{"id":598,"date":"2010-02-05T09:00:25","date_gmt":"2010-02-05T14:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=598"},"modified":"2010-02-05T09:24:29","modified_gmt":"2010-02-05T14:24:29","slug":"chickens-coming-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=598","title":{"rendered":"Chickens coming home"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rollover with a vengeance. Remember my columns in January recommending you get out of equities? Look what&#8217;s happened since:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DowRollover.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-612\" title=\"DowRollover\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DowRollover.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"739\" height=\"260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DowRollover.jpg 739w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DowRollover-300x105.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Not a pretty picture. But my recommendations &#8212; DOG, PSQ and SH have done handsomely. Thank you very much.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Have Comfort. You&#8217;re not an idiot. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Harvard Business School&#8217;s endowment lost <strong>30% <\/strong>in the year to June 30, 2009. They&#8217;re idiots in two respects: First to have the Harvard Management Company run HBS&#8217;s money. With $37 billion and all the business smarts in the world, they should have run their own money.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> Second, they should have pulled the plug after <strong>15%<\/strong>, and gone to cash. Then they should have gotten back in when the markets had risen <strong>15%.<\/strong> They be a lot better off today, despite this year&#8217;s stockmarket disaster.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #666699;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Jim Chanos is a bear<\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">.<\/span><\/span><\/strong> He runs $6 billion. \u00a0About 90% of his portfolio is short. He&#8217;s worried about China, the economy.\u00a0For the Chanos\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/james-chanos-on-earnings-shorting-china\/\" target=\"_blank\">video.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Remember the Cockroach Theory? <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">It says when a company reports something awry, there&#8217;ll be more and worse awry. If you&#8217;ve lived in New York, you&#8217;ll know its derivation. We have cockroaches. Friendly, filthy fellows. When you see one in your apartment, you kill it. But three days later, there&#8217;ll be another one and another one. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Toyota is the latest Cockroach. First, it was the mats. Then the sticky pedal. Then the messed-up accelerator software. Meanwhile the stock is doing a swan dive. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/ToyotaDisaster.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-609\" title=\"ToyotaDisaster\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/ToyotaDisaster.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"739\" height=\"260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/ToyotaDisaster.jpg 739w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/ToyotaDisaster-300x105.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">You think Toyota&#8217;s president will kill himself? He&#8217;s already killed a bunch of his customers. Suicide is in the cards. That&#8217;ll probably be a positive for the stock. Please don&#8217;t buy on this prediction. <\/span><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Remember the Cockroach Theory, Part 2. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Recently <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> one of my brokers breathlessly told me &#8220;<em>The smart money was getting into Bank of America<\/em>.&#8221; <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Well, right now the smart money is looking pretty stupid.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/BankofAmericaStupid.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-610\" title=\"BankofAmericaStupid\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/BankofAmericaStupid.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"739\" height=\"260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/BankofAmericaStupid.jpg 739w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/BankofAmericaStupid-300x105.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>But wait, it gets worse. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Last night New York&#8217;s gutsy Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, who wants to be governor, announced he was suing Bank of America. Here&#8217;s part of Cuomo&#8217;s press release, lifted directly off his web site:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">NEW YORK, NY (February 4, 2010) &#8211; Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, joined by Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program Neil Barofsky, today announced a lawsuit against Bank of America, its former CEO Kenneth D. Lewis, and its former CFO Joseph L. Price<strong> for duping shareholders and the federal government in order to complete a merger with Merrill Lynch. <\/strong>According to the lawsuit, Bank of America\u2019s management <strong>intentionally failed to disclose massive losses at Merrill so that shareholders would vote to approve the merger<\/strong>. Once the deal was approved, Bank of America\u2019s management <strong>manipulated the federal government into saving the deal with billions in taxpayer funds by falsely claiming that they would back out of the deal without bailout funds.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u201cThis merger is a classic example of how the actions of our nation\u2019s largest financial institutions led to the near-collapse of our financial system,\u201d said Attorney General Cuomo. \u201cBank of America, through its top management, engaged in a concerted effort to deceive shareholders and American taxpayers at large. This was an arrogant scheme hatched by the bank\u2019s top executives who believed they could play by their own set of rules. In the end, they committed an enormous fraud and American taxpayers ended up paying billions for Bank of America\u2019s misdeeds.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can find the entire <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ag.ny.gov\/media_center\/2010\/feb\/BoA_Complaint.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">lawsuit. <\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">You can bargain upwards and downwards. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Several CDs matured. I begged for higher-than published rates, and in most cases was successful. I also got Time Warner to drop my ridiculous monthly cable bill by close to 20%. I&#8217;m now on a one-year &#8220;introductory&#8221; rate. If you can&#8217;t make big money with your investments, take small comfort in saving a few shekels.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">There&#8217;s real thinking at Google. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">As you know, I&#8217;m not recommending Google at present. It&#8217;s been on a serious \u00a0downwards tear this year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Googlein2020.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Googlein2020\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Googlein2020.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"739\" height=\"260\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But it \u00a0does keep innovating. Search on Google for Northface Redpoint Jacket (my favorite). You&#8217;ll get the usual Google screen. But go to the top and hit Shopping. You&#8217;ll get this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/north-face-redpoint-jacket.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-602\" title=\"north-face-redpoint-jacket\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/north-face-redpoint-jacket.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"740\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Each one of these images looks like this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/RedpointJacket.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-603\" title=\"RedpointJacket\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/RedpointJacket.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"176\" height=\"263\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Click on the link and you&#8217;ll be at Nordstrom. What&#8217;s neat is you can order the results from lowest price to highest price. Bingo, instant bargain shopping.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Only one problem: the cheapest Northface Redpoint jacket was out of stock. And the next was nearly full price. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">This almost took the fun out of shopping. \u00a0I say almost, because I just saw this cartoon in the New Yorker. It&#8217;s the best:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DontWant.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-606\" title=\"Don'tWant\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DontWant.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"464\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DontWant.jpg 702w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/DontWant-300x198.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">My second favorite New Yorker cartoon. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I dedicate this cartoon to my long-suffering son-in-law, Ted:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Decor.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-607\" title=\"Decor\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Decor.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"680\" height=\"570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Decor.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/Decor-300x251.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I bet my daughter won&#8217;t speak to me for a week after this. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton4.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-126\" title=\"HarryNewton\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton4.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"95\" height=\"162\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Harry Newton, who knows his daughter <strong>will <\/strong>speak to him. She won&#8217;t read today&#8217;s column. She&#8217;s the only lawyer in the whole world still working. And boy, is she working. Try 24\/7. Of course, there&#8217;s a reason. She&#8217;s bloody talented. Takes after her mother who was &#8212; dig this &#8212; dux of her high school. A fact she concealed until long after we had children. Michael found it out as he delved into our totally fascinating (??) family history. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rollover with a vengeance. Remember my columns in January recommending you get out of equities? Look what&#8217;s happened since: Not a pretty picture. But my recommendations &#8212; DOG, PSQ and SH have done handsomely. Thank you very much. Have Comfort. You&#8217;re not an idiot. Harvard Business School&#8217;s endowment lost 30% in the year to June [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}