{"id":55859,"date":"2021-09-27T18:23:14","date_gmt":"2021-09-27T22:23:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=55859"},"modified":"2021-09-27T18:23:14","modified_gmt":"2021-09-27T22:23:14","slug":"revisiting-china-stocks-how-theyll-save-evergrande-how-jeff-bezos-excels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=55859","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting China stocks, How they&#8217;ll save Evergrande; How Jeff Bezos excels."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stinky day for most techs. But great for my running down-the-line backhand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I remain in tech. I have faith. I bought a tiny bit of FRSH and ESMT.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In recent days, I sold CCI, GXO, ROKU, PTON, TDOC and ZM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">China fascinates and confuses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My conclusion: The less my investments depend on China&#8217;s quirkinesses, the better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Item: Four leading Chinese stocks this year. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent and JD. Horrible performance:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55867\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/baba-YTD.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"401\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But also semi-horrible performance this year from two stocks with huge China involvement &#8212; Apple and Tesla. They both have done worse than my favorite Vanguard ETF called VGT (in <strong><span style=\"color: #ff00ff;\">red):<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55868\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/TSLA-ytd.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"408\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">China is different to the U.S. Of the biggest 25 companines in China, <strong>20 are state-owned<\/strong>.\u00a0That&#8217;s an amazing statistic. Check out <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Wikipedia.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The best explanation of what&#8217;s happening in China is from today&#8217;s <em>New York Times.<\/em>\u00a0Here it is. It&#8217;s engrossing:<\/p>\n<div class=\"css-1vkm6nb ehdk2mb0\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<p id=\"link-43139e94\" class=\"css-rsa88z e1h9rw200\" data-testid=\"headline\"><strong>\u00a0 \u00a0How China Plans to Avert an Evergrande Financial Crisis<\/strong><br \/>\nControl of the banking system gives Beijing the tools to stop a broader collapse, officials believe, while censorship and police powers can stifle protests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-10cldcv\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<div class=\"css-151u6du\" data-testid=\"share-toolbar\">\n<div class=\"css-d8bdto\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-label=\"Social Media Share buttons, Save button, and Comments Panel with current comment count\" data-testid=\"share-tools\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-55870\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/26china-crisis1-jumbo-800x534.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/26china-crisis1-jumbo-800x534.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/26china-crisis1-jumbo-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/26china-crisis1-jumbo.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em><span class=\"css-16f3y1r e13ogyst0\" aria-hidden=\"true\">Police and security personnel outside China Evergrande Group headquarters in Shenzhen, China, on Friday.<\/span><span class=\"css-cnj6d5 e1z0qqy90\"><span class=\"css-1ly73wi e1tej78p0\">Credit&#8230;<\/span>Ng Han Guan\/Associated Press<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"byline-prefix\">By\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1baulvz last-byline\"><a class=\"css-ozn3l9 e1jsehar0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/by\/keith-bradsher\">Keith Bradsher<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"css-1fanzo5 StoryBodyCompanionColumn\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">BEIJING \u2014 In any other country, the sudden collapse of a corporate titan with more than $300 billion in debt would send shock waves across the economy. Headlines would blare. Banks would shudder. Investors would panic.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">A corporate collapse of that scale may happen soon. But it would be in China, where the Communist Party keeps a firm grip on money, corporate boardrooms, the media and the broader society. Those controls may be facing one of their toughest tests yet, but Beijing is signaling that it feels up to the challenge \u2014 even if it will first try to teach big investors and companies a bitter lesson about lending recklessly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The financial world is watching the struggles of China Evergrande Group, one of the largest property developers on earth and certainly the most indebted. Last week, a deadline to make\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/09\/23\/business\/china-evergrande-bond-payment.html\">an $83 million payment<\/a>\u00a0to foreign investors came and went with no indication that Evergrande had met its obligations, raising questions about what would happen if its huge debt load went sour.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The Chinese government doesn\u2019t want to move in yet because it hopes Evergrande\u2019s struggles will show other Chinese companies that they need to be disciplined in their finances, say people with knowledge of its deliberations who insisted on anonymity. But it has an array of financial tools that it believes are strong enough to stem a financial panic if matters worsen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"><\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"story-ad-1-wrapper\" class=\"css-zz666k\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<div id=\"story-ad-1-slug\" class=\"css-l9onyx\">\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The government is \u201cstill going to provide a guarantee\u201d for much of Evergrande\u2019s activities, said Zhu Ning, deputy dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, \u201cbut the investors are going to have to sweat.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The authorities have other ways to quell public unease about Evergrande. For months, local governments have been issuing directives urging Communist Party officials and companies to look out for budding protests related to China\u2019s troubled property developers. Some notices warn officials to monitor aggrieved home buyers, unpaid contractors and even laid-off real estate salespeople.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cFollow the demand to spot them early, defuse early, control early and deal with early,\u201d the housing department of Lingshan County in southern China\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/KDHrM#selection-263.50-263.73\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">said in a directive<\/a>\u00a0about possible protests earlier this year. \u201cThe heads of property development firms must personally take in hand the work of dealing with petitions and maintaining stability.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Censorship of the press and social media makes it hard for the general public to know about the extent of Evergrande\u2019s troubles and for Evergrande home buyers and investors to organize.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe government can place them under watch and pressure them through their employers or relatives not to make trouble,\u201d said Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College who is writing a study of China\u2019s domestic security apparatus.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">China has a lot riding on its ability to contain the fallout from an Evergrande collapse. After Xi Jinping, China\u2019s most powerful leader in generations, began his second term in 2017, he identified reining in financial risk as one of the \u201cgreat battles\u201d for his administration. As he approaches a likely third term in power that would start next year, it could be politically damaging if his government were to mismanage Evergrande.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">But China\u2019s problem may be that it controls financial panics too well. Economists inside and outside the country argue that its safeguards have coddled Chinese investors, leaving them too willing to lend money to large companies with weak prospects for repaying it. Over the longer term, though, China\u2019s bigger risk may be that it follows in the footsteps of Japan, which saw years of economic stagnation under the weight of huge debt and slow, unproductive companies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">By not forcefully signaling an Evergrande bailout, the Chinese government is essentially trying to force both investors and Chinese companies to stop channeling money to risky, heavily indebted companies. Yet that approach carries risks, especially if a disorderly collapse upsets China\u2019s legions of home buyers or unnerves potential investors in the property market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">An abrupt default by Evergrande on a wide range of debts \u201cwould be a useful catalyst for market discipline, but could also sour both domestic and foreign investor sentiment,\u201d said Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University who is a former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Some global investors worry that Evergrande\u2019s problems represent a \u201cLehman moment,\u201d a reference to the 2008 collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, which heralded the global financial crisis. Evergrande\u2019s collapse, they warn, could expose other debt problems in China and hit foreign investors, who hold considerable amounts of Evergrande debt, and other property developers in the country.<\/p>\n<p>Chinese officials believe they have the situation under control.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">or starters, Beijing controls the country\u2019s banking system to a degree that goes far beyond bank regulations in the West. The major lenders are state-owned companies that prioritize the government\u2019s economic policy over their own bottom lines. Rather than demand repayment, China\u2019s banks have negotiated opaque deals with Evergrande for months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Control of the banks also gives Beijing access to their vast ocean of money from the country\u2019s deposits, providing a thick financial cushion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">China also strictly controls the movement of money across its borders. Chinese and global investors can\u2019t suddenly head for the exits if they get worried. Those controls helped insulate China from an Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 that heavily damaged other regional economies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Finally, the Communist Party firmly controls the courts, so any effort to force Evergrande into bankruptcy and take it apart would need approval from top leaders. So the authorities can avoid a rushed sell-off like Lehman\u2019s in 2008, that could result in fire-sale prices for Evergrande\u2019s land, apartments and other collateral, along with huge layoffs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The Chinese government is convinced that, with a properly managed restructuring, Evergrande has enough assets to cover a sizable majority of the company\u2019s debts, said people familiar with Chinese economic policymaking. Officials have already calmly overseen the dismemberment of\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/02\/23\/business\/anbang-china-xi-deals.html\">Anbang<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/02\/06\/business\/hna-was-once-chinas-biggest-dealmaker-now-it-faces-bankruptcy.html\">HNA<\/a>, two debt-laden empires, and forced the shrinkage of a third,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/01\/business\/dalian-wanda-group-china-debt.html\">Dalian Wanda<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">State influence over major companies can help with that process. Some combination of the country\u2019s biggest state-owned real estate and construction companies could step in to complete Evergrande\u2019s roughly 800 unfinished complexes and pay off contractors. Officials see that as one of the benefits of the state sector\u2019s expansion under Mr. Xi, which the party has promoted as an effort to make sure the economic benefits of China\u2019s growth are broadly shared.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cThe state-owned enterprises will make sure the apartments are delivered, to avoid social instability,\u201d Mr. Zhu said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The Chinese government has much less sympathy for foreign and large domestic investors, who are sophisticated and should know the risks, said people familiar with Chinese economic policymaking.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Chinese leaders can also supplement their financial tools by managing public perception and response. Ever since the construction industry became a mainstay of China\u2019s economy in the 1990s, disputes between home purchasers and developers have led to protests. Home buyers, who often purchase their apartments before they are built, have tried to unite over complaints about shoddy workmanship and unfilled promises.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">This month, for example, hundreds of home buyers in Jingdezhen, a ceramics-making city in southern China,\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/9U7or\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">organized protests<\/a>\u00a0over fears that Evergrande would collapse before it finished handing over legal ownership of their apartments.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">The authorities responded quickly. After the protests in Jingdezhen, a social media page operated by a nearby county government carried warnings that the home buyers could be arrested for demonstrating. It suggested that Evergrande would survive but that its managers would be held to account. \u201cPeople and businesses that go back on their word will certainly receive their deserved punishment,\u201d read\u00a0<a class=\"css-1g7m0tk\" title=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/hye0K#selection-311.55-311.101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an article on the page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">Such steps can douse unrest. But it could be harder to restore confidence eroded by an Evergrande default, said Professor Pei of Claremont McKenna.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-axufdj evys1bk0\">\u201cThe economic impact is impossible to contain with a show of physical force because the impact will work through consumer confidence and micro-level decisions made by millions\u201d of businesses, he said. \u201cThat\u2019s a far tougher challenge that would require adroit economic policy responses.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-pncxxs etfikam0\"><em>Chris Buckley\u00a0contributed reporting from Sydney, Australia.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">A wonderful read<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The best part of this book is the introduction by Walter Isaacson.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55839\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/INvwent-and-Wander.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"237\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Isaacson&#8217;s introduction begins:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">I AM OFTEN ASKED who, of the people living today, I would consider to be in the same league as those I have written about as a biographer: Leonardo da Vinci, Benjamin Franklin, Ada Lovelace, Steve Jobs, and Albert Einstein. All were very smart. But that\u2019s not what made them special. Smart people are a dime a dozen and often don\u2019t amount to much. What counts is being creative and imaginative. That\u2019s what makes someone a true innovator. And that\u2019s why my answer to the question is Jeff Bezos.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">What all these fine people had in common was unbridled curiosity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And the curiosity leads them to a new vision of the world. Isaacson gives examples.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The book is available for free (or for money) on Kindle at Amazon. Click <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Invent-Wander-Collected-Writings-Introduction-ebook\/dp\/B08BCCT6MW\/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1UJ91464NNPW7&amp;dchild=1&amp;keywords=invent+and+wander&amp;qid=1632605404&amp;sprefix=invent+%2Caps%2C167&amp;sr=8-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Reasons I love reading books using Kindle on my laptop<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I don&#8217;t have to hold the book on my lap in bed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ When I highlight a passage, it copies it to my own part of Amazon.com.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I can increase the type face to old people size.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ It remembers where I was.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ It has a nice dictionary for words I find hard. (Most of them.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Kindle books come faster to me than paper books. I buy them. They&#8217;re on my laptop or iPhone within seconds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Go traveling on your laptop<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><em>The Most Colorful Places in the World<\/em><br \/>\nFrom green to yellow, here are some of the most vibrant places on the planet.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is in Provence, France, but I&#8217;ve seen the same in Western Oregon. And it&#8217;s breathtaking.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55835\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Most-Colorful-Places.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"376\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Favorite cartoons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55874\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/politician-sin.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"731\" height=\"563\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-55875\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/hoodies.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"380\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-55876\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/older.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"569\" height=\"511\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-55877\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/hearing.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"608\" height=\"438\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">See you tomorrow. <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stinky day for most techs. But great for my running down-the-line backhand. I remain in tech. I have faith. I bought a tiny bit of FRSH and ESMT. In recent days, I sold CCI, GXO, ROKU, PTON, TDOC and ZM. China fascinates and confuses. My conclusion: The less my investments depend on China&#8217;s quirkinesses, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55859"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55880,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55859\/revisions\/55880"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}