{"id":50111,"date":"2020-03-31T11:38:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T15:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=50111"},"modified":"2020-03-31T11:38:00","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T15:38:00","slug":"cash-is-not-king-making-short-term-predictions-is-impossible-its-time-to-slide-back-in-here-are-the-reasons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=50111","title":{"rendered":"Cash is not king. Making short-term predictions is impossible. It&#8217;s time to slide back in. Here are the reasons."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s down day in stockmarkets today. It&#8217;s the end of a quarter and institutions will be re-balancing. What this means is that they&#8217;ll be selling some of their bonds which did well with in the first quarter and will be buying equities. Many institutions have a stated goal &#8212; so much % in bonds and so much % in equities. Usually equities do much better, but this quarter they didn&#8217;t. Hence the need for many institutions (like mutual funds) to buy equities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>How not to invest during a pandemic<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yesterday I ran a piece by\u00a0James B. Stewart, a long-time financial writer with the New York Times.\u00a0 The article was called\u00a0 \u201c<em>How not to invest during a pandemic.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stewart&#8217;s piece contained these paragraphs:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0 This week I described my recent investing struggles to Frank Murtha, a managing partner of the consulting firm MarketPysch and an expert in behavioral finance. He said nothing I told him was unusual, even among seasoned investors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0 My reluctance to look at my portfolio was common, he said. &#8220;Watching yourself have less money is painful,&#8221; he said. &#8220;It&#8217;s not just that you&#8217;re poorer. You also feel ashamed, foolish, like you screwed up. One of the toughest things is to separate your money from your ego and identity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0 He gave me credit for gathering the courage to face reality and then to buy. &#8220;Nothing relieves anxiety more than taking action,&#8221; he said. &#8220;You can take small actions that address the emotional need to do something without putting your finances at undue risk.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0 Stocks are one of the few assets that psychologically become harder to buy as they become cheaper. &#8220;Every decision to buy is met with negative reinforcement,&#8221; Mr. Murtha said. Even he missed the great buying opportunity in March 2009. &#8220;I was too scared,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0 At least I didn&#8217;t commit what Mr. Murtha considers the most serious error, which is to sell into a steep decline. &#8220;That&#8217;s where people really get hurt,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Once you&#8217;re out, the emotional leverage works against you. Either the market drops further, which confirms your fear. Or it goes up, and you don&#8217;t want to buy after you just sold. Then it gets further and further away from you. People don&#8217;t realize how hard it is to get back in.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">All through last night night, I agonized: My cash is not king. King is being invested in equities. And despite the gloomy predictions about the upcoming 32% unemployment and &#8220;the second leg down&#8221; in the market, I should be more fully invested.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In fact, it&#8217;s insane to sell into a downdraft &#8212; no matter how bad your declining paper wealth makes you feel. (I felt really bad.) You&#8217;ll always sell at the bottom. Trust me. That&#8217;s Murphy&#8217;s Law.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Own good stocks. Dump bad ones &#8212; like retailers, airlines, energy companies and cruise lines (though fortunately I have never owned them.) Hold the good ones.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I will buy more stay-at-home stocks, like Zoom Video, Teladoc, DocuSign, Slack (WORK),\u00a0 And the online shoppers Amazon and\u00a0 Chewy. And the online entertainers &#8212; ROKU and Netflix.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m liking Shopify. My super-mart nephew, Dan Whitten, owns three pubs in Australia. He had to close them because of the virus. But he used Shopify to build an online drive-in\/ delivery bottle\u00a0 shop. It took him only a day last weekend to build his impressive site. Click <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.robinhoodhotel.com.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>He&#8217;s using the sales to keep as many of his people employed as he can. He&#8217;s really impressed with Shopify (SHOP). Remember Dan&#8217;s in Sydney, Australia. He can&#8217;t deliver to the U.S. His prices are in Australian dollars, which are worth much less than an American dollar. I don&#8217;t know where Shopify is &#8212; somewhere out there in the cloud.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m also nibbling at the virus pharmas, like Johnson and Johnson, Eli Lilly, and Gilead and maybe the very volatile Regeneron.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Praying on Stay-at-Homers<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Thieves are preying on stay-at-homers, like you and me.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The standard weapon is phishing. They send you an email that looks legit. They owe you money. Call them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cal them. Give them personal financial information&#8230; And bingo, you&#8217;re screwed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The best way of checking the legitimacy of an email is to look at the sending email address. If it looks weird, it is.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Be wary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Do things that make home working less stressful.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m playing tennis every day. I also make &#8220;big&#8221; accomplishments &#8212; like changing light-bulbs and batteries, and writing this blog (which I enjoy).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s a piece<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><em>10 Daily Habits That Are Drastically Improving My Life<\/em><br \/>\nThese habits will help you be, think and do better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The author instances stretching, intermittent fasting to meditation. You may find some ideas in his list.\u00a0Click <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/publishous\/10-daily-habits-that-are-drastically-improving-my-life-3ac93c242963\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>You must watch this video<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I mentioned it yesterday. You may have missed it. It arms you with weaponry against the virus. In turn, that makes you feel less freaked:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-50084\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cornell-750x253.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cornell-750x253.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cornell-768x259.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cornell-1024x345.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cornell.jpg 1177w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For the video, click\u00a0<span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/vimeo.com\/399733860?outro=1&amp;ref=fb-share&amp;fbclid=IwAR05IXWtszrGoY-MS2TUnX0NXmSuDnWJs8CZRmzHC1sGMQMROmnYV97-W8k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 Remember to hit the\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-50090\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/forward-button-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"50\" height=\"35\" \/>. It\u2019s on the bottom left.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Fauci Warns Trump That If Everyone in U.S. Dies It Could Affect His TV Ratings<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-50114\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/facuiandtrump.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"304\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)-In a conversation over the weekend that reportedly left the President &#8220;shaken,&#8221; Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Donald Trump that if everyone in the United States dies, it would adversely affect his television ratings.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Although Fauci was quick to add that the everyone-dying scenario was purely hypothetical, he stressed that, from a medical perspective, alive people were more likely than dead ones to watch television.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Finally, Yankee ingenuity.\u00a0 A better toilet paper<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dQM__8Jn978?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the link on the image doesn&#8217;t work, click <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/dQM__8Jn978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Watch it to the end. It&#8217;s very funny.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>It should be spelled Tofu.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-50123\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Tofu.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"488\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have been eating Tofu.\u00a0 It tastes better than its reputation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lands End makes great pajamas with pockets. They&#8217;re on sale. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.landsend.com\/products\/mens-broadcloth-pajama-pants\/id_288555?attributes=20359,43307,43327,44255,44967\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">See you tomorrow. &#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s down day in stockmarkets today. It&#8217;s the end of a quarter and institutions will be re-balancing. What this means is that they&#8217;ll be selling some of their bonds which did well with in the first quarter and will be buying equities. Many institutions have a stated goal &#8212; so much % in bonds and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50111"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50129,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50111\/revisions\/50129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}