{"id":5498,"date":"2011-01-24T09:06:41","date_gmt":"2011-01-24T14:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=5498"},"modified":"2011-01-24T09:40:52","modified_gmt":"2011-01-24T14:40:52","slug":"i-cant-even-forecast-the-next-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=5498","title":{"rendered":"I can’t even forecast the next point."},"content":{"rendered":"

There are two types of tennis players. Those who focus on the next point. And those who focus on the score.\u00a0 I focus on the score. That’s bad. How many times have I lead 40-0, only to lose the game. Too many to count.<\/p>\n

Samuel Goldwyn (of MGM fame) was born Shmuel Gelbfisz in Warsaw, Poland. He made great movies and great aphorisms, known affectionately as Goldwynisms:<\/p>\n

“A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.”<\/p>\n

“A hospital is no place to be sick in.”<\/p>\n

“Anyone who goes to a psychiatrist ought to have his head examined.”<\/p>\n

“Gentlemen, include me out.”<\/p>\n

“I can give you a definite maybe.”<\/p>\n

“I can tell you in two words: im possible.”<\/p>\n

“If I could drop dead right now, I’d be the happiest man alive.”<\/p>\n

“Pictures are for entertainment. Messages should be delivered by Western Union.”<\/p>\n

“I don’t want yes-men around me. I want everyone to tell me the truth, even if it costs them their jobs.”<\/p>\n

“If I look confused, it’s because I’m thinking.”<\/p>\n

“You fail to overlook the crucial point.”<\/p>\n

My favorite Goldwynism is: “Never make forecasts, especially about the future.”<\/p>\n

This week\u00a0 is the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, to which I was, once again,\u00a0 not invited. Each year they publish a Global Risks Report<\/em>. This year’s identified 37 major things to lose sleep over, one more than last year. The list included obvious risks like climate change, geopolitical conflict and government debt, and a few less obvious ones, including migration and new technologies.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

But just last year, for all the talk of crisis prevention, commented the New York Times DealBook, participants at the forum missed what proved to be the big economic story of 2010 \u2014 Europe\u2019s sovereign debt crisis. While Greece\u2019s fiscal problems were already becoming clear, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou assured one session last January that the government would get its debt under control.<\/p>\n

Yup, under control!<\/p>\n

I have charts that show “No way.” Greece’s debts are way beyond working out with more debt. Unless Germany bails them out, again and again — with money it doesn’t expect to be returned.<\/p>\n

You can now buy one Euro for $1.36.<\/p>\n

The Euro looks doomed. That’s a “forecast.” The weekend’s “thought” was to buy cheap, long-term, out-of-the money\u00a0 put options against the Euro. Nassim Taleb would probably approve of this strategy. Keep funding the options “as a cost of doing business” until they become ultra-valuable and you’ve 20-times your money.<\/p>\n

A more conservative approach is simply to buy SWZ, an ETF which buys only Swiss companies. Switzerland has its own currency. It’s called the Swiss Franc.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

NAV per share is $15, higher than the market price. That’s good, and solid. So are Swiss mountains.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I like mountains.<\/p>\n

The weekend’s economist did a 14-page cover on the Rich.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

My favorite excerpt:<\/p>\n

You do not have to be a genius to build a million-dollar business, but it helps if you are intelligent and extremely hard-working. In their book \u201cThe Millionaire Next Door\u201d, Thomas Stanley and William Danko observed that a typical American millionaire is surprisingly ordinary. He has spent his life patiently saving and ploughing his money into a business he founded. He does not live in the fanciest part of town\u2014why waste money that you can invest? And his tastes are so plain that you can barely tell him apart from his neighbours. He buys $40 shoes, and his car of choice is a Ford.<\/p>\n

I prefer a Subaru. My wife hates my cheap shoes.<\/p>\n

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\n<\/strong><\/div>\n

Harry Newton who wonders how he can play four hours of spectacular tennis (singles, of course) on Saturday, killing all three opponents and then come back on Sunday and lose 6-0, 6-1, 6-0. That gives miserable a whole new meaning. Still, I’m happy to be alive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are two types of tennis players. Those who focus on the next point. And those who focus on the score.\u00a0 I focus on the score. That’s bad. How many times have I lead 40-0, only to lose the game. Too many to count. Samuel Goldwyn (of MGM fame) was born Shmuel Gelbfisz in Warsaw, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}