{"id":58734,"date":"2022-07-28T13:19:33","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T17:19:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=58734"},"modified":"2022-07-28T13:23:06","modified_gmt":"2022-07-28T17:23:06","slug":"why-even-i-cant-predict-anything-but-i-have-some-ideas-that-amazingly-are-making-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=58734","title":{"rendered":"Why even I can’t predict anything. But I have some ideas — that amazingly are making money."},"content":{"rendered":"

The day before yesterday: My headline: “Another 33% drop in stock prices? It\u2019s possible.<\/em>“<\/p>\n

Yesterday:\u00a0A 4% gain on Nasdaq and it’s still going up. Today up 0.44%, so far.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

I’m an idiot.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The cause? The news.<\/p>\n

The Fed raised rates 75 basis point. And Jay Powell said we weren’t in a recession. He wasn’t going to put us in one. (What do you expect him to say?)<\/p>\n

He will\u00a0<\/strong>bring inflation down from 9% to to 2%.<\/p>\n

His interest rate hikes will hurt housing. He’s done that.<\/p>\n

But where’s his enemy inflation coming from?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Now look more closely where the inflation is coming from:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The top four items are all related to the price of oil. — which Jay Powell’s interest rate changes have no affect on.<\/p>\n

I repeat no effect.<\/p>\n

Nor will this idiocy, Biden’s fist bump with a man he once called a “pariah.” (Which he is.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What we can do is what Thomas Friedman suggested in New York Times. Namely meet with the domestic oil industry and get things moving on the domestic oil production front.<\/p>\n

Some words from Friedman’s column:<\/p>\n

When it comes to energy policy today, Biden is not realistically diagnosing our problems or offering a comprehensive solution. (He has also gotten zero help from the G.O.P.) Suspending the\u00a0federal gasoline tax<\/a>\u00a0or draining our strategic petroleum reserves is not a strategy. They are signals that you have none. America is the world\u2019s largest oil producer \u2014\u00a0not Russia or Saudi Arabia\u00a0<\/a>\u2014 and we need to get our act together fast by harmonizing three priorities.<\/p>\n

In the short term, we need more oil and gas produced in the cleanest ways, with the least methane leakage, to bring down prices at the pump and help dampen inflation. Also in the short term, we need to produce more oil and gas to export to our NATO allies in Europe that have vowed to get off Russian oil \u2014 because if the Europeans do so without an abundant alternative, the global price of oil could go to\u00a0$200 a barrel<\/a>\u00a0next winter and force their citizens to choose between heating and eating.<\/p>\n

Therefore, instead of going to Saudi Arabia, Biden should have put America\u2019s biggest domestic oil producers in a room with his top environment and energy experts and not have let them leave until they agreed on a strategy for maximizing the cleanest possible production of U.S. oil and gas, with the smartest carbon tax, with the smartest energy conservation measures, with the most realistic plans for carbon sequestration, and with the most credible plan to massively and rapidly expand our renewable energy portfolio.<\/p>\n

For Friedman’s full column, click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The upshot of all this inflation\/energy mess<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

+ Oil will go much higher. Probably to $140. Today WTI crude is $99. You need energy stocks in your portfolio. I like PXD and DVN. Both sport hugely high dividend yields.<\/p>\n

+ GDP for the second quarter was negative. Which means — in one definition — the U.S. is in a recession. Hence you need a “hedge” on your portfolio. My main one is government treasuries. Which pay 3% for one and two years. Less than half PXD and DVN.<\/p>\n

+ I’m mulling selling something short — like Nasdaq or some stocks I don’t like. I should have sold PayPal short eons ago. My brain is to find nice stocks, but to short ones I don’t like (which typically fall). I need to fix my brain. May sell some PUTs.<\/p>\n

+ Today you have to hedge. There are a million ways. I’m mulling.<\/p>\n

You get three of these on Amazon for the price of one on Walmart<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What is wrong with Walmart that they can’t figure this out? Cramer thinks Walmart are idiots. I do too. I haven’t bought anything there in years.<\/p>\n

I never owned Walmart stock and I never will. They’re hopeless. Have you checked their web site recently? It’s really awful.<\/p>\n

Palmolive is the greatest cleaner ever — I use it for floors, shoes, cars and even dishes.<\/p>\n

The second greatest cleaner is:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Spray it on troublesome stains (like tennis polos) and stick the garment in your washing machine with this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I love Tide.<\/p>\n

Techie tips<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

+ Rebooting works with Internet routers, cars, laptops, iPhones, airconditioners. In fact everything.
\nWhen in doubt, reboot.<\/p>\n

+ When rebooting doesn’t work, check the cable. It’s always the cable.<\/p>\n

+ Good idea to update your laptop and phone. Careful not to “upgrade” to Windows 11, which is pure drek. Even though my Microsoft shares are up.<\/p>\n

+ The greatest computer\/commuter backpack is<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It isn’t as big as it looks. It’s brilliantly designed, easy to carry, lightweight and ultra-cheap at $38.\u00a0 I use it every day. Click here. <\/strong><\/a>Add a sternum strap. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Sugar plums are in season<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The ones you want are rounder. I’m addicted to these things. The Chatham Berry Farm has them. The best produce in New York State. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Favorite recent New Yorker cartoons<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Progress (of sorts)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I’ve been nibbling. My new list of stocks and ETFs I own is in the right hand column on the web site. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

See you soon — Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The day before yesterday: My headline: “Another 33% drop in stock prices? It\u2019s possible.“ Yesterday:\u00a0A 4% gain on Nasdaq and it’s still going up. Today up 0.44%, so far.\u00a0 I’m an idiot. The cause? The news. The Fed raised rates 75 basis point. And Jay Powell said we weren’t in a recession. He wasn’t going […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58734"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58764,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58734\/revisions\/58764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}