{"id":36722,"date":"2016-12-01T13:34:07","date_gmt":"2016-12-01T18:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36722"},"modified":"2016-12-01T13:34:07","modified_gmt":"2016-12-01T18:34:07","slug":"the-black-swan-events-that-are-donald-j-trumps-stockmarket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=36722","title":{"rendered":"The Black Swan Events that are Donald J. Trump&#8217;s stockmarket"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This hasn&#8217;t been easy, which is why you haven&#8217;t heard from me in several days. Three slides from CNBC today tell all.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">First, Mr. Trump is killing tech stocks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Techstocks.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36741\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Techstocks.png\" alt=\"techstocks\" width=\"350\" height=\"238\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Techstocks.png 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Techstocks-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Second, he&#8217;s doing wonders for &#8220;industrial&#8221;stocks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/industrials.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36742\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/industrials.png\" alt=\"industrials\" width=\"350\" height=\"222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/industrials.png 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/industrials-300x190.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And for defense stocks &#8212; like my favorite LMT. Here&#8217;s the latest month:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/LMTMonth.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36744\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/LMTMonth.jpg\" alt=\"lmtmonth\" width=\"643\" height=\"314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/LMTMonth.jpg 643w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/LMTMonth-300x147.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And stocks like HON and GM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Third, coincidentally OPEC said it would cut\u00a0oil production. The price of oil and oil stocks skyrocketed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/OilHighs.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36743\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/OilHighs.png\" alt=\"oilhighs\" width=\"350\" height=\"396\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/OilHighs.png 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/OilHighs-265x300.png 265w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fourth, interest rates have risen strongly, benefiting banks. Here&#8217;s the financial ETF of the last month:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/XLFLastmonth.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36745\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/XLFLastmonth.jpg\" alt=\"xlflastmonth\" width=\"635\" height=\"358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/XLFLastmonth.jpg 635w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/XLFLastmonth-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 635px) 100vw, 635px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The gurus call this &#8220;sector rotation.&#8221; It&#8217;s isn&#8217;t easy to &#8220;play.&#8221; There seem to be two rules &#8212; old ones no less:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Diversification. I&#8217;ve been far too invested in tech stocks &#8212; though NVDA has been a standout, until today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When a stock drops 10+% from its peak, it&#8217;s probably a good idea to loosen up. That&#8217;s called Harry&#8217;s Inviolate Stop Lose Rule.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t like the idea of loosening up on Amazon. It&#8217;s only fallen 6% from its recent peak. And, most importantly, everybody is buying only from Amazon these days. My friends have given up stores and malls. Their logic is &#8220;once you&#8217;ve seen a mall, you&#8217;ve seen them all.&#8221; (Sorry about that.) Here&#8217;s Amazon over the past month. I&#8217;d buy more of it, except that I already own so much.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/AmazonOvertheLastmonth.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36746\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/AmazonOvertheLastmonth.jpg\" alt=\"amazonoverthelastmonth\" width=\"639\" height=\"346\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/AmazonOvertheLastmonth.jpg 639w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/AmazonOvertheLastmonth-300x162.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stay away from store-based retailers &#8212; unless they sell something unique. Most don&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Never invest in startups. Never invest in private companies.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ 99% of them fail. Maybe higher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ You always get the worst pick. They best go to friends and family. The second best go to the best venture capitalists &#8212; the ones who appear on CNBC and Bloomberg. The worst go to you. They call that sucking hind t*t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Their founder\/entrepreneurs don&#8217;t listen. So, whatever advice your proffer &#8212; as a board member or a shareholder &#8212; they won&#8217;t listen. Trust me. Nobody listens.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ They don&#8217;t report like a public company &#8212; quarterly, annually etc. so you never know what&#8217;s happening. Which may be good, since what&#8217;s happening is often bad.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ You can&#8217;t sell your shares. There&#8217;s no market for the stock you own. And even, if there were, the SEC would put so many roadblocks ahead of you that slitting your wrists would seem like a better option. Item: A friend is trying to sell his stock in a small public company. The company has put a restriction on his stock that he can only sell 5,000 shares a day. He wants to sell hundreds of thousands. The company is afraid that his sales will be &#8220;deleterious&#8221; to the price of the stock. \u00a0My spell checked tried to change deleterious to delirious. Same thing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Some private companies go public. Their shares plummet. So they reverse split. Then they do something really stupid &#8212; hire Computershare to &#8220;manage&#8221; their outstanding shares. Which then sends Harry a letter telling me &#8220;Your immediate attention required&#8221; otherwise they&#8217;re giving my shares to &#8220;Unclaimed Property&#8221; of New York State. Calling them involves a one hour wait on hold &#8212; I don&#8217;t make this up. Or you can register with their web site, which I did. It included creating this:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/ThisisStupid.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36734\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/ThisisStupid.jpg\" alt=\"thisisstupid\" width=\"104\" height=\"106\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">After half an hour of every conceivable idiot &#8220;security&#8221; question &#8212; like my father&#8217;s middle name (he didn&#8217;t have one). And finally after\u00a0sending my verification emails, I get this:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/WelcomeComputerShare.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36735\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/WelcomeComputerShare.jpg\" alt=\"welcomecomputershare\" width=\"721\" height=\"224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/WelcomeComputerShare.jpg 721w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/WelcomeComputerShare-300x93.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fortunately the address they have for me is semi-accurate, since they didn&#8217;t give me a chance to fix it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Dealing with all this nonsense is simply too time consuming. It&#8217;s cutting into my tennis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In short, never invest in private companies. NEVER.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>CHECK. CHECK. CHECK.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Check that you have only one action item in each email you send. Unless it&#8217;s flattery &#8212; when the more the better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Check that all your keyboard needed was cleaning &#8212; before you ordered a new one.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Check your grammar and spelling mistakes before issuing that important company press release. It&#8217;s is not the same as its. And companys president is not the same as company&#8217;s president. And there is a difference between your and you&#8217;re.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The InspireClear iPhone 7 plus case.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Susan bought one to protect her new phone. \u00a0We just installed it. I&#8217;m impressed with its quality, thick plastic screen protector and installation tools that make sure you don&#8217;t have any bubbles on the screen.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/SaharaCase.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36723\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/SaharaCase.jpg\" alt=\"saharacase\" width=\"300\" height=\"285\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s $21.95 from Amazon. Worth every penny if it saves your $800 iPhone plus. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/B01KGN8DKO\/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o04_s00?ie=UTF8&amp;th=1\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Susan loves her iPhone 7 plus. Its big screen is great for grandkids&#8217; photos, videos and FaceTime.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I still have a the iPhone 6. Enshrouded by a Mophie. I doubt I&#8217;ll get an iPhone 7. I tested Susan&#8217;s camera against mine. And I like my pictures better. Go figure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Favorite stupid cartooon<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/RaisetheDead.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36752\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/RaisetheDead.png\" alt=\"raisethedead\" width=\"330\" height=\"234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/RaisetheDead.png 330w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/RaisetheDead-300x213.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 330px) 100vw, 330px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Trump Picks El Chapo to Run D.E.A.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Ed-Chapo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-36730\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Ed-Chapo.jpg\" alt=\"ed-chapo\" width=\"400\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Ed-Chapo.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Ed-Chapo-300x210.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)-Just days after picking Betsy DeVos to run the Department of Education, President-elect Donald Trump has tapped another wealthy outsider by naming Joaqu\u00edn Guzm\u00e1n, known as &#8220;El Chapo,&#8221; to head the Drug Enforcement Administration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In an official statement, Trump said that El Chapo&#8217;s &#8220;tremendous success in the private sector&#8221; showed that he has what it takes to &#8220;shake things up&#8221; at the D.E.A.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trump&#8217;s appointment of the former drug lord surprised many in Washington, in no small part because acrimony between the two allegedly prompted El Chapo, in 2015, to put a hundred-million-dollar bounty on Trump&#8217;s head.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But, appearing on CNN, the Trump surrogate Kellyanne Conway said that the selection of El Chapo should surprise no one. &#8220;Mr. Trump always said that he would surround himself with the best people,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When asked why Trump had readily offered a job to El Chapo while still mulling the fate of another former adversary, Mitt Romney, Conway said, &#8220;El Chapo might not have voted for Mr. Trump, but that&#8217;s because he&#8217;s Mexican and in jail, and Mitt Romney is neither.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The appointment of the former drug kingpin is far from a done deal, however, as associates of El Chapo report that he is &#8220;concerned&#8221; that being a member of the Trump Administration would be bad for his brand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who&#8217;s finding that dividends from syndicated real estate are more predictable than &#8220;profits&#8221; from owning stocks. Except that Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) is a standout winner. But I don&#8217;t know why.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n<\/script>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This hasn&#8217;t been easy, which is why you haven&#8217;t heard from me in several days. Three slides from CNBC today tell all. First, Mr. Trump is killing tech stocks. Second, he&#8217;s doing wonders for &#8220;industrial&#8221;stocks: And for defense stocks &#8212; like my favorite LMT. Here&#8217;s the latest month: And stocks like HON and GM. Third, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36722"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36722\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36753,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36722\/revisions\/36753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}