he said, and more, though doing them will take longer than the first 100 days.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">3. You can&#8217;t predict anything. We&#8217;ll find out in January, when he ascends his golden throne. Meantime, bubblevision will be full of &#8220;experts&#8221; making predictions. My favorite stupid economist, Larry Summers, who nearly bankrupted Harvard when he was there as president, was mouthing off today on Bloomberg TV. He made no sense.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are, however, two certainties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ He will borrow hugely and build infrastructure. He loves building.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ He will spend hugely on the military.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hence stocks like CAT and MLM make sense for infrastructure building.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And LMT, BA, GD, \u00a0NOC and RTN make sense for defense spending.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There is unclarity: He will allow monies sitting overseas to come back to the U.S. for a 10% tax &#8212; not 35%. I don&#8217;t know what that will mean. For example, Apple has got the most money overseas. But Apple is not short of money. They&#8217;re just woefully short of ideas of what to do with it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Have I told you about my Apple Watch. Yesterday afternoon I looked for the time. The face was black. It had run out of battery.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Please explain, what use is a fancy $400 watch that can&#8217;t tell the time?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I was right yesterday. It was a big buying opportunity. It&#8217;s up again this morning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Headline.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36568\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Headline.jpg\" alt=\"headline\" width=\"500\" height=\"74\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Headline.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Headline-300x44.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I fear for Donald, because he&#8217;s unpredictable. And he may do some predictably stupid things. His belief that anything can be negotiated and everyone is overcharging should able to be restrained by his cabinet and Congress.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>All about IRR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Their \u00a0last two funds did great. This one won&#8217;t. That&#8217;s my new rule. Moreover they&#8217;re charging too much.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I just got a pitch for a new fund that will charge &#8212; are you waiting &#8212; 2.5% on the capital you committed &#8212; not the money they actually called, namely the cash you actually sent them. Also, they&#8217;ll charge 20% of everything over a 10% IRR &#8220;hurdle rate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">IRR, as a measurement of investment success s*cks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Try this: I buy something for $1 and sell it for $2 in 12 months. That a 100% IRR. But, let&#8217;s say I sell it for $2 in six months. That&#8217;s a 434% IRR.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This IRR encourages funds (and real estate syndications) to sell early. They leap the &#8220;hurdle&#8221; and get their commission faster.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Things I&#8217;ve learned:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ WAZE is the great car travel app ever. It alerts you to police traps. And diverts you around traffic. But it sucks battery on your iPhone. You need a Mophie or a plug into your car&#8217;s cigarette lighter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I love watching pill commercials. I love listening to their warnings. Why would I want that pimple gone when I might kill myself? I&#8217;m reading and researching pills and ointments my doctors prescribe. The side-effects are horrible. Feeling better is best done the old-fashioned way &#8212; exercise, losing weight, resting (napping), and staying away from bad stuff &#8212; like too much booze and awful food.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+\u00a0Pope Francis allegedly told a reporter that the Roman Catholic Church will likely never permit women to serve as priests. Now there&#8217;s enlightenment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>You need a good laugh. This is hysterical.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 356px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-36553-1\" width=\"356\" height=\"400\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/v\u00e9lo.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/v\u00e9lo.mp4\">https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/v\u00e9lo.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The ban has been lifted on tastelessness.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/HillaryinJail.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/HillaryinJail.jpg\" alt=\"hillaryinjail\" width=\"600\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/HillaryinJail.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/HillaryinJail-300x226.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>We elected a new President and legalized weed in a few more states<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/GettingHigh.png..png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36570\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/GettingHigh.png..png\" alt=\"gettinghigh-png\" width=\"600\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/GettingHigh.png..png 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/GettingHigh.png.-300x222.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I smoked that that stuff about 30 years ago and tried it again about 15 years ago. Modern science has made Marijuana so incredibly strong it&#8217;s positively dangerous. I guess I&#8217;m a crabby old white man!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who&#8217;s going to Portland this afternoon to visit two grandchildren, one of whom &#8212; Eleanor &#8212; is celebrating her third birthday. I snagged an ultra- cheap fare on Alaska Air (ALK) which has just opened the Newark to Portland, OR route. The plane is full. ALK&#8217;s P\/E is 10.25% It actually pays a 1.5% dividend yield.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ALKYTD.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36562\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ALKYTD.jpg\" alt=\"alkytd\" width=\"635\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ALKYTD.jpg 635w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ALKYTD-300x163.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 635px) 100vw, 635px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s Eleanor, 3. She doesn&#8217;t believe in combs or brushes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ElanorinBoots.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36566\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ElanorinBoots.jpg\" alt=\"elanorinboots\" width=\"350\" height=\"660\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ElanorinBoots.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/ElanorinBoots-159x300.jpg 159w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hence my birthday present to her is this wonderful beanie.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/badhairday.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36565\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/badhairday.jpg\" alt=\"badhairday\" width=\"256\" height=\"295\" \/><br \/>\n<\/a>From eBay for $3. Three for three. Perfect Zen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are three schools of thought: 1. Everything Trump said was for being elected. He&#8217;ll be more practical. He won&#8217;t make a trade war with China or Mexico. 2. He&#8217;ll do everything he said, and more, though doing them will take longer than the first 100 days. 3. You can&#8217;t predict anything. We&#8217;ll find out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36553"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36553\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36574,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36553\/revisions\/36574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}