{"id":38249,"date":"2017-05-10T13:56:26","date_gmt":"2017-05-10T17:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=38249"},"modified":"2017-05-10T13:56:26","modified_gmt":"2017-05-10T17:56:26","slug":"not-much-to-worry-about-but-that-doesnt-stop-us-worrying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=38249","title":{"rendered":"Not much to worry about. But that doesn&#8217;t stop us worrying"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Friends worry about:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ They have too much money in real estate.They don&#8217;t. Household formation and new business formation is strong.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Stock prices are too high. Some are.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Nobody seems to be worried about anything &#8212; since they can&#8217;t think of an imminent black swan event. Derivatives? Student loans? Lousy mortgage-backed securities? Nup. Think again. I&#8217;m striking out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are several amazing stats:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ 4.4% unemployment in the U.S. That&#8217;s full employment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The emergence of the sharing economy. Everyone is working part-time for someone else &#8212; e.g. Uber and TaskRabbit. For more, read this week&#8217;s New Yorker. The long, detailed article is called &#8220;The Gig is UP.&#8221; Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2017\/05\/15\/is-the-gig-economy-working\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ WeWork now has 38 offices in New York City. I have no idea how many businesses are in each one. Figure at least 100. Probably at least five thousand in total. Maybe more. And then there&#8217;s the Brooklyn Navy Yard, which has 330 businesses there, about 7,000 total employees. They have businesses with three to 200 people. Startups everywhere. Crye Precision is \u00a0a major sucess story at the Yard. New York&#8217;s startup scene is thriving.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Walmart is coming after Amazon.<\/strong><\/span> And pigs will fly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exhibit 1. Amazon&#8217;s stock versus Walmart over the past ten years. Which should you have owned?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazonversusWalmart.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38258\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazonversusWalmart.jpg\" alt=\"AmazonversusWalmart\" width=\"619\" height=\"311\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazonversusWalmart.jpg 619w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazonversusWalmart-300x151.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exhibit 2: Cover of the May 14 issue of <em>Bloomberg Businessweek:<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ComingforYouBezos.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38261\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ComingforYouBezos.jpg\" alt=\"ComingforYouBezos\" width=\"400\" height=\"536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ComingforYouBezos.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/ComingforYouBezos-224x300.jpg 224w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exhibit 3: The spread that begins the story:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Amazonwontknow.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38263\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Amazonwontknow.jpg\" alt=\"Amazonwontknow\" width=\"500\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Amazonwontknow.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Amazonwontknow-300x206.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Then you read the story. Oih, the story. You&#8217;d expect something awesome. You&#8217;d be wrong. Items in the story:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Walmart bought Jet.com for $3.3 billion and has paid its founder $244 million. The founder visits Walmart&#8217;s Bentonville headquarters once a month in a private company plane!<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Walmart has also bought Bonobos for $300 million, Modcloth for $75 million, Shoebuy for $70 million and Moosejaw for $51 million. You ever bought anything from any of these? Do you even know what they sell?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ None of these seem to be integrated into Walmart. I tried buying my favorite Canon G5X on Jet and Walmart. You won&#8217;t find it if you search for Canon G5X. If you keep fiddling you will eventually find it. It has no user reviews on either site (unlike Amazon which has zillions). And it&#8217;s skimpy on technical information. And, worse, it&#8217;s the same price as Amazon &#8212; to the penny.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ And here&#8217;s a delicious paragraph fromBusinessweek&#8217;s story: &#8220;Wal-Mart\u00a0a consistent &#8220;everyday low price&#8221; inside its stores. It&#8217;s one of the most sacrosanct brand promises in retail, practically inscribed onto holy tablets by Walton himself as a way to assure customers they won&#8217;t have to comparison-shop. The philosophy created problems on the web, though. Whenever the online price dropped below the in-store price, the merchants in Bentonville would balk. They were worried about siphoning away customers from their stores, which account for more than 97 percent of Wal-Mart&#8217;s sales.\u00a0The company was also hesitant to let outside sellers list their wares on Walmart.com. This &#8220;marketplace&#8221; idea generates half of Amazon&#8217;s unit sales. &#8230;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can read the entire Businessweek cover story <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2017-05-04\/can-wal-mart-s-expensive-new-e-commerce-operation-compete-with-amazon\">here.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>But seriously, don&#8217;t waste your time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My business of &#8220;searching&#8221; for investments is horribly frustrating. You&#8217;d figure that Businessweek would be onto something with a cover story headlined &#8220;They&#8217;re coming for you Bezos.&#8221; But Wal-Mart is no more &#8220;coming for&#8221; Bezos than I am for flying to the moon this afternoon. It&#8217;s very depressing. I once worked for Businessweek as a cub reporter.They were a much better magazine in the summer of 1968.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;ll stay with my Amazon shares. And I&#8217;ll continue to shop there.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Chicago from afar. <\/strong><\/span>Click on the image for the full effect.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazingSight.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-38269\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazingSight.jpg\" alt=\"AmazingSight\" width=\"800\" height=\"531\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazingSight.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazingSight-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/AmazingSight-768x510.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This magnificent image is from John Pratt&#8217;s web sit of amazing images. For the rest, go <a href=\"http:\/\/www.johnpratt.com\/items\/email\/2014\/amazing_pictures.html\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Doctor humor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;You&#8217;ll be fine,&#8221; the surgeon said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But, she asked, &#8220;How long will it be before I am able to have a normal sex life again doctor?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The surgeon paused and his face reddened as his facial expression became strange. The girl was alarmed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;What&#8217;s the matter Doctor? I will be all right, won&#8217;t I?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He replied, &#8220;Yes, you&#8217;ll be fine. It&#8217;s just that no one has ever asked me that question after having their tonsils out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Marriage Humour<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wife: &#8216;What are you doing?&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Husband: Nothing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wife: &#8216;Nothing&#8230;? You&#8217;ve been reading our marriage certificate for an hour.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Husband: &#8216;I was looking for the expiration date.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton,\u00a0who finds nothing untoward about Trump firing Comey. Think of it like this:\u00a0A policeman gives you a ticket. You have two choices. Pay the fine and get points on your licence, which will up your insurance. Or fire the policeman. Not a difficult choice. Except most of us can&#8217;t fire the policeman. But, if we could, wouldn&#8217;t we? When Trump&#8217;s casinos went broke in the early 1990s, the buzz on Wall Street was no one in America would lend him money. He was a bad businessman. Hence he turned to rich Russians who, amongst other things, needed to move money out of Russia. No one has any idea how much money was involved. I&#8217;m guessing enough to give the Russians some influence somewhere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Friends worry about: + They have too much money in real estate.They don&#8217;t. Household formation and new business formation is strong. + Stock prices are too high. Some are. + Nobody seems to be worried about anything &#8212; since they can&#8217;t think of an imminent black swan event. Derivatives? Student loans? Lousy mortgage-backed securities? Nup. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38249"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38249\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38278,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38249\/revisions\/38278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}