{"id":51277,"date":"2020-07-27T11:05:46","date_gmt":"2020-07-27T15:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51277"},"modified":"2020-07-30T20:03:01","modified_gmt":"2020-07-31T00:03:01","slug":"reasons-to-feel-great-about-tech-stocks-despite-covid-china-portland-and-tanking-employment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51277","title":{"rendered":"Reasons to feel great about tech stocks &#8212; despite Covid, China, Portland, and tanking employment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I started with the weekend thoroughly depressed. The virus was pushing a big spike in deaths. Washington was mishandling it, as usual.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There were many weekend news stories of gruesome suffering. This virus spans symptoms from ultra-mild to ultra-horrible, and everything in between. The total unpredictability of how it affects anyone scares me sh*tless.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Suddenly unemployment is also spiking, reversing its previous downtick. And the market dropped last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The administration, desperate for re-election,\u00a0 continues to use the virus as a political tool &#8212; denying supplies to democratic towns, splaying nonsense about the virus&#8217; benignness, while taking few practical steps &#8212; other than doling out magnificent beneficence to their friends and their companies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Then there&#8217;s China. We have a signed trade pact with them. But Trump needs to enemize them. It&#8217;s part of creating enemies (like the terrorists in Portland). China sent us Kung Flu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I thought all this would really tank the stock market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But the Fed is still covering our back, buying bonds (junk and otherwise) and feeding money back into the stockmarket.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And of, course, there are the magnificent tech companies. Joel Ross of the Ross Rant newsletter writes this morning:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">There is a vast amount of cash looking for a place to be, and the tech stocks is that place. It has become a very crowded trade. However, these companies continue to perform very well, they have huge cash balances to be able to survive anything, and they do not have big hard asset investments. Altering their product is done by some people sitting in a room with computers vs auto companies that must spend millions on factory changes to alter the look of a single model. It costs Amazon tens of millions to build a million sq ft distribution warehouse, but the product flowing through it is not theirs so they do not have to be concerned if the individual product is desired by consumers or not. They are just processors. Their cloud business costs a lot to build a server farm, but then volume just ramps up at little incremental cost to Amazon. The same goes for the other tech companies. They sell brain power and outsource any manufacturing and hard asset investment. Their margins on incremental revenue are huge because the marginal cost of an added customer is nil. Their costs are essentially mostly fixed once a new app or software product is created, or once a new server is added. The business model is great. The negative is it is very hard for a small start up to gain real traction. So often they sell out to the big guys who then have even more control of the social media, advertising, and cloud markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today the market is up, especially in tech stocks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The election is 99 days away.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That time goes quick. I played my 135th consecutive game of tennis this morning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Yesterday the New York Times ran a piece:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51293\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/biden-presidency.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"727\" height=\"228\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The article quoted a July 20 BofA Global Research study. The article included these paragraphs:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">+\u00a0\u201cBiden\u2019s more aggressive stance on Covid-19 is likely to improve medium-to longer-term U.S. growth prospects potentially at the expense of shorter term prospects, if restrictive policies are pursued,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 And the\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/09\/21\/business\/trade-disputes-more-than-a-money-problem.html\">trade conflicts<\/a>, tariffs, restrictions on immigration and diminution of global institutions of the Trump era would be supplanted by a more internationalist approach \u2014 and one likely to yield substantial benefits, the report projected. In short, the authors said, a Democratic sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress would be \u201cgrowth positive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0 \u00a0 + This isn\u2019t the first time the stock market has shuddered at the thought of a Democratic presidency; in fact, I\u2019ve written\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/10\/21\/your-money\/wall-st-may-not-cheer-but-obamas-been-good-for-stocks.html\">this kind of story<\/a>\u00a0before, about Wall Street\u2019s\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/08\/21\/your-money\/the-obama-years-the-best-of-times-to-be-a-stock-investor.html\">misguided<\/a>\u00a0apprehensions\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/08\/11\/your-money\/this-ironman-market-is-still-lacking-respect.html\">about the impact<\/a>\u00a0of the Obama presidency.<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u00a0 \u00a0 But the historical record shows that since 1900 the stock market has fared far better under Democratic presidents, with a 6.7 percent annualized return for the Dow Jones industrial average compared with just 3.5 percent under Republicans. (The results are similar when measured from Election Day to Election Day.) Data provided by Bespoke Investment Group shows that these are the best annualized returns under individual presidents:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"css-1le37cb ez3869y0\">\n<li class=\"css-o74qhc eoqvrfo0\">\n<p class=\"css-nxfrgc evys1bk0\">25.5 percent under Calvin Coolidge, a Republican, in the 1920s.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"css-o74qhc eoqvrfo0\">\n<p class=\"css-nxfrgc evys1bk0\">15.9 percent under Bill Clinton, a Democrat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"css-o74qhc eoqvrfo0\">\n<p class=\"css-nxfrgc evys1bk0\">12.1 percent under Barack Obama, a Democrat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u00a0 \u00a0 \u201cWall Street generally considers Republicans to be better for market returns but historically, that\u2019s not true,\u201d said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke. \u201cDemocratic presidents have generally had better returns versus Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u00a0 \u00a0 The market under Mr. Trump has been fine \u2014 despite a calamitous drop in late February and early March \u2014 with a 9.2 percent annualized return through Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u00a0 \u00a0 But despite all the hoopla about Mr. Trump\u2019s undoubtedly pro-business policies, the stock market performance under Mr. Trump doesn\u2019t match up well against Mr. Clinton or Mr. Obama. It is entirely possible that the same would be true if Mr. Biden became president.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Read the entire article\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/07\/24\/business\/joe-biden-stocks-taxes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Be thankful<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Imagine you were born in 1900.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When you&#8217;re 14, World War I begins and ends when you&#8217;re 18 with 22 million dead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Soon the Spanish Flu appears, killing 50 million people. And you&#8217;re alive, 20 years old.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When you&#8217;re 29 you survive the global economic crisis with the collapse of the New York Stock Exchange, causing inflation, unemployment and famine.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When you&#8217;re 33 years the Nazis come to power.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When you&#8217;re 39, World War II begins and ends when you&#8217;re 45 years old with a 60 million dead. In the Holocaust 6 million Jews die.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ At 52, the Korean War begins. At 64, the Vietnam War begins and ends when you&#8217;re 75.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">A child born in 1985 thinks his grandparents have no idea how difficult life is.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today we have all the comforts in a new world, amid a new pandemic. But we complain because we need to wear masks. We complain because we must stay confined to our homes where we have food, electricity, water, gig Wi-Fi, Netflix, and Newton&#8217;s blog! None of that existed back in the day. But humanity survived those circumstances and never lost its joy of living.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The family is healthy, happy and learning (the kids, mostly on Zoom). I&#8217;m thankful for what we all have.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Ransomware is back again<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Open a bad email attachment. Bingo all the files on your computer are locked. You can&#8217;t get your precious data back unless you pay them &#8212; in untraceable bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you pay, the honest crooks may send you a key to get your files back. May or may not. There are keys:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Don&#8217;t open attachments from anybody without checking first with the sender. That includes Word Docx and PDFs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Keep backups of all your files. There are many ways &#8212; from flash drives to the cloud.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Have a complete clone laptop all loaded up and ready to take over the moment ransomware strikes. Not that pricey. Maybe $1,500 at the most.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0+ Load your day-to-day laptop with anti-ransomware software. PCMag recommends Zone Alarm by Check Point. Click\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pcmag.com\/picks\/the-best-ransomware-protection\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The good old days. They&#8217;ll be back.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is Michael and me on a Backroads biking trip in Slovenia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51287\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/michael-and-harry-in-Slovenia..jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"467\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I was thinner then, and a bit taller.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Oh, the places to visit again<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is Venice from the air.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-51288\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Venice-from-the-air-750x465.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Venice-from-the-air-750x465.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Venice-from-the-air-768x476.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Venice-from-the-air-1024x635.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Venice-from-the-air.jpg 1109w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Here are the two charts that freaked me out on the weekend.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They were on the front page of the New York Times:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-51295\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Daily-cases-large-high-income-countries-750x484.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"484\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Daily-cases-large-high-income-countries-750x484.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Daily-cases-large-high-income-countries-768x495.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Daily-cases-large-high-income-countries-1024x660.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Daily-cases-large-high-income-countries.jpg 1123w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From top down, the countries are<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sweden<br \/>\nSpain<br \/>\nBelgium<br \/>\nCanada<br \/>\nU.K.<br \/>\nFrance<br \/>\nNetherlands<br \/>\nJapan<br \/>\nItaly<br \/>\nSouth Korea<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The second chart compared the U.S. with Italy and Spain, neither country known for their great government:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-51296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/us-versus-spain-and-italy-750x469.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/us-versus-spain-and-italy-750x469.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/us-versus-spain-and-italy-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/us-versus-spain-and-italy-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/us-versus-spain-and-italy.jpg 1179w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can play with the New York Times&#8217; interactive charts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/07\/23\/us\/coronavirus-hotspots-countries.html?action=click&amp;module=RelatedLinks&amp;pgtype=Article\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>If I were in Portland<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If I were in Portland, I\u2019d go downtown this evening with a bullhorn and tell everyone to go home.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">All the protestors are accomplishing now is to help get Trump re-elected. Which is what none of them want.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They can\u2019t win the protests, but Trump can.\u00a0Trump is better armed. He\u2019s got an army of bullies who get off on killing \u201clow lives,\u201d \u201canarchists\u201d and \u201cterrorists.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It\u2019s really dangerous. His troops will kill and maim protestors. Trump is encouraging his troops to do just that.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The more he pushes them, the more they will act irresponsibly. He wants this. Desperately wants this.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He will win major political points. For only he can solve this mayhem.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The only solution is for the protestors to disburse and go home &#8212; NOW.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If I were there, I\u2019d go equipped with a bullet-proof vest, shatter-proof protective glasses, a gas mask, a helmet, a bullhorn and a ladder for standing on and delivering my speech. I\u2019d carry a big sign \u201c<strong>Go Home. You can\u2019t win.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I would deliver my speech again and again and again, all night.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I sent these words to Ted Wheeler, Portland&#8217;s mayor&#8217;s private email address. I included:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Dear Mr. Mayor, you can do this and save your city from the massacre that Trump is about to unleash on Portland.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In reply, I received<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><em>This is an automatic notification:\u00a0I cannot accept or respond to\u00a0any emails on this account related to City of Portland issues or business, nor can I accept scheduling requests.\u00a0Please contact my office at mayorwheeler@portlandoregon.gov or call the office at 503-823-4120. Thank you.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Mayor Ted Wheeler gives new meaning to the word feckless.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">See you tomorrow, or so. &#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I started with the weekend thoroughly depressed. The virus was pushing a big spike in deaths. Washington was mishandling it, as usual. There were many weekend news stories of gruesome suffering. This virus spans symptoms from ultra-mild to ultra-horrible, and everything in between. The total unpredictability of how it affects anyone scares me sh*tless. Suddenly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51277"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51277\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51330,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51277\/revisions\/51330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}