{"id":59405,"date":"2022-11-16T08:38:34","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T13:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=59405"},"modified":"2022-11-16T20:56:06","modified_gmt":"2022-11-17T01:56:06","slug":"talking-tv-heads-think-its-off-to-the-races-im-more-cautious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=59405","title":{"rendered":"Talking TV heads think it&#8217;s off to the races. I&#8217;m more cautious."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Many TV talking heads think inflation has been conquered. The Fed will ease on rate increases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And the stockmarket is off to the races.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Buy what you like &#8212; Nvidia, Apple, Amazon. Taiwan Semiconductor, Tesla, etc.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Industries to buy because of what&#8217;s actually going on are coal, uranium, energy and defense.\u00a0 I own XLE, an energy ETF.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You could also buy VGT, a tech stock ETF. It&#8217;s bounced a little recently. Here&#8217;s its latest three months:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/VGT-Three-months-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"325\" height=\"199\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;ve been short VGT.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can still get 4.57% on a safe one-year U.S. Treasury.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My happiest readers believe the solution to the world&#8217;s problems is <strong>Dollar Cost Averaging.<\/strong> They don&#8217;t care what their portfolio is doing from month to month. They know that in ten years, it will be up substantially.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And they&#8217;re right.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Lessons from the FTX crypto blowup<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I was right to stay away from crypto currencies, like bitcoin:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Most investments derive their basic value from earnings and growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If there are no earnings and no growth &#8212; as in crypto &#8212; currencies &#8212; then fantasy, sentiment, enthusiasm and hype kick in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When bitcoin hit $60,000, I heard it was going to $250,000.\u00a0 It hasn&#8217;t, so far.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59433\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Bitcoin-prices-5-years.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"435\" height=\"314\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When someone gets rich quickly &#8212; too quickly &#8212; their fall often comes even more quickly. The cause &#8212; huge chutzpah. As in &#8220;I&#8217;m a genius, anything I touch will turn to gold.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I could write a book on all the fund managers who did well &#8212; for a while. Then they took one gamble too many. And it all blew up.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nothing has fallen as fast as Sam Bankman-Fried&#8217;s cryptocurrency exchange FTX. It could have more than a million creditors. That&#8217;s a lot of gullible &#8220;investors.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When in doubt, stay out. Todd&#8217;s favorite expression.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Read more on Sam&#8217;s blowup (if you really want to)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ From $32 billion to criminal investigations: How Sam Bankman-Fried\u2019s crypto empire vanished overnight. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/11\/15\/how-sam-bankman-frieds-ftx-alameda-empire-vanished-overnight.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+\u00a0Embattled Crypto Exchange FTX Files for Bankruptcy,<br \/>\nThe announcement capped a stunning week that has shocked the crypto industry. Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/11\/11\/business\/ftx-bankruptcy.html?searchResultPosition=3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Life changes<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Imagine the joy. You&#8217;ve just been awarded an exclusive on luggage carts at JFK Airport &#8212; one of the biggest\u00a0 airports in the world. $5 a 15 minute rental. Wow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59443\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/luggagecarts.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"290\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">An annuity for life. Put your kids and grandkids through\u00a0 college.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Until someone invented:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59445\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Rollig-Luggage.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"247\" height=\"376\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And your business just rolled out the door.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Pony Express lasted only 18 months before the telegraph hooked up the west coast.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My father used to say &#8220;<em>Take a little money home, just in case.<\/em>&#8220;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Talented son Michael won a room in Cancun for a week<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He invited Susan and me. All we had to do was to get there. JetBlue from JFK was efficient and four hours. Not cheap.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We stayed at the Vidanta resort. An amazing 1,000+ acres with everything from pools, to &#8220;thrill&#8221; rides, to zillions of restaurants, to golf, to tennis, to animals (iguanas, crocodiles, coatis and birds).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I liked the place.\u00a0 This is grandson Peter and friend, poolside:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59454\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/peter-and-inguanga.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"327\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is a cute short video I did with my iPhone 13, Watch it to the end.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 690px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-59405-1\" width=\"690\" height=\"1227\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/IMG_4260.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/IMG_4260.mp4\">https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/IMG_4260.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;m guessing they&#8217;re a couple.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Wo<\/strong><\/span><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">nderful cartoons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59434\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/appreciate-nothing.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"255\" height=\"214\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-59435\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/save-things.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"244\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/save-things.jpg 244w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/save-things-200x200.jpg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 244px) 100vw, 244px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59436\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/closet-door.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"325\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-59437\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/afternoon-naps.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"375\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-59441\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/relationships-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"325\" height=\"210\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>My joy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s a labor of love finding and publishing funny cartoons.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you have any favorites, please send them my way.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I should be back tomorrow, now I&#8217;ve returned to wet and snowy &#8220;civilization.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many TV talking heads think inflation has been conquered. The Fed will ease on rate increases. And the stockmarket is off to the races. Buy what you like &#8212; Nvidia, Apple, Amazon. Taiwan Semiconductor, Tesla, etc. Industries to buy because of what&#8217;s actually going on are coal, uranium, energy and defense.\u00a0 I own XLE, an [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59405"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59464,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59405\/revisions\/59464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}