{"id":49113,"date":"2020-01-09T10:59:31","date_gmt":"2020-01-09T15:59:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=49113"},"modified":"2020-01-09T17:49:54","modified_gmt":"2020-01-09T22:49:54","slug":"its-gloom-and-doom-time-again-go-figure-meanwhile-im-pinching-myself-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=49113","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s gloom and doom time again. Go figure. Meanwhile, I&#8217;m pinching myself, again."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">What&#8217;s the use of economists if they forecast only booms?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Much better to forecast doom and gloom. At least someone will listen?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today the New York Times ran a piece in its Business Section:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>The Economy Is Expanding. Why Are Economists So Glum?<\/strong><br \/>\nAt an annual gathering of the profession, researchers presented evidence and talks that amounted to warnings on the state of the record-long expansion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">SAN DIEGO &#8211; The mood among economic forecasters gathered for their annual meeting last weekend was dark. They warned one another about President Trump&#8217;s trade war, about government budget deficits and, repeatedly, about the inability of central banks to fully combat another recession should one sweep the globe anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">Among the thousands of economists gathered for the profession&#8217;s annual meeting, there was little celebration of Mr. Trump&#8217;s economic policies, even though unemployment is at a 50-year low, wages are rising and the economy is experiencing its longest expansion on record.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">Underlying their sense of foreboding was a widespread sentiment that the current expansion is built on a potentially shaky combination of high deficits and low interest rates &#8211; and when it ends, as it is bound to do eventually, it could do so painfully.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">Those concerns were echoed on Wednesday by economists at the World Bank, who called the worldwide expansion &#8220;fragile&#8221; in their latest &#8220;Global Economic Prospects&#8221; report. The report forecasts a slight uptick in growth in 2020 after a sluggish year bogged down by trade tensions and weak investment. But it said &#8220;downside risks predominate,&#8221; including the potential escalation of trade fights, sharp slowdowns in the United States and other wealthy countries and financial disruptions in emerging markets like China and India.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can read the rest of the nonsense <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/01\/08\/business\/economy-recession-economists.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Apple climbs again<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s Apple in the last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49120\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/AppleONeYear.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"695\" height=\"280\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There&#8217;s nothing in their earnings or sales to justify this, except that their P\/E is still only 25.5 &#8212; even today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My morning&#8217;s thoughts:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Maybe they\u2019ll do something to justify the higher price? Introduce a 5G phone? Get rid of the annoying cutout at the top of the screen?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Introduce a MacBook Pro with a decent keyboard?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Suffice, there remains a shortage of hyped technology stocks &#8212; though we have a pretty good list &#8212; check out the right hand column now updated. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Boeing is up today<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cees Penning, a reader, wrote me this morning:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Boeing should make a survey to see how many people are not willing to fly on<br \/>\na 737 Max. I would not.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Neither would my wife. Me neither.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In fact, until they figure out what happened to this week&#8217;s crash of a 737 in Tehran, I&#8217;m leery about flying any Boeing 737.<\/p>\n<p>Late afternoon update: the Iranians shot the 737 down by mistake. The plane had just taken off from the main Tehran airport and was climbing to its cruising altitude.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>You deserve this<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Whether your hearing is shot or still good, you deserve this for watching TV. The quality is better than your TV, with or without your over-priced soundbar. You&#8217;ll hear the dialog. You&#8217;ll hear it in stereo. Netflix and others come alive. Best of all, your partner can sleep while you watch a chick-flick or escapist nonsense.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49118\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/SennheiserRS-120.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"443\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Over the years I&#8217;ve tested virtually every wireless TV headphone, many of which are pricier than these. These are the only ones that have held up long-term. Only $78.90. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Sennheiser-RS120-Wireless-Headphones-Charging\/dp\/B0001FTVEK\/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=sennheiser+rs-120&amp;qid=1578578613&amp;sr=8-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Buy also a box of AAA batteries. It chews up batteries, if you leave them on, which you will.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Dead kangaroos (and one dead sheep)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49115\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/DeadKanagaroos.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"313\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m researching the best places for us to send money to Australia for fire relief. Susan found a few and sent money, but said it was difficult. We&#8217;ll see if we can find something easier today. Nicole Kidman gave $500,000.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Don&#8217;t forget<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Don&#8217;t forget to turn on your phone after you shut it off at the theater or the movie house.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Don&#8217;t forget to ignore the traffic lights and check what&#8217;s coming &#8212; including bicycles that (in Manhattan) don&#8217;t obey lights or laws, or pedestrians wearing AirPods and texting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Don&#8217;t forget to hold the hand railing as you go\u00a0<strong>down<\/strong> stairs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Don&#8217;t forget to stop smoking. Some people still do. Why, I don&#8217;t know. Yesterday I asked a 26-year old on the street if he knew smoking was bad for him. He did. I asked why he was still smoking? He said he didn&#8217;t know. Ditto for vaping.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Your new startup<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Will take longer to get started<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Will be more expensive to start<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Will run out of money<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">At which point you&#8217;ll do something stupid &#8212; like scramble around desperately looking for money. our scramble will force you to take a really stupid deal &#8212; like mortgaging your entire company to someone for a miserable $1 million. And if you don&#8217;t pay the money back in 12 months, they&#8217;ll take your entire company.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bingo, you&#8217;ll have lost five years of your work.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You think I&#8217;m kidding? I got hit up for $1 million yesterday by a friend who&#8217;s just about to lose his precious new company. He lost a previous one the exact same way!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If I were younger, I&#8217;ll probably loan him the million and in a year&#8217;s time take it from him.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meantime, raise at least five times what you think you&#8217;ll need. Don&#8217;t worry about dilution. When you lose it all, dilution tends to be meaningless.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Don&#8217;t do stupid video &#8212; funny<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 480px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-49113-1\" width=\"480\" height=\"608\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/DontDoStupid.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/DontDoStupid.mp4\">https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/DontDoStupid.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Send me a case of tennis balls if you&#8217;ve made decent money with the past year&#8217;s portfolio and stock tips.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">See you tomorrow &#8212; Harry Newton<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s the use of economists if they forecast only booms? Much better to forecast doom and gloom. At least someone will listen? Today the New York Times ran a piece in its Business Section: The Economy Is Expanding. Why Are Economists So Glum? At an annual gathering of the profession, researchers presented evidence and talks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49113"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49113\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49133,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49113\/revisions\/49133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}