{"id":45584,"date":"2019-01-22T10:16:14","date_gmt":"2019-01-22T15:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=45584"},"modified":"2019-01-22T10:16:14","modified_gmt":"2019-01-22T15:16:14","slug":"the-two-handed-economist-and-why-twilio-seems-to-make-huge-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=45584","title":{"rendered":"The two-handed economist. And why Twilio seems to make huge sense."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">On the one hand. On the other.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Truman once said he wanted to meet a one-armed economist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#8217;s your choice: Lots of learned successful folks are saying things will be bad &#8212; what with Brexit, trade wars, slowing China, and no more tax cut boost.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Seth Klarman says\u00a0&#8220;It can&#8217;t be business as usual amid constant protests, riots, shutdowns and escalating social tensions.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He says mounting debt in developed countries and the U.S.\u00a0 could lead to a financial panic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Other more sanguine observers see a slowing world economy, but not a recession.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m with the more sanguine. Today markets are easing back. Pick up some favorite stocks. They&#8217;re on sale.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In James Dines&#8217; book<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/masspsychology.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45603\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/masspsychology.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"272\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/masspsychology.jpg 272w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/masspsychology-200x300.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 272px) 100vw, 272px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Dines argues there are three factors that determine the price of a stock:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Fundamentals<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Technicals, and<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Mass Psychology.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;d argue in favor of adding one extra:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Growth<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Which brings me to these earnings:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Earnings.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45604\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Earnings.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"314\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Earnings.jpg 314w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Earnings-300x283.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 314px) 100vw, 314px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">How do you price a company selling more each year and losing more each year?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s how. This is the past year. Up nearly five times!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TWLOOneYear.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45605\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TWLOOneYear.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TWLOOneYear.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TWLOOneYear-300x138.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Look at the financials:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TwilioFinancials.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45607\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TwilioFinancials.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"732\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TwilioFinancials.jpg 732w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/TwilioFinancials-300x145.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 732px) 100vw, 732px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The company is only losing money because of its massive R&amp;D.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Is the opportunity Twilio faces worth the R&amp;D?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I spent most of the weekend trying to answer that question and\u00a0 concluded <strong>Yes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today I&#8217;ll buy some Twilio.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Essentially what Twilio does is to help companies &#8220;talk&#8221; to their customers better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Twilio tailors voice, text (SMS), video, and email to make &#8220;the customer experience&#8221; more appealing. Their customers read like a Who&#8217;s Who of technology leaders, including Vmware, Intuit, Lyft, Uber, Yelp, eHarmony, Dell, Box, and Trulia. For more of Twilio&#8217;s 40,000 customers, go<strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/customers.twilio.com\/?_ga=2.156436798.440743039.1548161130-2131482190.1547994125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s really hard to explain the breadth of Twilio&#8217;s products (present and future). I keep thinking of Uber &#8212; and all the ways we, as customers, communicate with the company &#8212; from the app to the phone calls with the driver picking us up.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Twilio&#8217;s pricing model is tiny amounts per transaction &#8212; akin to what Amazon does with its AWS cloud service. This pricing encourages the potential customer to experiment and to grow. It&#8217;s neat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I bet if you go to Twilio&#8217;s web site and float around for an hour or so you&#8217;ll find a simple application for one of your businesses. I found one &#8212; mass texts. Apparently texts get read more and much quicker than emails.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Whatever happened to bitcoin?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Its highest price was $19,783.06, reached on December 17,2017. On Friday it was $3,708.18. That&#8217;s an 81% drop!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Bitcoinprice.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45593\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Bitcoinprice.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"464\" height=\"252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Bitcoinprice.jpg 464w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Bitcoinprice-300x163.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 464px) 100vw, 464px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Scams and scams and more scams<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Claim your prize before it expires.&#8221; &#8220;We have a reward for you.&#8221; &#8220;Your survey package is here.&#8221; &#8220;Claim your package before it expires.&#8221; &#8220;Your package from Walmart is waiting.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s endless &#8212; from Amazon, Walmart, Sam&#8217;s Club, and a million others. They&#8217;re all scams.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Reply to any and your life will be miserable. How do I know they&#8217;re illegit? Look at the email address from one for Sam&#8217;s Club. Does this look legit?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SAMS.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45595\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/SAMS.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"224\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>19 Best Places to Go in 2019<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From CondeNast Traveler &#8212; the list includes places in Belize, Bhutan, Australia, and\u00a0Chengdu, China, and the Northwest Passage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/bhutan.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45586\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/bhutan.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"334\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/bhutan.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/bhutan-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/NorthwestPassage.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45587\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/NorthwestPassage.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"334\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/NorthwestPassage.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/NorthwestPassage-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Doesn&#8217;t matter if you can&#8217;t go. The pictures are neat. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cntraveler.com\/gallery\/19-best-places-to-go-in-2019?mbid=nl_012019_daily&amp;CNDID=38760355&amp;utm_source=nl&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_brand=cnt&amp;utm_mailing=tvl_traveler_news_newdb_ACTIVE_2019_0120%20(1)&amp;bxid=MTM4MzM0MzUzODgxS0&amp;hasha=8ee9050bc59774c3f5b5b9580f85b269&amp;hashb=e63f68c7f08ab50ab9fadf2bc9b385523fc33ca0&amp;spMailingID=14982707&amp;spUserID=MTM4MzM0MzUzODgxS0&amp;spJobID=1561515368&amp;spReportId=MTU2MTUxNTM2OAS2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>How to end the government shutdown<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From Saturday Night Live<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0D-PRJuUDoc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>How to live forever, by people who didn&#8217;t.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You&#8217;ll die laughing. No politics. Just funny.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 690px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-45584-1\" width=\"690\" height=\"399\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/BillMaheronDietWizardry.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/BillMaheronDietWizardry.mp4\">https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/BillMaheronDietWizardry.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton, who gets great pleasure from the family&#8217;s iPhone PhotoStream, which brings great images like this one of grandson Peter on a swing.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/PeterLaughing.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-45612\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/PeterLaughing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"467\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/PeterLaughing.png 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/PeterLaughing-225x300.png 225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n<\/script>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the one hand. On the other. Harry Truman once said he wanted to meet a one-armed economist. That&#8217;s your choice: Lots of learned successful folks are saying things will be bad &#8212; what with Brexit, trade wars, slowing China, and no more tax cut boost. Seth Klarman says\u00a0&#8220;It can&#8217;t be business as usual amid [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45584"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45615,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45584\/revisions\/45615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}