{"id":51650,"date":"2020-09-11T09:31:40","date_gmt":"2020-09-11T13:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51650"},"modified":"2020-09-11T15:18:55","modified_gmt":"2020-09-11T19:18:55","slug":"down-again-new-rules-from-everyone-and-their-uncle-none-of-which-make-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=51650","title":{"rendered":"Down again. New rules from everyone and their uncle. None of which make sense."},"content":{"rendered":"

Down again yesterday. Looks like the algos got wind and exacerbated the down:<\/p>\n

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Here’s the last 10 days in tech stocks. It’s been a roller coaster — typical of September, one of the worst months.<\/p>\n

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But, so far, this year our favorite tech stocks are still doing fine.<\/p>\n

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OK. What should you do? There is no answer. Your guess is as good as all the talking heads on BubbleVision.<\/p>\n

After saying hold Apple forever, Cramer’s now sold some of it. He’s 15% in cash (for what reason I don’t know.)<\/p>\n

My friend Ed, commenting on my blog of seven days ago, writes:<\/p>\n

There are four possibilities: Biden wins and Dems win the Senate, Biden wins but Reps keep Senate, or trump wins w or w\/o the Senate.\u00a0Ross is right that scenario #1 is a negative for the market.\u00a0 But since both races \u2013 white house and senate \u2013 are toss-ups the odds are only 1 in 4 of scenario #1.\u00a0 Looked at the other way, the odds are 75% that the election outcome will not affect tax rates and will not be a concern for the market.<\/p>\n

Ross is crazy if he thinks that under scenario #1 he\u2019ll be able to sell on the day after the election.\u00a0 The result will not be clear, maybe for weeks.\u00a0 If a Dem sweep ultimately becomes clear it will panic the stocks that have had the best long term performance, esp tech.\u00a0 Why? Because the capital gains tax break will go away.\u00a0 But the selling pressure will only last until Dec 31st<\/sup>.\u00a0 And a Dem sweep will be very bullish on Jan 1st as a huge relief package will get passed fast. $3 Trillion+.\u00a0 Higher corporate tax rates are a one-time adjustment (less than 10%) and aren\u2019t a big deal.\u00a0 I think a relief package will come no matter who wins what.\u00a0 But the biggest package would come w scenario #1. The point is \u2013 any sell-off after the election would be a big buying opportunity.\u00a0 I think there will be a huge rally after Jan 1st<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Complicated stuff. Ed is cerebral, but very successful, largely by holding technology stocks through thick and thin.<\/p>\n

There is\u00a0 a possibility that the Feds might deliver another stimulus. There is some talk that\u00a0McConnell wants to put the limited stimulus bill to a vote to protect vulnerable senators from his party against Democratic accusations that they had turned down any additional help for the US economy.<\/p>\n

Here are my thoughts.<\/p>\n

+ Have a little cash to snag some of your favorite stocks if they get cheap. Really cheap.<\/p>\n

+ Sell now — just before Rosh Hashanah, which is a week from today. Buy back at Yom Kippur ten days on. This probably works as well as any other old wives tale. But Wall always needs talking points. This one is popular at this time of year.<\/p>\n

+ Don’t try to predict this. Presidential elections don’t affect the market. Trump was going to tank the market when he got elected. But didn’t. It rose. Moreover, markets do better under the Democrats.<\/p>\n

+ Never worry about something you can’t control (or predict). That includes the market.<\/p>\n

+ Don’t get suckered into believing the grass is better on the other side. I did that earlier this year. The greener-grass\u00a0 fund just reported a gigantic 4.1% loss in August, bringing their\u00a0 loss year to date to an incredible 5.6%. Last fund ever I invest in. The grass is absolutely not<\/strong> greener on the other side.<\/p>\n

My present rule is: Hold onto everything, unless I’m down 10% or more on a stock that’s attracting bad ink and bad press — in which case sell it. That rule seems to work. The few stocks I’ve sold are now selling below what I sold them for. Except Tesla.<\/p>\n

Looks like it’s going up today.<\/p>\n

Here’s why Peloton is doing well<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The is granddaughter Eleanor on the family Peloton doing a scenic ride in Mount St. Helens.<\/p>\n

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