{"id":51165,"date":"2020-07-13T18:30:27","date_gmt":"2020-07-13T22:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51165"},"modified":"2020-07-13T18:30:27","modified_gmt":"2020-07-13T22:30:27","slug":"a-down-day-lessons-on-diversification-and-sundry-gotchas-im-not-panicking-neither-should-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51165","title":{"rendered":"A down day. Lessons on diversification and sundry “gotchas.” I’m not panicking. Neither should you"},"content":{"rendered":"

I woke up this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Wow! I’m a lucky fellow.. oops, great stock picker.<\/p>\n

Then Apple did this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It lost only half a percent on the day, which was actually good because Nasdaq lost 2.13%, by doing this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

My dearest friend, Gerry<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

emails\u00a0 me “I\u2019m smelling 1999 in tech stocks\u2026”<\/p>\n

Why?<\/p>\n

Today, Monday, Nasdaq fell 2.13%<\/p>\n

I replied:<\/p>\n

Friend,<\/p>\n

Don’t smell anything. You can’t predict. No one can.<\/p>\n

It’s just as likely to go up tomorrow as it is to go down.<\/p>\n

Every time we’ve “predicted” and panicked we lost.<\/p>\n

I speak from expensive experience.<\/p>\n

This time I’m doing nothing.<\/p>\n

If it goes down further, I’ll selectively buy.<\/p>\n

Curiously a handful of my stocks actually went up today:<\/p>\n

MRNA, UNH, ZTS, TSM, JNJ, GILD, CHWY and PG. TSM was the only tech stock that went up.<\/p>\n

First half’s results<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

At the end of each quarter The New York Times runs a piece on mutual fund returns. Here are the returns, courtesy Morningstar:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The second quarter covered April, May and June — pretty heavy months for the virus.<\/p>\n

The good news is that my emphasis on being heavily in tech stocks worked.<\/p>\n

The second time it’s much easier<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

At home in lockdown, things break. Like toilets. Our Toto slow-close toilet lid is now fast-close. The BIG Bang. It needs a new seat. Fine.<\/p>\n

I buy one. It came with this mounting “hardware.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I smelled a rat when I couldn’t find a hole on the bottom side of the toilet.<\/p>\n

An hour later, Toto’s customer support told me I needed this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It was available for $7 (plus, plus, plus) from Supply.com. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

This is what I call a “gotcha.” Which leads me to weekend conversations:<\/p>\n

Why all of us have given up “diversifying,” most particularly – investing in startups in industries we know absolutely nothing about — except what the PowerPoint presentation tells us. Which is pretty well nothing.<\/p>\n

The startup loves us — until they get our money. Then, a year or two later, we hear why things went wrong — called gotchas. My dearest friend, who knows about real estate, wanted me to mention one word “COAL.” No story. Just COAL. It’s a painful word — for him.<\/p>\n

Is there anyone so stupid to accept this?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This came in today’s email.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

When I need to “think,” I walk to the kitchen<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This virus is making me a big fat slob. Hence, my new slogan:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Favorite (?) cartoon<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Notice that it has Ayers Rock (now called Uluru) in the background. So it must be authentic Aussie.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Grandson Peter looking angelic<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A fleeting moment, but a great picture.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Last night under the lights<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

On Mark Johnson’s wonderful court in West Ghent , NY.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It was our 120th consecutive daily game of tennis during this quarantine.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nYou’d think by now I’d be getting better? You’d think. Mark kicks my tushy.<\/p>\n

Thought to leave you with:\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In an election year, Washington loves to give away your money.<\/p>\n

Favorite Roger Stone quote<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I am not in touch with any Russians. I don’t have a Russian girlfriend, I don’t like Russian dressing and I have\u00a0stopped drinking Russian Vodka.”<\/p>\n

So there.<\/p>\n

I suspect we’ll be quarantining well into Spring next year. I’m glad I’m playing tennis every day and glad I have high-speed Internet.<\/p>\n

No more bagels with heavy cream cheese, until tomorrow.<\/p>\n

The weekend blog was good, said many of my readers. If you missed it — it was called “How to invest your money today, while stock prices are high and the virus rages on. Why tennis is like picking stocks<\/em>” — it’s here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

See you tomorrow. Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I woke up this: Wow! I’m a lucky fellow.. oops, great stock picker. Then Apple did this: It lost only half a percent on the day, which was actually good because Nasdaq lost 2.13%, by doing this: My dearest friend, Gerry emails\u00a0 me “I\u2019m smelling 1999 in tech stocks\u2026” Why? Today, Monday, Nasdaq fell 2.13% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51165"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51191,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51165\/revisions\/51191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}