{"id":49059,"date":"2020-01-06T11:36:08","date_gmt":"2020-01-06T16:36:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=49059"},"modified":"2020-01-06T11:36:08","modified_gmt":"2020-01-06T16:36:08","slug":"the-black-swan-event-that-wasnt-upgrading-to-win-10-how-to-prepare-the-perfect-meal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=49059","title":{"rendered":"The Black Swan event that wasn’t. Upgrading to Win 10. How to prepare the perfect meal."},"content":{"rendered":"

The markets are shrugging off our weekend’s Black Swan event — namely killing General\u00a0Soleimani.<\/p>\n

Investopedia defined it:<\/p>\n

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.<\/p>\n

Background (culled from various sources):<\/p>\n

Since the late nineteen-nineties, the General has tried to remake the Middle East to Iran’s advantage, directing his proxies to kill or dispatch anyone who impeded his vision of an Iranian-dominated sphere of influence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. He was remarkably successful, legendary even. He was involved in sponsoring terrorist attacks, propping up despots like Bashar al-Assad in Syria, helping to assassinate at least one foreign leader — the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri –and killing hundreds of American soldiers along the way. In the latter years of the American war in Iraq, Suleimani’s militias deployed a particularly bloody weapon against U.S. soldiers –the “explosively formed penetrator,” or E.F.P.– which tore through the armor of U.S. military vehicles and wreaked havoc on soldiers and marines.<\/p>\n

Over the weekend Thomas Friedman of the New York Times wrote a devastating piece:<\/p>\n

Trump Kills Iran’s Most Overrated Warrior<\/strong>
\nSuleimani pushed his country to build an empire, but drove it into the ground instead.<\/p>\n

One day they may name a street after President Trump in Tehran. Why? Because Trump just ordered the assassination of possibly the dumbest man in Iran and the most overrated strategist in the Middle East: Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.<\/p>\n

Think of the miscalculations this guy made. In 2015, the United States and the major European powers agreed to lift virtually all their sanctions on Iran, many dating back to 1979, in return for Iran halting its nuclear weapons program for a mere 15 years, but still maintaining the right to have a peaceful nuclear program. It was a great deal for Iran. Its economy grew by over 12 percent the next year. And what did Suleimani do with that windfall?<\/p>\n

He and Iran’s supreme leader launched an aggressive regional imperial project that made Iran and its proxies the de facto controlling power in Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sana. This freaked out U.S. allies in the Sunni Arab world and Israel – and they pressed the Trump administration to respond. Trump himself was eager to tear up any treaty forged by President Obama, so he exited the nuclear deal and imposed oil sanctions on Iran that have now shrunk the Iranian economy by almost 10 percent and sent unemployment over 16 percent.<\/p>\n

All that for the pleasure of saying that Tehran can call the shots in Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sana. What exactly was second prize?<\/p>\n

With the Tehran regime severely deprived of funds, the ayatollahs had to raise gasoline prices at home, triggering massive domestic protests. That required a harsh crackdown by Iran’s clerics against their own people that left thousands jailed and killed, further weakening the legitimacy of the regime.<\/p>\n

Then Mr. “Military Genius” Suleimani decided that, having propped up the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and helping to kill 500,000 Syrians in the process, he would overreach again and try to put direct pressure on Israel. He would do this by trying to transfer precision-guided rockets from Iran to Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria.<\/p>\n

Alas, Suleimani discovered that fighting Israel – specifically, its combined air force, special forces, intelligence and cyber – is not like fighting the Nusra front or the Islamic State. The Israelis hit back hard, sending a whole bunch of Iranians home from Syria in caskets and hammering their proxies as far away as Western Iraq.<\/p>\n

You can read the rest of Friedman’s piece here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

I had hoped that the weekend’s black swan event would let me buy more of favorite stocks cheap. But it was not to be.<\/p>\n

Maybe when Iran responds with something stupid, I’ll have another shot.<\/p>\n

For now, I’m not unhappy that I don’t own gold or energy. Both have had a nice recent run.<\/p>\n

Here’s the last year of gold:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That’s nice.<\/p>\n

But look at gold over the past ten years. It’s awful. I don’t buy gold as an insurance.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If you want “insurance,” put your money into treasurys or CDs. You’d have done much better — unless you bought your gold in the Spring of 2019 — in which case you’d be a genius. Please tell me your latest geniosity.<\/p>\n

My philosophy is simple: I can only understand a limited number of\u00a0 things. I stay out of those things I don’t understand — like gold, cannabis, and others I’ve mentioned.<\/p>\n

My friends say, “Look at all the money I’m making on xyz,”<\/p>\n

I say, “Great. Take a little off the table. Go on vacation to someplace nice, like the Galapagos.<\/p>\n

I have a one-year CD that’s about to expire.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Before I put the money into a CD, my money was sitting in a checking account at my bank earning virtually nothing. (Like billions of other free money the American public has donated to our banks.)<\/p>\n

When the CD expires, in March I will earn over $12,850 interest. You typically get the interest the day your CD expires.<\/p>\n

I can’t imagine what got into my tiny brain to leave money in a checking account all these years earning nothing.<\/p>\n

That gives dumbness<\/p>\n

Win 7 “support” expires in 8 days<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Lots of reader emails. Most say they’ve already “upgraded” to Win 10 and it worked out.<\/p>\n

If you are freaked, here are my “recommendations.”<\/p>\n

+ Don’t “upgrade” your present working Win 7 machine. Use this “opportunity” to buy a new, faster machine:<\/p>\n

+ Go visit an Apple store. Maybe you’ll like what they have?\u00a0 All my friends who’ve switched are happy and wouldn’t go back.<\/p>\n

+ The best Win 10 laptop is a Lenovo X1 Carbon. You can’t see them in stores. But you can return the machine for full refund within 30 days.\u00a0 I have bought a new X1 Carbon running Win 10. I am slowly working on moving over to it, while keeping my Win 7 machine<\/p>\n

+ Virtually all your beloved software that works on Win 7 will work on Win 10. For those few who don’t you can’t google around for replacements.<\/p>\n

+ You can still upgrade to Win 10 from Win 7 for free. Watch this useful video:<\/p>\n