{"id":5290,"date":"2011-01-04T09:07:32","date_gmt":"2011-01-04T14:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=5290"},"modified":"2011-01-04T09:09:57","modified_gmt":"2011-01-04T14:09:57","slug":"5290","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=5290","title":{"rendered":"Trading earnings for capital preservation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">One of my erstwhile money managers earned 20% in 2010. But I bailed when he was down 10%+. Dumb me.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My most conservative manager was up a lousy 4%. A third\u00a0 money manager was up 14.68%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Their jobs are\u00a0 protect my capital. On\u00a0 the money I manage myself I was up about 9%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In contrast the Dow was up 11.02%,\u00a0 the S&amp;P 12.78% and NASDAQ up 16.91%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I would have done better with an index fund that mirrored the NASDAQ, i.e. the QQQQ.\u00a0 Surprise. Surprise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The key is to stick with it. But who knew. Look at the first half of 2010, then compare it with the second half. Who knew. Hard not to read the tea leaves and anticipate it going further down.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/NasdaqOneYear.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5300\" title=\"NasdaqOneYear\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/NasdaqOneYear.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"633\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/NasdaqOneYear.jpg 633w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/NasdaqOneYear-300x121.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 633px) 100vw, 633px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Oh, to work for the state.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In Illinois, state government workers pay nothing for health-care benefits and many can retire as early as 50 or 55 with a pension that pays 80% of the average salary of their final four working years (a reason many seek heavy overtime in the last few years).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The situation is similar in most places.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Local politicians seeking election did deals with local unions. And the result is a ripoff of local taxpayers, like you and me.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Every New Year for the past 26, Bryon Wien issues his &#8220;Ten Surprises.&#8221; This year, the ten surprises is actually 20 surprises. Maybe that&#8217;s one of the &#8220;surprises.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">His surprise number 18 is &#8220;18. A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The other 19 surprises are not surprises, but extensions of what&#8217;s going on, i.e. things are getting better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wien also believes oil will rise to $115 a barrel.\u00a0 That will put major brakes on the economy&#8217;s recovery. I suspect that the price of oil is once again being manipulated. The rising price is not demand\/supply related. There&#8217;s plenty of oil in the world. World economies are simply not recovering that fast. I&#8217;m not playing the oil game. And I suspect you don&#8217;t also.For more, on oil and commodity manipulation, read my favorite book, Griftopia by Matt Taibbi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can read all 20 of Bryon Wien&#8217;s &#8220;Surprises&#8221; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.stopafghanistan.org\/TenSurprises.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>New York thought 24 inches was bad.<\/strong><\/span> Try 20 meters in the Japanese Alps.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/JapaneseAlps.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5298\" title=\"JapaneseAlps\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/JapaneseAlps.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/JapaneseAlps.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/JapaneseAlps-225x300.jpg 225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>This week&#8217;s favorite New Yorker cartoons.<\/strong><\/span> First, the sickest:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Orhpanage.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5294\" title=\"Orhpanage\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Orhpanage.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"549\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Orhpanage.jpg 549w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Orhpanage-300x242.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Punditry.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5295\" title=\"Punditry\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Punditry.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"557\" height=\"453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Punditry.jpg 557w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Punditry-300x243.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 557px) 100vw, 557px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Copyright.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5296\" title=\"Copyright\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Copyright.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"583\" height=\"539\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Copyright.jpg 583w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/Copyright-300x277.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 583px) 100vw, 583px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who has &#8220;discovered&#8221; GORO as another way to play gold. Apparently smart money is into this gold produccer big-time. It&#8217;s called Gold Resource Corporation. More on it tomorrow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of my erstwhile money managers earned 20% in 2010. But I bailed when he was down 10%+. Dumb me. My most conservative manager was up a lousy 4%. A third\u00a0 money manager was up 14.68%. Their jobs are\u00a0 protect my capital. On\u00a0 the money I manage myself I was up about 9%. In contrast [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}