{"id":39936,"date":"2017-09-12T09:26:22","date_gmt":"2017-09-12T13:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=39936"},"modified":"2017-09-12T09:48:57","modified_gmt":"2017-09-12T13:48:57","slug":"dumb-luck-the-dreadful-k1-season-and-lessons-from-dumb-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=39936","title":{"rendered":"Dumb luck. The dreadful K1 season, and lessons from dumb investments"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m not shy. Yesterday was magnificent. I had no idea why the market bounced up so strongly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I had nothing to do with it. I sat idly by and prayed it didn&#8217;t mess up. Which it didn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s the last five days. It&#8217;s fun playing with these charts. When you just chart the S&amp;P 500, it looks great:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/spx5daysagain.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39963\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/spx5daysagain.jpg\" alt=\"spx5daysagain\" width=\"650\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/spx5daysagain.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/spx5daysagain-300x166.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But when you add in our favorite Square, the gain in the S&amp;P 500 looks puny &#8212; but not Square. The result is super great.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SPXversSQ.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39965\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SPXversSQ.jpg\" alt=\"SPXversSQ\" width=\"646\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SPXversSQ.jpg 646w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SPXversSQ-300x176.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m not making any changes to my portfolio. You can see it in the right hand column.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Investments that go to zero<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you use my 10% to 15% stop loss rule you&#8217;ll never lose all your money in the stockmarket.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sadly, stop loss rules don&#8217;t work with funds and syndications.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s now K1 time. I&#8217;m amazed how many of my erstwhile brilliant adventures went to zero. There was the biotech fund. There was the real estate fund that invested in over-priced, over-leveraged office buildings. There was the residential real estate development in the California desert.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And then there were the various individual ventures &#8212; a water bottling company (to compete with Avion), a gaming company, a mobile promotions company, a restaurant company.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They all ran out of money. Many could have made it, had they had the money.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">As I get older, I realize that:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Ideas for new businesses are plentiful.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Management skills to run them are scarce.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Nobody listens, especially entrepreneurs whose company I put money into.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Your own venture makes sense. It&#8217;s got a higher chance of success. It&#8217;s your money. You&#8217;ll work harder and listen attentively.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ For every $1 you spend on engineering, you need to spend $10 on marketing. Most people underestimate marketing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quora.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Quora.com,<\/a> which I&#8217;m currently fascinated by<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>What are some harsh lessons every person should learn?<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Answered by Srinath Nalluri, Research Assistant at Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ One wrong word from you can ruin a relationship you had built for years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ You may not be the best friend of your best friend.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Any human will give more importance to the person whom he loves compared to the person who loves him.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ You will be replaced no matter who you are.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ My favorite:\u00a0<em>There is no eternal happiness. All your life you will keep trying for one happiness after another. In other words, there will never be complete satisfaction.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The more intelligent you are, the fewer people you will have to interact with.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ No matter how well you prove it, people around you will believe what they want to believe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>North Korea is not stupid.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Australian news network, ABC, investigated how North Korea gets its money.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They published a piece on &#8220;<em>How businesses from Europe to Asia fund Kim Jong-un&#8217;s lavish lifestyle.<\/em>&#8221;\u00a0It&#8217;s called <em>&#8220;The Royal Economy.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It exists under plain sight of all the sanctions on North Korea. Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2017-09-11\/north-koreas-royal-economy-funds-kim-jong-un-lifestyle\/8888410?WT.mc_id=newsmail&amp;WT.tsrc=Newsmail\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>My favorite Paris hotel<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is the de Crillon on the Place de la Concorde at the bottom of the\u00a0Champs-\u00c9lys\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39952\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon3.jpg\" alt=\"DeCrillon3\" width=\"500\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon3.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon3-300x241.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The new owners just spent $300 million on on it. It&#8217;s totally over the top:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39953\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon2.jpg\" alt=\"DeCrillon2\" width=\"600\" height=\"402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon2.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon2-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39954\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon1.jpg\" alt=\"DeCrillon1\" width=\"600\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon1.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/DeCrillon1-300x140.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I spent a romantic weekend there in the late 1990s with Susan. It was incredible. I remember three things:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The ironed sheets on the bed. That&#8217;s the one luxury no one should live without.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The fresh roses in the room that were changed every few hours.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The lady who sat outside our door and catered to our every whim. Susan actually complained to me that they delivered her breakfast too fast (under five minutes).\u00a0She wasn&#8217;t ready.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We stayed in Suite 9. I was on \u00a0lecture tour and had an expense account. Ah. The good old days.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you book the connecting\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rosewoodhotels.com\/en\/hotel-de-crillon\/accommodation\/signature-suites\/grands-appartements\" target=\"_blank\">Les Grands Appartements<\/a>\u00a0suites and salon designed by Karl Lagerfeld, you&#8217;ll pay $38,200 a night, breakfast not included.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you book the Marie-Antoinette Suite, \u00a0the most stunning feature is the 400-square-foot terrace overlooking the Place de la Concorde\u2014the very spot where the young queen was guillotined in 1793.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If that doesn&#8217;t float your boat, nothing will.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Get rich by not flying<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Delta recently paid a nice lady $4,000 to give up her seat on their overbooked plane. For the full story, click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cntraveler.com\/story\/delta-paid-one-woman-dollar4000-to-give-up-her-seat?mbid=nl_091117_Daily&amp;CNDID=38760355&amp;spMailingID=11897668&amp;spUserID=MTM4MzM0MzUzODgxS0&amp;spJobID=1240947342&amp;spReportId=MTI0MDk0NzM0MgS2\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Buying something online?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m amazed at the discounts companies like LLBean, Eddie Bauer and Lands End are offering. And their stuff is good. Ways to get discounts:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Google &#8220;Savings coupon from XYZ Corp.&#8221; Amazing how often this dumb technique works.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Sign for their email list.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Call them on the phone. Email them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Sloane Stephens was chill about her winnings &#8211;<\/strong><\/span>&#8211; until she received her check.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SloaneStevens.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-39943\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SloaneStevens.jpg\" alt=\"SloaneStevens\" width=\"607\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SloaneStevens.jpg 607w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/SloaneStevens-300x212.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 607px) 100vw, 607px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">She played magnificently. I&#8217;m a fan.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Players received a total of $50.4 million in prize money &#8212;\u00a0\u00a0the largest purse in tennis history.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">May your children grow up to be tennis players.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>This is wonderful.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Kim Jong-un announced in a news conference that North Korea would be sending a man to the sun within ten years!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">A reporter said: &#8220;But the sun is very hot. How can your man land on the sun?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There was a stunned silence. Nobody knew how to react.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Then Kim Jong-un confidently answered &#8220;We will land at night&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The audience broke out in thunderous applause !<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Back in the White House, Donald Trump and his entourage were watching the news conference on TV.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When Trump heard what Kim had said, he sneered &#8211; &#8220;What an idiot. There is no sun at night time !&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">His cabinet broke up in thunderous applause !!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who notes with horror that they&#8217;re still selling Prevagen &#8212; that pill that improves your brain, courtesy jellyfish. Pevagen is classic snake oil. It doesn&#8217;t improve your brain and we have no idea what its long-term effects are. The dietary supplement industry &#8212; of which Prevagen is one product &#8212; can sell basically anything (it&#8217;s specifically not regulated) &#8212; though virtually everything the industry sells does <strong>not<\/strong> improve your health, and always hurts your pocketbook.<\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n<\/script>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m not shy. Yesterday was magnificent. I had no idea why the market bounced up so strongly. I had nothing to do with it. I sat idly by and prayed it didn&#8217;t mess up. Which it didn&#8217;t. Here&#8217;s the last five days. It&#8217;s fun playing with these charts. When you just chart the S&amp;P 500, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39936"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39971,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39936\/revisions\/39971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}