{"id":39508,"date":"2017-08-01T21:30:13","date_gmt":"2017-08-02T01:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=39508"},"modified":"2017-08-01T21:30:13","modified_gmt":"2017-08-02T01:30:13","slug":"salutary-lessons-from-long-term-funds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=39508","title":{"rendered":"Salutary lessons from long-term funds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is the performance of a private equity fund I own a little of.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Click on the chart if you can&#8217;t see all of it. Click to come back.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1_-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39525\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1_-1.jpg\" alt=\"HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1\" width=\"900\" height=\"510\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1_-1.jpg 900w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1_-1-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/HistoricalGrosMOC.pdf1_-1-768x435.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">After ten years, the fund&#8217;s value is now 1.55 times what we put in, which means it has averaged 4.48% a year in its 10 year life so far.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The fund should have sold all its holdings by now and returned a handsome profit to its owners. But it hasn&#8217;t &#8212; largely because it&#8217;s been a semi-horrible ten years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This fund is not untypical of those who started their life in the halcyon days of 2005-2006 (unsuspecting investors were easy to sell) &#8212; only to be hit by 2008, when everything fell apart.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">By contrast, Vanguard&#8217;s VTI &#8212; &#8220;total stock market ETF&#8221; &#8212; has achieved 7.95% a year over the same ten years. That&#8217;s much higher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Had I invested $1 million in this equity fund, I would now be worth $1,550,000. Had I put $1 million in VTI, I would now be worth $2,148,950 &#8212; or $598,950 more. I&#8217;d be 40% better off. (I did invest in the fund. And fortunately I invested also in VTI.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are several morals to this story:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Timing is critical. Committing yourself to long 10-year up-and-down business cycle is a big risk.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Funds tend to last longer because the management fees are so huge &#8212; often 2% of assets managed and 20% of profits. By contrast VTI charges 0.04% of assets managed and no % of profits. The difference between 2% and 0.04% puts a lot of money in your pocket, not the manager&#8217;s. That&#8217;s critical to understand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ What went on in previous fund generations (where returns were 30% to 40% a year) will not go on in a new one. That&#8217;s sort of Murphy&#8217;s Law of funds. I hope 2018 won&#8217;t be 2008. But you never know. See the next point.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ ETFs and publicly listed stocks are liquid. You can sell them when they hit your 15% stop loss threshold. And buy them back when they rise 15% from the bottom. \u00a0You can&#8217;t do that with private equity funds. You&#8217;re stuck with them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Don&#8217;t Do Stupid. <\/strong><\/span>That&#8217;s my long-term refrain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We&#8217;re no longer 23. We need to stop acting as if we were. The saga of friends:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ His trainer at the gym suggested a new jumping move. He missed and broke bones in his wrist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ It was March and icy. He slipped. His ankle now has a metal plate. His leg still hurts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ He had a stroke ten years ago. He&#8217;s fallen often since. This week he fell while trying to sit on his walker &#8212; a manoeuvre he&#8217;d never done before. He hit his head and blood poured from his ear.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Jared Kushner On Middle East Peace:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Achieving it is one of many tasks he&#8217;s been charged with solving.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">His words: <em>&#8220;What Do We Offer That&#8217;s Unique? I Don&#8217;t Know.<\/em>&#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Read the Kushner lecture to congressional interns, courtesy <em>Wired Magazine<\/em>. Click <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/jared-kushner-middle-east\/?mbid=nl_8117_p3&amp;CNDID=50123242\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Russia is sending 100,000 troops to Belarus for a military exercise.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In case you&#8217;re wondering, here&#8217;s where Belarus is:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Belarus.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39521\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Belarus.jpg\" alt=\"Belarus\" width=\"530\" height=\"307\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Belarus.jpg 530w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Belarus-300x174.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Greatest children pleaser &#8212; <\/span><\/strong>the\u00a0Intex Recreation 58426EP Crystal Blue Pool<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Pool.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39516\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Pool.png\" alt=\"Pool\" width=\"450\" height=\"338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Pool.png 450w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Pool-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Costs the grand sum of $10. 95. Click <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/B0006J2Q02\/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o03_s00?ie=UTF8&amp;psc=1\">here.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You&#8217;ll also need this to blow it up.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TireINflator.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39514\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TireINflator.jpg\" alt=\"TireINflator\" width=\"537\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TireINflator.jpg 537w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TireINflator-300x268.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 537px) 100vw, 537px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It will inflate your pool, your tires, your soccer balls, etc. A serious bargain at $29.99. Click <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/B00NFSNAS8\/ref=oh_aui_search_detailpage?ie=UTF8&amp;psc=1\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Comedians Protest Anthony Scaramucci&#8217;s Ouster<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/TheMooch3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39478\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/TheMooch3.jpg\" alt=\"TheMooch3\" width=\"600\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/TheMooch3.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/TheMooch3-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)-Thousands of angry comedians protested outside the White House on Monday afternoon, demanding the immediate reinstatement of the ousted communications director Anthony Scaramucci.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Chanting &#8220;Bring back Mooch,&#8221; the irate funnymen and funnywomen argued that the abrupt removal of Scaramucci was akin to taking the food out of their families&#8217; mouths.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Industry estimates had projected that Scaramucci&#8217;s presence on the White House staff would generate between four and five billion dollars for the comedy industry this year alone, a windfall that has now been erased.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Buddy Schlantz, the owner of the Bethesda, Maryland, comedy club known as the Laff Pagoda, travelled to the White House to protest what he called &#8220;a direct assault on the comedy community.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;Most comics I know are in a state of shock,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Years from now, comedians will be asking each other, `Where were you when you found out that Scaramucci was canned?&#8217; &#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>How times have changed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Sexchange.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39517\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Sexchange.png\" alt=\"Sexchange\" width=\"600\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Sexchange.png 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/Sexchange-300x226.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The logic of the court<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Reilly went to trial for armed robbery. The jury foreman came out and announced, &#8216;Not guilty.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;That&#8217;s grand!&#8217;\u00a0 shouted Reilly. &#8216;Does that mean I can keep the money?&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Almost there<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Mrs. Feeney shouted from the kitchen, &#8216;Is that you I hear spittin&#8217; in the vase on the mantle piece?&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;No,&#8217;\u00a0 said himself, &#8216;but I&#8217;m gettin&#8217; closer all the time.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The logic of bombs<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Paddy &amp; Mick find three grenades, so they decide to take them to a police station.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Mick: &#8220;What if one explodes before we get there?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Paddy: &#8220;We&#8217;ll lie and say we only found two.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who is pleased that one of our stocks &#8212; Apple &#8212; reported such great numbers and rose substantially after hours. Amazon also bounced back a little yesterday, suggesting that it may be worth buying this morning. SQ also bounced. Buy it on dips.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Grandfathers are really stupid. Here&#8217;s the real names of my grandkids:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From left, Sophie, Peter and Eleanor:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/GrandChildren.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39483\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/GrandChildren.jpg\" alt=\"GrandChildren\" width=\"500\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/GrandChildren.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/GrandChildren-300x244.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n<\/script>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is the performance of a private equity fund I own a little of. Click on the chart if you can&#8217;t see all of it. Click to come back. After ten years, the fund&#8217;s value is now 1.55 times what we put in, which means it has averaged 4.48% a year in its 10 year [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39508"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39508\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39530,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39508\/revisions\/39530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}