{"id":424,"date":"2010-01-25T08:03:52","date_gmt":"2010-01-25T13:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=424"},"modified":"2010-01-25T08:03:52","modified_gmt":"2010-01-25T13:03:52","slug":"time-to-get-out-cash-is-king","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=424","title":{"rendered":"Time to get out. Cash is king."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The reasons?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">1. We&#8217;ve had huge run from the March lows. Stocks are overvalued. I quoted the Economist on this \u00a0a few days ago.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">2. The extent of the horrendous commercial lending problem at our nation&#8217;s banks (especially the big ones) is becoming evident.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">3. Stock market indicators showing the market has definitely turned down. The last few days of horrible trading reflects that:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Turndown.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-440\" title=\"Turndown\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Turndown.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"538\" height=\"260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Turndown.jpg 538w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/Turndown-300x144.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The red line is the 200-day moving average. The blue line is the 50-day moving average.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">4. Worsening jobs and tightening consumer sentiment. The consumer is 70% of our economy. Without jobs and without a willingness to spend, our economy will sputter along. Corporate earnings will suffer.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">5. The worst is our wonderful president (whom I voted for) simply doesn&#8217;t get it. He wasted his first year pushing an agenda &#8212; health care &#8212; no one cares about. \u00a0Now he&#8217;s meddling with bank \u00a0bonuses and bank regulation. He continues to ignore our fundamental problem &#8212; jobs and the lack of a manufacturing base to provide those jobs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Richard Russell, the old-time newsletter writer from <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ww2.dowtheoryletters.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Dow Theory Letters,<\/a><\/strong> sums it up:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>January 22, 2010 <\/strong>&#8212;<strong> <\/strong>&#8220;Our new president is in trouble: Obama Seen as Anti-Business by 77% of U.S. Investors, Poll Says.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;<em>Bloomberg &#8211;<\/em>&#8211; U.S. investors overwhelmingly see President <a href=\"http:\/\/search.bloomberg.com\/search?q=Barack+Obama&amp;site=wnews&amp;client=wnews&amp;proxystylesheet=wnews&amp;output=xml_no_dtd&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;filter=p&amp;getfields=wnnis&amp;sort=date:D:S:d1\"><strong>Barack Obama<\/strong><\/a> as anti-business, and they question his ability to manage a financial crisis, according to a Bloomberg<em> <\/em>survey.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;The global quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers finds that 77 percent of U.S. respondents believe Obama is too anti-business and four-out-of-five are only somewhat confident or not confident of his ability to handle a financial emergency.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;The poll also finds a decline in Obama\u2019s overall favorability rating one year after taking office. He is viewed favorably by 27 percent of U.S. investors. In an October poll, 32 percent in the U.S. held a positive impression.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8221; &#8216;Investors no longer feel they can trust their instincts to take risks,&#8217; said poll respondent David Young, a managing director for a broker dealer in New   York. Young cited Obama\u2019s efforts to trim bonuses and earnings, make health care his top priority over jobs and plans to tax &#8216;the rich or advantaged.&#8217; &#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Russell Comment<\/strong> &#8212; Obama&#8217;s approval rating has collapsed. Americans are sick of Obama&#8217;s push for his confusing health bill &#8212; Americans are out of jobs and they are much more interested in finding work than fixing a broken health system with a mixed-up health bill. This is a President and a party in trouble.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">What&#8217;s going on?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(1) China is now the engine of economic progress for the free world. The Chinese economy has been &#8220;on fire,&#8221; and China&#8217;s leaders want their banks to cool it, and hold back on lending. The world&#8217;s fear, and this includes the US, is that if China slows down, the whole world will slow down. Thus, China has become &#8220;the new US&#8221; as far as international commerce is concerned. When China &#8220;cools it,&#8221; the rest of the world shudders.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(2) The unemployment problem in the US has become intractable. No amount of Fed spending and stimulus programs appears to be able to jump-start the US economy. Seventy percent of the US Gross Domestic Product is brought in by consumer spending. Consumers won&#8217;t spend while they are unemployed or fearful of losing their jobs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(3) Small business is the biggest source of hiring and job creation. Owners of small businesses are being taxed out of existence and they are totally confused as to what the government is going to do next. In other words, they are paralyzed, and when they don&#8217;t know what to do next, they do nothing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(4) Americans have lost confidence in their government. President Obama&#8217;s approval rating has plunged into the basement. Businessmen don&#8217;t know what Obama&#8217;s going to propose next. Americans are also disgusted with the greed and conniving of Wall Street, all with the approval of the government. And Americans are furious &#8212; while they are losing their jobs they read about multi-million dollar bonuses being passed out on Wall Street to bankers who American believe have caused the economic mess.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(5) American family wealth and savings have been destroyed by the bear market of 2008-09. This has prompted Americans to cut back on spending and save. Americans are sick and tired of the whole &#8220;new health plan&#8221; that Obama appears to be obsessed with. Americans are more worried about government spending and unemployment, and they fear the nation has elected an out-and-out socialist in Democrat&#8217;s clothing. Confusion reigns in the nation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(6) Americans sense that the US is losing its leadership in the world, and that China is the &#8220;new US.&#8221; For the first time in history, Americans fear that their children will not have a better life than they&#8217;ve had.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">(7) American today are very fixed on economics and the stock market. They lost a bundle during 2008-09, and with the Dow only having recovered 52% of its bear market losses, and housing prices having been whacked, Americans are very confused and fearful regarding the future. Net family wealth has been decimated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I did not not enjoy the weekend.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"> I spent too much of it reading doom and gloom. Among the better pieces:<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">+ <em><strong>Up from Globalism<\/strong><\/em>. Detailed logic as to what the U.S. needs to re-assert and encourage \u00a0its manufacturing base. And some ideas on how to do it. <strong>Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harpers.org\/archive\/2010\/01\/0082768\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\">+ <em><strong>Stop the Insanity<\/strong><\/em>. by Newt Gingrich. A five part call to reduce taxes. Click<\/span><\/span> <\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/forbes\/2010\/0118\/opinions-einstein-debt-stimulus-on-my-mind.html\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+ <strong><em>They still don&#8217;t get it<\/em><\/strong> by<\/span><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/01\/23\/opinion\/23herbert.html?scp=2&amp;sq=bob%20herbert&amp;st=cse\" target=\"_blank\"> Bob Herbert.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\">+ <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><em>A Rift at the Fed over the bailout of A.I.G<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\">.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"> How Geithner gave the house away.<\/span><\/span> <a href=\"http:\/\/dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/01\/24\/a-rift-at-the-fed-over-the-bailout-of-aig\/?scp=2&amp;sq=Louise%20Story&amp;st=cse\" target=\"_blank\">Click here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+ <em><strong>More jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs<\/strong><\/em> by<\/span><strong> <\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/01\/24\/opinion\/24friedman.html?em\" target=\"_blank\">Thomas Friedman.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+ <strong><em>After the Massachusetts Massacre<\/em><\/strong> by<\/span><strong> <\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/01\/24\/opinion\/24Rich.html?scp=2&amp;sq=Frank%20Rich&amp;st=cse\" target=\"_blank\">Frank Rich.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\">+<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><em><strong>Time to start over<\/strong><\/em><em>. Obama&#8217;s second year<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\">.<\/span><\/span> <\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/magazine\/content\/10_05\/b4165022370723.htm\" target=\"_blank\">BusinessWeek.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+<strong><em> Stop! The backlash against big government<\/em><\/strong>. Cover story on the latest <\/span><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/opinion\/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15330481\" target=\"_blank\">Economist.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">All this may change.<span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">If Washington changes. If Larry Summers (who doesn&#8217;t believe small business creates jobs) is fired. If Bernanke is let go. \u00a0If we see some real change. But don&#8217;t count on it.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #8f6a20;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton4.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-126\" title=\"HarryNewton\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton4.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"95\" height=\"162\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Harry Newton, who remains supremely optimistic long-term, but has some serious doubts about the short-term. \u00a0I&#8217;ll be funnier tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Add your thoughts in a comment below, please. Am I wrong? And why?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The reasons? 1. We&#8217;ve had huge run from the March lows. Stocks are overvalued. I quoted the Economist on this \u00a0a few days ago. 2. The extent of the horrendous commercial lending problem at our nation&#8217;s banks (especially the big ones) is becoming evident. 3. Stock market indicators showing the market has definitely turned down. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}