![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ixic-one-day.jpg\")
<\/p>\nStocks go up and down, though mostly (over the years) up.<\/p>\n
This was yesterday on Nasdaq. Gruesome.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
You can paint anything good or bad for stocks. Anything.<\/p>\n
Inflation. Ending inflation. Technology to change the world. Technology (like war) to destroy the world.<\/p>\n
Fact is nobody knows why they go up or down.<\/p>\n
Yesterday inflation was going up at 7.5%. And stock prices crashed. Today inflation is 8.5% and stock prices are rising.<\/p>\n
Look at today and yesterday on Nasdaq, home of most of the technology stocks I’ve pushed.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ixic2days.jp_.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Yesterday I was freaking. Today I’m ecstatic. Today my portfolio is up a small house (which I don’t want or need).<\/p>\n
Obviously I should not be looking every day. My friends don’t. They’re more intelligent.<\/p>\n
There are always hot investments around.<\/p>\n
RV Lots in South Florida have doubled in price in the last year. When covid came, everybody and their uncle bought an RV (recreational vehicle):<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/RV.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
And decked it out with simple home living..<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/rv2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
and wanted to live out the winter in the south. Hence there are now more RVs in Florida than their are lots to park them on. As one happy new owner told me “It’s all a matter of supply and demand.”<\/p>\n
In Columbia County, NY, you can’t find a plumber for love. But you can for money. Every apprentice plumber is leaving their old employer and starting their own business. The locals routinely offer a “bonus” of $10,000 cash if you drop Robert’s job and come do mine. The bribers are rich people who fled New York City during covid for the bucolic charms of the County — where they build ginormous houses for the price of a studio in New York City.<\/p>\n
The Fed Reserve is obliged to do two things: keep inflation low — around 2% — and employment full. It does this by\u00a0telling us what it’s going to do.\u00a0Psychology is its most powerful weapon.<\/p>\n
It also interest raises and sucks money out of the economy — by selling the bonds it owns. This puts a “brake” on the economy and prices. Maybe. It not precise. Often the Fed overshoots.<\/p>\n
Some argue that our heady inflation will cure itself once supply chain bottlenecks become un-bottled and we’ll settle back to business as usual, i.e. no more covid scares and (hopefully) the defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
My friend Joel Ross writes today in his Ross Rant newsletter:<\/p>\n
The next four to six weeks are going to determine world history, maybe for generations. Ukraine has an opportunity to destroy the Russian army now, no matter what it takes to do so. This is not going to take years. The Ukrainians are highly motivated to go for the kill and revenge. The Russians are throwing every reserve they have into it now; they are unmotivated and have just suffered a major defeat.. If those troops get demolished there are no more reserves. There seems finally to be a recognition by some of NATO that this is it. There will not be another opportunity to destroy Russia and possibly cause China to rethink invading Taiwan as the next few weeks. …<\/p>\n
Yesterday I showed what the Ukrainians do with surface to air missiles the U.S. and Great Britain give them. I believe we’re speeding up deliveries.<\/p>\n
I’m not smart enough to predict yesterday or today in the stockmarket. So, in the main, I hold everything I own. And only sell stocks whose business outlook has changed for the absolute worse.<\/p>\n
Some gurus think we’re in for a recession. The writing is definitely on the wall. Here’s piece from the Economist<\/em>, which explains some of the conventional recession thinking:<\/p>\n The Economist: Recession roulette<\/span> Just a year\u00a0ago the world\u2019s economists were celebrating a rapid rebound from recession. Now they are worrying that the next downturn could be looming. In America the Federal Reserve is preparing to do battle with high inflation by\u00a0raising interest rates\u00a0sharply and shrinking its balance-sheet. In Europe expensive energy is sapping consumers of spending power and making factories costlier to run. And in China an outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has led the authorities to impose the strictest lockdowns since the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n It is a gloomy combination for global growth, and the outlook is darkening. Several economies could even suffer recessions, though at different times depending on the obstacles they face.<\/p>\n The economy in the United States is overheating. The annual rate of consumer-price inflation is 7.9% and hourly wages are 5.6% higher than they were a year ago. America has nearly twice as many job openings as it does unemployed workers\u2014the highest ratio in 70 years. For much of 2021 central bankers hoped that Americans who left the labour force after the pandemic struck would return, helping cool the labour market. In the past six months their prayers have been answered: more than half the missing workers of prime working age\u00a0have returned. Yet wage growth has risen anyway, perhaps because workers are negotiating hard as rising prices erode living standards.<\/p>\n The Fed needs both wage and price growth to cool if it is to hit its 2% inflation target. It is expected to raise short-term interest rates, which started the year below 0.25%, to over 2.5% by December, and to continue to raise rates above 3% in 2023. This week the central bank trailed a plan to shrink its $8.5trn bond holdings, starting in May, at a much faster pace than during the last period of \u201cquantitative tightening\u201d.<\/p>\n Hitting the monetary brakes, though necessary, endangers growth. History suggests that the Fed finds it difficult to cool the jobs market without eventually tipping the economy into recession. It has pulled off a \u201csoft landing\u201d only three times since 1945. And it has never done so while battling high inflation. Bond investors are betting that in two years\u2019 time the Fed will have to cut rates again as the economy weakens. Given the record, a recession in the next two years looks likely.<\/p>\n Europe has an inflation problem, too, but it is so far caused by expensive imported energy and food more than by overheating. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions threaten the continent\u2019s energy supply. Gas prices for next winter are five times higher than in America, and spending on household energy is almost twice as high as a share of\u00a0gdp\u00a0(partly because Europe is poorer). As energy prices have surged, consumer confidence has slumped. Firms are struggling, too: French industrial production fell in February.<\/p>\n The euro area\u2019s economy will probably still grow in 2022 as a whole. But it looks fragile. Should Europe stop importing Russian gas\u2014whether because it chooses to or the Kremlin decides to cut off the supply\u2014the danger of a recession will rise.<\/p>\n The threat to global growth from\u00a0China\u2019s Omicron outbreak\u00a0is the most severe and immediate. China reported over\u00a020,000 new cases of the virus on April 6th. Because the government is committed to eliminating covid-19, Shanghai\u2019s 26m residents, and those of other big cities with outbreaks, are under lockdown. If the past relationship between lockdowns and\u00a0gdp\u00a0holds, China\u2019s real-time output will be 7.1% lower than in a world with no restrictions, according to Goldman Sachs. Lockdowns will also disrupt global trade, which is still struggling with a hangover from earlier in the pandemic. Shanghai is the latest global port to see hundreds of ships back up offshore, waiting to load or unload.<\/p>\n Xi Jinping, China\u2019s president, has urged officials to cut the costs of its restrictions. But if it opens up too soon, mainland China will see a wave of infection and deaths like that which recently plagued Hong Kong. That would scare consumers and become a source of economic disruption in its own right. Until China vaccinates its elderly in sufficient numbers using the most effective jabs, lockdowns will be an enduring feature of its economy and a source of global volatility.<\/p>\n The blame for the world economy\u2019s many troubles lies squarely with policymakers. The Fed\u2019s job is supposed to be to take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going; it has instead presided over a blowout. Europe\u2019s governments let the continent become dependent on Russian natural gas. And China\u2019s difficulty in suppressing Omicron was predictable, and widely predicted. Economic trouble often strikes as a bolt from the blue. Today\u2019s recession scare was avoidable.<\/p>\n Zelensky’s powerful video and the investment message it carries<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n The first head of state who called George W. Bush after 9\/11 was Putin.<\/p>\n The brilliant salesman who sold Germany on relying on Russian gas was Putin, who speaks fluent German.<\/p>\n Why rely\u00a0 on anything or anyone. What moron would not be diversified?<\/p>\n Diversification is the ONLY free lunch in our business.<\/p>\n It protects you when something goes awry, as it\u00a0always<\/strong> do.<\/p>\n Here’ s Zelensky’s powerful (and short) video.\u00a0Click here<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Now send some money to my favorite charity World Central Kitchens, which is feeding Ukrainian refugees. Click here<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n Send them $500 today and you don’t have to send me the $500 for the all the money I’ve made you and saved you over the years — by recommending against PayPal, Chinese stocks, banks, cannabis, biotech,\u00a0 and funds run by big investment bankers, etc. etc.<\/p>\n I don’t understand And others say they can’t lose weight. Yet I watch them eat vast amounts at mealtime – especially meat and french fries.<\/p>\n It’s not as if this “healthy” stuff hasn’t been documented, and proven for eons.<\/p>\n Heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women in the U.S. and worldwide.<\/p>\n Why are people so fat? You rarely see a fat old person. I wonder why?<\/p>\n The best food is…. drumroll<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Blueberries. You should have some every day. Google “health benefits of blueberries.” You’ll be blown away.<\/p>\n Passover\u00a0 begins Friday night<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n It celebrates Moses taking the Israelites out of Egypt.<\/p>\n The story goes: Moses and the Israelites leave Egypt, travel the desert, finally reach the Red Sea.<\/p>\n Needing to get across the Sea, Moses calls for his VP Engineering. “Build me a bridge.”<\/p>\n “No bridge. We’re in the desert. Look around. No wood. No steel.”<\/p>\n Moses calls for his VP Sales. “Go back. Work a deal with the Egyptians.”<\/p>\n After an hour, the VP sales returns, “Sorry, boss. No deal. They want us dead.”<\/p>\n In desperation, Moses calls for his VP Public Relations. “Yankele, what do we do?”<\/p>\n Yankele responds, “See that rock. Stand on it. Lift your arms. Ask God to open the Red Sea.<\/p>\n He will. Take your Israelites through the gap. When you get to the other side you’ll notice another rock. Stand on it. Wait for the Eyptians and their chariots and war machinery to fill the gap. Raise your hands up. Ask God to close the gap. Make the waters to flow. He will. Your enemies will be destroyed and you can pass on safely to The Promised Land.”<\/p>\n Moses, skeptically: “This stuff gonna work?”<\/p>\n Yankele replies, “I don’t know. … But if it does, I’ll get you three pages in the Old Testament.”<\/p>\n Living in the country has its charms<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n As I wrote this blog we lost commercial electricity. Fortunately, I have more battery backups than Carter had liver pills. Even my one gig fiber line has its own battery backup. So I kept on chugging.<\/p>\n Our Toto toilet broke. Last night I replaced the fill valve with a new one from Amazon. I guess that saved me $10,000 which is definitely better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish.<\/p>\n There are two lessons — diversification. I own some energy. And yesterday — for my first time ever — I bought some puts. They were on Apple. And they’re predictably now losing me money. My biggest gainers today are Apple, Google, Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Amazon and Tesla. Not because I’m smart, but because of I own a lot of them. I like what these six do for a living. You can see the list of stocks I own in the right hand column on my web site. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Heh, things are pretty good. I just got a package mailed via the Post Office from New York to Columbia County in less than two days. Tracking number and all.<\/p>\n Connie Mandel just turned 96. She breaths the clean air up here and drives to Main Street Goodness, our favorite breakfast place in Chatham, NY, to have a date with me, a minor 79-year old whom she’s cradle-snatching. I wish when we’re 96, we’re all as healthy and as happy as Connie Mandel.<\/p>\n Connie, I love you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Stocks go up and down, though mostly (over the years) up. This was yesterday on Nasdaq. Gruesome. You can paint anything good or bad for stocks. Anything. Inflation. Ending inflation. Technology to change the world. Technology (like war) to destroy the world. Fact is nobody knows why they go up or down. 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\nA toxic mix of recession risks hangs over the world economy<\/strong>
\nAmerican inflation, Europe\u2019s energy crisis and China\u2019s Omicron outbreak threaten the world economy with a downturn<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Zelensky-video.jpg\")
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\n<\/strong><\/span>
\nI have friends who refuse to eat vegetables and refuse to exercise — even walking for 30 minutes a day. Others say they “can’t” nap.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/blueberries.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/moses-parts.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/crossing-the-red-sea.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Connie-Mondel-96-BIrthday-small.png\")
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