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<\/p>\nWhat makes my job difficult is that it is difficult.<\/p>\n
What I would like to know is when I should buy and when I should sell?<\/p>\n
We’ve had a big runup in share prices in the last year. Hence it’s good to pontificate. Let’s start with the biggest pontificator — the New York Times. On the weekend:<\/p>\n
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By the time the article make it to the Times’ web site, the editors reigned in their certainty of disaster and the headline became:<\/p>\n
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The article included these closing paragraphs:<\/p>\n
This inattention shifted in the months before the October 1929 crash. In May 1929, for example, The New York Herald Tribune published \u201cPrice-Earnings Ratio Ignored by Traders in Present Market.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was a sign of worry. Suddenly, many people became aware that this important measure was at record highs, indicating that prices were difficult to justify. The article helped to spread a pessimistic narrative about the stock market that began to dominate discourse.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe purchaser of securities on tips, who gives no thought or study to intrinsic values, must suffer the consequences of his own lack of reasonable care in conserving his resources,\u201d the article said.<\/p>\n
As the crash approached, newspapers reported that many people had taken excessive loans from brokers, noting that the severity of a market decline could be amplified when brokers made \u201cmargin calls,\u201d requiring repayment of those loans.<\/p>\n
As early as March 1928, an\u00a0article in The Times<\/a>\u00a0<\/em>said there was a widespread \u201cuncomfortable feeling\u201d about the \u201cunpleasant possibilities\u201d for the still roaring stock market. Such a feeling exists today, though perhaps not in as severe a form.<\/p>\n In early 1929, the Federal Reserve issued a sequence of warnings about\u00a0the risk of excessive speculation<\/a>. Yet the Standard & Poor\u2019s Composite Index rose 29 percent from Jan. 1 to Sept. 8 that year. (The increase in the S&P 500 from March 23, 2020, to Thursday, at 86 percent, is even larger.)<\/p>\n In 1929, the warnings only heightened public attention to the market. …<\/p>\n Are there similarities today? Certainly. The current widespread fascination with the rising market accompanied by recent concern about\u00a0a possible downward spiral<\/a>\u00a0and strained stock market valuations echo those of 100 years ago.<\/p>\n That said, there is no particular reason to expect a market collapse that would be as bad as the 1929 crash, and the government and the Fed have shown themselves to be far more adept in staving off prolonged recessions than their predecessors. But we shouldn\u2019t be surprised if uncomfortable feelings about the market grow to unmanageable proportions, leading eventually to a major stock market decline.<\/p>\n Am I predicting a massive slide? No. Absolutely not. Certainly not in the face of massive trillion dollar stimulus programs. I am convinced the explosion in new shares and new IPOs is putting pressure on the money available to keep buoying the general market, especially technology stocks in general and FAANG stocks in particular.<\/p>\n And today’s demand for labor? This is not the Depression with 26% of workers idle (in May 1933). Today — I kid you not — we’re making an appointment to paint our house. Our painter’s first available time?\u00a0 Spring, a year from now. 2022.<\/p>\n Robert J. Shiller, author of the piece above, is a professor of economics at Yale.<\/p>\n Harry Truman once said he’d like to meet a one-armed\u00a0economist who couldn’t say “On the one hand this, and the other hand that.”<\/p>\n If you’re worried, read this wonderful book by my favor economist (now deceased):<\/p>\n Tesla Y is it<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Michael, my son, is buying a Y. After his Friday testdrive, he\u00a0 can’t stop intoning what an incredible car the Tesla\u00a0 is. He’s now ruing he didn’t testdrive one a year ago. He would have bought the stock (and done very well).<\/p>\n Personally, I think Tesla is among the greater bargains on the stock market today.<\/p>\n How good is Tesla? For one,there’s three months waiting. Second, if you want one now, buy a used Tesla. The catch? They cost more<\/strong> than a new one.<\/p>\n While Elon is clearly a genius, some of his customers are not. Here’s Texas:<\/p>\n The two men killed in the crash said just before they left that they wanted to go for a drive and were talking about the vehicle\u2019s driverless features. One fellow was found in the passenger seat, the other in the back seat. No one was driving. Read more here.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n Why I hate mining and cannabis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n When price goes up, you mine or plant more.<\/p>\n When price goes down (as it will when there’s more supply), you close down and wait for the next cycle.<\/p>\n Dealing in undifferentiable products is a stupid business. Pot is undifferentiable, even mixed into gummy bears.<\/p>\n Simple tips<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n + Respond quickly to emails. It enhances your reputation.<\/p>\n + For God’s sake, forward your office phone to your cell phone. Have them ring simultaneously. Verizon does that for me. You should be available to your clients and customers. Really.<\/p>\n + In short, pick up your phone. At the very least, record a message saying you’ll call back “within the hour.”<\/p>\n + Scan the contents of your wallet. Write down all the 800 numbers to report your credit card losses. Don’t carry more than one credit card and one debit card. Your wallet will be stolen. It’s only a matter of when, not if.<\/p>\n + When in doubt, Google how to do it. Google is 1000% better than your gadget’s idiotic instruction manual.<\/p>\n + How to move your cursor around your iPhone. Here’s the brilliant solution:<\/p>\n — Hold down space bar until the letters disappear. Bingo, your keyboard becomes a mouse pad. Slide your thumbnail around the mouse pad. It really works.<\/p>\n . Disaster: I run out of stolen soap<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This is my last stolen hotel soap.<\/p>\n Dilemma: Buy retail or go stinky? That gives new meaning to cognitive dissonance.<\/p>\n Old people jokes<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n My readers send me these “jokes.” I pick the best ones:<\/p>\n I’m sorry. But I can’t stop laughing at the last one.<\/p>\n You don’t have to hold onto stocks that are cratering, especially ones that are losing money and exceed our 15% stop loss. You may want to put a limit buy order in on favorite stocks at 20% or 25% lower. Or ignore today (and yesterday) and go play tennis.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Teh-Great-Crash.jpg\")
\nTo buy it, click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Tesla-ONe-Year3.jpg\")
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