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<\/p>\nShort-term short covering. Hard to believe it’s a V-shaped recovery in stocks when 25% of the U.S. economy is shut down; there is so much devastation in key industries — travel, real estate, retail, restaurants, small business\u00a0 — and vast swaths of manufacturing are still closed.<\/p>\n
The “conventional wisdom” is that the stock market tells us what will happen nine months from now; With huge gains of today and yesterday, it’s perhaps signaling in nine months we’ll have a cure and a vaccine, we’ll all be back at work and things will be humming along as if nothing happened. Just nine months from now!<\/p>\n
Here’s this year showing Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P, including this morning. It shows the bounce.<\/p>\n
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No one can predict this. And I’ve been super dumb trying.<\/p>\n
Thinking it was dropping through the floor, I bought some triple short ETFs — SPXS and SPXU. I was wrong. I got creamed. So far.<\/p>\n
There’s another theory, according to a tweet from Mark Minervini this morning,<\/p>\n
\u00a0 “It’s easy to get lured into the market on big up days and place undisciplined FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) trades. But keep in mind the biggest rally days occur during bear markets. Sustained bull markets have very few +3% up days. Bear markets are dominated by them, but at the expense of volatility.”<\/p>\n
I return to the words I published last week: I ran a piece by\u00a0James B. Stewart, a long-time financial writer with the New York Times.\u00a0 The article was called\u00a0 \u201cHow not to invest during a pandemic.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n Stewart\u2019s piece contained these key paragraphs:<\/p>\n \u00a0 This week I described my recent investing struggles to Frank Murtha, a managing partner of the consulting firm MarketPysch and an expert in behavioral finance. He said nothing I told him was unusual, even among seasoned investors.<\/p>\n \u00a0 My reluctance to look at my portfolio was common, he said. \u201cWatching yourself have less money is painful,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not just that you\u2019re poorer. You also feel ashamed, foolish, like you screwed up. One of the toughest things is to separate your money from your ego and identity.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0 He gave me credit for gathering the courage to face reality and then to buy. \u201cNothing relieves anxiety more than taking action,\u201d he said. \u201cYou can take small actions that address the emotional need to do something without putting your finances at undue risk.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0 \u00a0Stocks are one of the few assets that psychologically become harder to buy as they become cheaper. \u201cEvery decision to buy is met with negative reinforcement,\u201d Mr. Murtha said. Even he missed the great buying opportunity in March 2009. \u201cI was too scared,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u00a0 At least I didn\u2019t commit what Mr. Murtha considers the most serious error, which is to sell into a steep decline. \u201cThat\u2019s where people really get hurt,\u201d he said. \u201cOnce you\u2019re out, the emotional leverage works against you. Either the market drops further, which confirms your fear. Or it goes up, and you don\u2019t want to buy after you just sold. Then it gets further and further away from you. People don\u2019t realize how hard it is to get back in.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0I have agonized: My cash is not king. King is being invested in equities. And despite the gloomy predictions about the upcoming 32% unemployment and \u201cthe second leg down\u201d in the market, I should be more invested.<\/p>\n In fact, it\u2019s insane to sell into a downdraft \u2014 no matter how bad your declining paper wealth makes you feel. (I felt really bad.) You\u2019ll always sell at the bottom. Trust me. That\u2019s Murphy\u2019s Law.<\/p>\n Own good stocks. Dump bad ones \u2014 like retailers, airlines, energy companies and cruise lines (though fortunately I have never owned airlines, energy companies or cruise lines). Hold the good ones.<\/p>\n I will buy more stay-at-home stocks, like Zoom Video, Teladoc, DocuSign, Slack (WORK),\u00a0 the online shoppers Amazon and\u00a0 Chewy. And the online entertainers \u2014 ROKU and Netflix.<\/p>\n And I’ll keep away from obvious disasters — like energy, airlines, cruise lines, etc.<\/p>\n Maybe that’s a good long-term strategy?<\/p>\n What should our goals be today?\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n First, not to catch it, and<\/p>\n Second, to have enough cash money to last for two years.<\/p>\n Not catching it is key — for two reasons. You have no idea how it will affect you — you may shrug it off or you may die. Or you may end up on a ventilator. They’re truly awful. To read more on the agonies of ventilators, click\u00a0here.<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Check out Google’s images on intubation. They paralyze you to put you on a ventilator. Read the story of New Jersey’s first Covid patient (he survived). It’s not a pleasant story. Click\u00a0here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n You don’t want to catch this thing. Have you seen the photos of what it does to your lungs and how difficult t is to then to breath — hence the ventilator.<\/p>\n You really\u00a0 need to be manic about washing, face masks, ten foot of separation and getting plenty of exercise and rest.<\/p>\n Fear not. It’s all been foretold.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n The New York Time wrote a fascinating piece:<\/p>\n \u00a0 The Apocalypse as an `Unveiling’: What Religion Teaches Us About the End Times The article begins:<\/p>\n \u00a0 For people of many faiths, and even none at all, it can feel lately like the end of the world is near. Not only is there a plague, but hundreds of billions of\u00a0locusts are swarming East Africa<\/a>.\u00a0Wildfires have ravaged Australia<\/a>, killing an untold number of animals.\u00a0A recent earthquake in Utah<\/a>\u00a0even shook the Salt Lake Temple to the top of its iconic spire, causing the golden trumpet to fall from the angel Moroni\u2019s right hand.<\/p>\n \u00a0 But the story of apocalypse is an old one, one of the oldest humans tell. In ancient religious traditions beyond Christianity \u2014 including Judaism, Islam and Buddhism \u2014 it is a common narrative that arises in moments of social and political crisis, as people try to process unprecedented or shocking events.<\/p>\n The article continues:<\/p>\n \u00a0 About 44 percent of likely voters in the United States see the coronavirus pandemic and economic meltdown as either a wake-up call to faith, a sign of God\u2019s coming judgment or both, according to a poll commissioned by the Joshua Fund, an evangelical group run by Joel C. Rosenberg, who writes about the end of the world, and conducted last week by McLaughlin & Associates, pollsters for President Trump and other Republicans.<\/p>\n \u00a0 David Jeremiah, a pastor who has been one of President Trump\u2019s informal evangelical advisers, asked in a sermon recently if the coronavirus was biblical prophecy, and called the pandemic \u201cthe most apocalyptic thing that has ever happened to us.\u201d …<\/p>\n \u00a0 Among Christians, one of the most well-known apocalyptic narratives is the Book of Revelation in the New Testament, which tells the story of the defeat of an evil beast, a final divine judgment and the coming of a New Jerusalem.<\/p>\n \u00a0 While many biblical scholars read the book as a story about the destruction of corrupt political systems, many evangelical Christians believe it describes the rapture, Jesus\u2019 return to save believers from a period of tribulation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u00a0 Joshua Johnson, 46, in Keller, Texas, spends time reading the story and interpreting its symbols, written nearly 2,000 years ago, in modern terms. He looks for the rise of what the story calls the \u201cmark of the beast,\u201d a demonic mark all people will be forced to bear.<\/p>\n He wonders if Jesus will return by 2028, 10 years after Mr. Trump\u00a0moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem<\/a>, which he saw as a prophetic sign. \u201cI tell my children, I think we are that generation,\u201d said Mr. Johnson, who attends Gateway Church, one of the country\u2019s most prominent evangelical churches.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>\u00a0 For people of many faiths, and even none at all, it can feel lately like the end of the world is near.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/apocalpyse2-750x381.jpg\")
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