{"id":36576,"date":"2016-11-11T10:07:29","date_gmt":"2016-11-11T15:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36576"},"modified":"2016-11-11T15:57:45","modified_gmt":"2016-11-11T20:57:45","slug":"opportunities-abound-but-the-volatility-is-nose-bleed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36576","title":{"rendered":"Opportunities abound. But the volatility is nose bleed"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’m optimistic about the Trump Presidency. Despite all the stuff that offends people — the racism, the bigotry, the misogyny, etc. — there are some factors going in our favor:<\/p>\n

1. He understands business. He’s richer than most people.<\/p>\n

2. His ego and her narcissism won’t let him fail. He wants to be remembered as one of America’s great presidents. Maybe the best.<\/p>\n

3. He doesn’t read. He doesn’t study. But he listens, has good instincts and values talented people. His rumored appointments look promising.<\/p>\n

You have to be optimistic. You can’t wallow in the hate and self-pity I’m reading in the New Yorker (“An American Tragedy<\/em>” — click here,<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong> the New York Times, or in Vanity Fair in Aaron Sorkin’s letter to his kids. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

All the pundits are pitying themselves for being so wrong. They missed how much Trump appealed and how little Hillary did. All the pollsters are hiding, their heads hanging in shame.<\/p>\n

Trump will screw up big-time. But he’ll also succeed big-time — just as he has in his life.<\/p>\n

It will be a fun ride — if you can stand it.<\/p>\n

It will be totally unpredictable. It’s the nature of his real estate business. It’s total opportunistic. A property comes along. You grab it. You develop it. You wait an eternity for local approvals. Then you build like crazy before the next cyclical downturn.<\/p>\n

Because real estate is unpredictable, Donald is unpredictable. And stockmarkets will be unpredictable. Don’t try to predict this.<\/p>\n

I love this recent warning from a famous economic guru:<\/p>\n

\"davidstockman\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For more of that Stockman prediction, click here.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday all the big names in tech dropped dramatically. Amazon, Facebook.Microsoft, Google.<\/p>\n

No one could figure why. The pundits tried to blame it on Trump. Amazon was down because Bezos owns the Washington Post and it wrote stuff about Trump which he didn’t like. And Trump threatened.<\/p>\n

Amazon was down, because Apple does too much manufacturing in China, keeps too much money abroad and Apple CEO Tim Cook raised money for Hillary.<\/p>\n

Investopedia wrote:<\/p>\n

Over the course of last year\u2019s surreal election cycle, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN<\/a>) CEO<\/a> Jeff Bezos and then Republican nominee Donald Trump sparred several times on social media as well as through television interviews.<\/p>\n

Trump said that<\/a> Amazon had a \u201chuge anti-trust problem,\u201d and added that \u201cif I become president, oh, do they have problems. They\u2019re going to have such problems.\u201d Bezos, who has Democrat and Libertarian<\/a> leanings, responded with a #sendDonaldtospace hashtag and said that he would reserve space for Trump on the company\u2019s Blue Origin rockets. The Washington Post, which is owned by Bezos, assigned 20 reporters to investigate Trump and the team uncovered some embarrassing details about his charity foundation<\/a>.The real estate mogul has accused Bezos of using the paper to protect his business interests.<\/p>\n

Yesterday, my friends bought heavily at the low of the day and by close, tech losses had been cut. But were still down big-time.<\/div>\n

It wasn’t pleasant. I own lots of Facebook and Amazon. My Berkshire Hathaway, Honeywell, Disney and Lockeed Martin did well. However. they didn’t make up for my tech losses.<\/p>\n

The BIG Volatilities — stockmarket strategies:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

My friend bought the triple short S&P 500 ETF at $12.70. He figured it would skyrocket as the markets cratered once Trump was anointed. It didn’t work. It’s now around $12.09. I’ve never liked triple ETFs. They rebalance every evening — a process I don’t understand, except it seems to remove profits for traders. The deal with these things is don’t hold them overnight, or, my preference, don’t go near them.<\/p>\n

\"spxsfivedays\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The BIG trade of the week, however, was shorting Smith and Wesson, the gun maker. Their sales skyrocket when Presidents who hate guns are anointed. Their sales plummet when they a gun-friendly president, like Mr. Trump, is anointed.<\/p>\n

\"swhcdown\"<\/a><\/p>\n

One friend is a successful trader — up about 26% this year. But, right now, he’s staying in cash. The volatility is too crazy, even for him.<\/p>\n

This is is no longer a “Buy and Hold” market. With Trump around, that concept is now firmly buried.<\/p>\n

\"HarryNewton\"<\/a>
\nHarry Newton, who is now in Portland, where it’s not raining. Miracles happen. The first time Susan and I came to Portland was one Thanksgiving. It was cold, wet, raining and totally miserable. We spent our visit shopping at REI, Patagonia, Columbia and North Face. Portland is the capital of wet weather outdoor gear. For this trip we brought enough raingear to survive a monsoon. And of course, this morning, it’s not raining . In fact the sunrise was beautiful. Maybe we should apply the same logic to a Trump Presidency?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m optimistic about the Trump Presidency. Despite all the stuff that offends people — the racism, the bigotry, the misogyny, etc. — there are some factors going in our favor: 1. He understands business. He’s richer than most people. 2. His ego and her narcissism won’t let him fail. He wants to be remembered as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36576"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36576\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36590,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36576\/revisions\/36590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}