{"id":45269,"date":"2018-12-21T13:41:28","date_gmt":"2018-12-21T18:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=45269"},"modified":"2018-12-21T14:31:23","modified_gmt":"2018-12-21T19:31:23","slug":"pleasure-or-profit-investor-or-trader-uncertainty-or-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=45269","title":{"rendered":"Pleasure or profit? Investor or trader? Uncertainty or uncertainty?"},"content":{"rendered":"

There’s one overwhelming message in the markets — depressing uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Will we close the government? Will earnings fall? Will growth slow? Will we have a recession in 2019? Will our Trade Wars with China ever get solved? Will FANG stocks ever stop falling? Will we ever get a little irrational exuberance? Is hedgie Gundlach right? As he said a few days ago….<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs wrote<\/p>\n

The ongoing rout seems to reflect a self-reinforcing interplay between fundamental worries-including slowing global growth, less accommodative policy and rising geopolitical and domestic tensions-and a collapse of liquidity that is magnifying the downward pressure on asset prices. According to our colleagues in Global Investment Research, the liquidity of S&P 500 futures is 70% lower than it was at this time last year while the same measure for single stocks is 42% lower.<\/strong> Moreover, corporations are currently in their “blackout window” prior to releasing quarterly earnings next month, removing another source of important market sponsorship.<\/p>\n

That’s pretty bleak. My bolding.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will the Fed ever stop raising rates?<\/p>\n

Right now, the Fed is key to stock prices.<\/p>\n

Here’s a chart showing how the Fed’s higher interest rates quickly lead to recessions.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

You can play with the chart here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

My smart investor friend called this morning and said he wanted to buy some high-yielding stocks.<\/p>\n

I said beware of trying to catch falling knives.<\/p>\n

Sell stocks which have:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Fallen more than 15%, and\/or<\/li>\n
  2. Whose prospects have changed for the worse, and worse — what I call cockroach stocks. My classic is Facebook. Yuch.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Perhaps it’s time to resurrect our old standby?<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

    A little in the mattress is better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish — which is what the stockmarket is delivering today.<\/p>\n

    Play tennis. Bike riding. Binge watch Netflix.<\/p>\n

    Investor or Trader?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Some readers ask me: Are you an investor or a trader?<\/p>\n

    To clear things up: I’m an investor. With one proviso:<\/p>\n

    When some of my chosen stocks no longer work or go to irrational heights, I’ll sell them.<\/p>\n

    You’ll find my “logic” in this column. I write it to clear my thoughts. I hope you find them useful.<\/p>\n

    Talk to your local restaurants about not using plastic straws.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Here’s why:<\/p>\n