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Why I didn’t invest in crypto<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Three reasons:<\/p>\n + I couldn’t figure where the value was. In other words, why bitcoin or (others) would go up — other than The Greater Fool Theory.<\/em><\/p>\n + I thought the whole process of making bitcoin to be contrived, though brilliant hype and a great story.<\/p>\n + I was late. Some people saw it early, watched it rise and got out with a nice profit. I was not that smart.<\/p>\n There is a lesson here: There will always a new “pet rock” that someone is promoting. In a world flush with money (like even today), there’ll always be a new way to gamble. 99% of the gambles will prove a disaster. Trust me on that one. I’ve gambled with the best (and worst) of them. And lost most. Often 100% of what I invested.<\/p>\n Remember Todd Kingsley’s brilliant lore: “When in doubt, stay out<\/em>.”<\/p>\n Below is a front page piece from the New York Times, “As Cryptocurrencies Melt Down, $300 billion Evaporates in Days<\/em>.”<\/p>\n My recent bouts with Elon<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n I bought some TWTR thinking his deal would go through at $54.20. I bought at $51.50. Clearly, it isn’t, or so far, hasn’t and I’m in a hole:<\/p>\n Elon is one of the most brilliant men around.<\/p>\n Today a New York Times writer tried to define him:<\/p>\n A term like \u201cconservative\u201d doesn\u2019t fit the Tesla tycoon; even \u201clibertarian,\u201d while closer to the mark, associates Musk with a lot of ideas that I don\u2019t think he particularly cares about. A better label comes from Virginia Postrel, in her 1998 book \u201cThe Future and Its Enemies\u201d: Musk is what she calls a \u201cdynamist,\u201d meaning someone whose primary commitments are to exploration and discovery, someone who believes that the best society is one that\u2019s always inventing, transforming, doing something new.<\/em><\/p>\n That’s a pretty good description. Read the rest of the article here.<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n How Turkey spawned a drone entrepreneur<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n The piece to read is “Weapon of Influence.<\/strong> The Bayraktar TB2 has brought precision air-strike capabilities to\u00a0Ukraine and other countries. It\u2019s also a diplomatic tool, enabling\u00a0Turkey\u2019s rise.<\/em>“<\/p>\n The totally engrossing piece is in the latest New Yorker<\/em>. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Harry’s Favorite Drugs From today’s New York Times:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Cryptocurrencies Melt Down in a \u2018Perfect Storm\u2019 of Fear and Panic SAN FRANCISCO \u2014 The price of\u00a0Bitcoin<\/a>\u00a0plunged to its lowest point since 2020. Coinbase, the large cryptocurrency exchange, tanked in value. A cryptocurrency that promoted itself as a stable means of exchange collapsed. And more than $300 billion<\/a>\u00a0was wiped out by a crash in cryptocurrency prices since Monday.<\/p>\n The\u00a0crypto world<\/a>\u00a0went into a full meltdown this week in a sell-off that graphically illustrated the risks of the experimental and unregulated digital currencies. Even as\u00a0celebrities<\/a>\u00a0such as Kim Kardashian and tech moguls like Elon Musk have talked up crypto, the accelerating declines of virtual currencies like Bitcoin and Ether show that, in some cases, two years of financial gains can disappear overnight.<\/p>\n The moment of panic amounted to the worst reset in cryptocurrencies since Bitcoin plummeted 80 percent in 2018. But this time, the falling prices have broader impact because more people and institutions hold the currencies. Critics said the collapse was long overdue, while some traders compared the alarm and fear to the start of the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is like the perfect storm,\u201d said Dan Dolev, an analyst who covers crypto companies and financial technology at the Mizuho Group.<\/p>\n During the coronavirus pandemic, people have flooded into virtual currencies, with 16 percent of Americans now owning some, up from 1 percent in 2015, according to a\u00a0Pew Research Center survey<\/a>.\u00a0Big banks<\/a>\u00a0like Northern Trust and Bank of America also streamed in, along with\u00a0hedge funds<\/a>, some using debt to further juice their crypto bets.<\/p>\n Early investors are still probably in a comfortable position. But the rapid declines this week have been especially acute for investors who bought cryptocurrencies when prices surged last year.<\/p>\n The fall in cryptocurrencies is part of a broader pullback from risky assets, spurred by rising interest rates, inflation and economic uncertainty caused by Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Those factors have compounded a so-called pandemic hangover that began as life started returning to normal in the United States, hurting the stock prices of companies like Zoom and Netflix that thrived during lockdowns.<\/p>\n But crypto\u2019s decline is more severe than the broader plunge in the stock market. While the S&P 500 is down 18 percent so far this year, Bitcoin\u2019s price has dropped 40 percent in the same period. In the last five days alone, Bitcoin has tumbled 20 percent, compared to a 5 percent decline in the S&P 500.<\/p>\n How long crypto\u2019s collapse might last is unclear. Cryptocurrency prices have typically rebounded from major losses, though in some cases it took several years to reach new heights.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s hard to say, \u2018Is this Lehman Brothers?\u2019\u201d said Charles Cascarilla, a founder of the blockchain company Paxos, referring to the financial services firm that went bankrupt at the start of the 2008 financial crisis. \u201cWe\u2019re going to need some more time to figure it out. You can\u2019t respond at this type of speed.\u201d<\/p>\n The origins of cryptocurrencies trace back to 2008, when a shadowy figure calling himself\u00a0Satoshi Nakamoto<\/a>\u00a0created Bitcoin. The virtual currency was portrayed as a decentralized alternative to the traditional financial system. Rather than relying on gatekeepers like banks to facilitate commerce, Bitcoin proponents preferred to conduct transactions among themselves, recording each one on a shared ledger called a blockchain.<\/p>\n Prominent tech leaders including Mr. Musk, Jack Dorsey, a founder of Twitter, and Marc Andreessen, an investor, embraced the technology as it grew from a novel curiosity into a cultlike movement. The value of cryptocurrencies exploded, minting a new class of crypto billionaires. Other forms of cryptocurrency, including Ether and Dogecoin, captured the public\u2019s attention, particularly in the pandemic, when excess cash in the financial system led people to day trade for entertainment.<\/p>\n Cryptocurrency prices reached a peak late last year and have since slid as fears over the economy grew. But the meltdown gathered momentum this week when TerraUSD, a stablecoin, imploded. Stablecoins, which are meant to be a more reliable means of exchange, are typically pegged to a stable asset such as the U.S. dollar and are intended not to fluctuate in value. Many traders use them to buy other cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n TerraUSD had the backing of credible venture capital firms, including Arrington Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, which invested\u00a0tens of millions<\/a>\u00a0of dollars to fund crypto projects built on the currency. That gave \u201ca false sense of security to people who might not otherwise know about these things,\u201d said Kathleen Breitman, one of the founders of Tezos, a crypto platform.<\/p>\n But TerraUSD was not backed by cash, treasuries or other traditional assets. Instead, it derived its supposed stability from algorithms that linked its value to a sister cryptocurrency called Luna.<\/p>\n This week, Luna lost almost its entire value. That immediately had a knock-on effect on TerraUSD, which fell to a low of 23 cents on Wednesday. As investors panicked, Tether, the most popular stablecoin and a linchpin of crypto trading, also wavered from its own $1 peg. Tether fell as low as $0.95 before recovering. (Tether is backed by cash and other traditional assets.)<\/p>\n The volatility quickly drew attention in Washington, where stablecoins have been on regulators\u2019 radar. Last fall, the Treasury Department issued a\u00a0report<\/a>\u00a0calling on Congress to devise rules for the stablecoin ecosystem.<\/p>\n \u201cWe really need a regulatory framework,\u201d Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at a congressional hearing on Thursday. \u201cIn the last couple of days, we\u2019ve had a real-life demonstration of the risks.\u201d<\/p>\n Stablecoins \u201cpresent the same kinds of risks that we have known for centuries in connection with bank runs,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n Other parts of the crypto ecosystem soured at the same time. On Tuesday, Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, reported a $430 million quarterly loss and said it had lost more than two million active users. The company\u2019s stock price has plunged 82 percent since its\u00a0triumphant market debut in April 2021<\/a><\/p>\n Brian Armstrong, Coinbase\u2019s chief executive, tried to reassure customers on Twitter that the company was not in danger of going bankrupt after a required legal disclosure about the ownership of its assets stoked panic.<\/p>\n Cryptocurrency prices also dropped precipitously. The price of Bitcoin fell as low as $26,000 on Thursday, down 60 percent from its peak in November, before rising somewhat. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin\u2019s price movement has\u00a0closely mirrored<\/a>\u00a0that of the Nasdaq, a benchmark that\u2019s heavily weighted toward technology stocks, suggesting that investors are treating it like any other risk asset.<\/p>\n The price of Ether plunged, too, losing more than 30 percent of its value over the last week. Other cryptocurrencies, like Solana and Cardano, are also down.<\/p>\n Any panic might be overblown, some analysts said. A study by Mizuho showed that the average Bitcoin owner on Coinbase would not lose money until the digital currency\u2019s price sank below $21,000. That, according to Mr. Dolev, is where a true death spiral could occur.<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin was working as long as no one lost money,\u201d he said. \u201cOnce it gets back to those levels, that\u2019s sort of the \u2018Oh, my God\u2019 moment.\u201d<\/p>\n Professional investors who have weathered past crypto volatility also stayed calm. Hunter Horsley, chief executive of Bitwise Asset Management, which provides crypto investing services to 1,000 financial advisers, met with more than 70 of them this week to discuss the market. Many were not selling, he said, because every other asset was down, too. Some were even trying to capitalize on the drop.<\/p>\n \u201cTheir standpoint is, \u2018This is no fun, but there is nowhere to hide,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Still, the plummeting prices have rattled crypto traders. Just a few months ago, blockchain proponents were predicting that Bitcoin\u2019s price could rise as high as $100,000 this year.<\/p>\n \u201cI never thought things would get ugly this fast,\u201d said Ed Moya, a crypto analyst at the trading firm OANDA.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/twitter-ten-days.jpg\")
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\n<\/strong><\/span>For heartburn:
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/prilosec.jpg\")
\nFor today’s hideous hay fever\/allergies:
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Claritin.jpg\")
\nFor protecting my sensitive skin:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/suntancream.jpg\")
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\n<\/strong>A steep sell-off that gained momentum this week starkly illustrated the risks of the experimental and unregulated digital currencies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/crypto-collapse-800x587.jpg\")
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