{"id":60360,"date":"2023-04-11T09:44:06","date_gmt":"2023-04-11T13:44:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=60360"},"modified":"2023-04-11T09:44:06","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T13:44:06","slug":"todays-no-brainer-5-03-on-3-month-treasuries-the-certainty-of-depressing-charts-well-see","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=60360","title":{"rendered":"Today&#8217;s No-Brainer &#8212; 5.03% on 3-month treasuries. The &#8220;certainty&#8221; of depressing charts. We&#8217;ll see"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Blue sky. 70 degrees. Tiny buds. But supremely energizing for my increasingly longer walks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60385\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Blue-Sky-April-10-2023.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"237\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Energy is wonderful as it returns, to counter (deal with) the uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There&#8217;s a even better counter:\u00a0The three-month treasury is now over 5% &#8212; in fact 5.03%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#8217;s an incredible rate. Whatever happens &#8212; another black swan event, hell or high water &#8212; we know we get 5.03% on our money &#8212; guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#8217;s one thing. The other is what&#8217;s happening to crypto. &#8220;Currencies&#8221; like bitcoin and ethereum are gaining strongly. See below. They&#8217;re going up without me. I suspect they&#8217;re rising because of the uncertainty of the stockmarket. Here&#8217;s the S&amp;P this year. Not one for the fainthearted (like me).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/SPYTD.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"525\" height=\"317\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60397\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/ethereum.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Where goes the economy? The &#8220;BIG thing we know is that it&#8217;s slowing down. The latest jobs report (for March) showed the weakest gain since December 2020 &#8212; but still a robust 236,000 job gains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The guys who love charts are having a ball. They&#8217;re eyeing charts showing an upcoming recession:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60391\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/yield-curve.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"426\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Same chart drawn differently. Recessions are the grey bars. This one tells the &#8220;story&#8221; a bit better.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60393\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Probability-of-Recession.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"421\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Probability-of-Recession.jpg 780w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Probability-of-Recession-768x415.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My biggest recent gainers have been GOOGL, LMT, PXD,\u00a0 AAPL, NVDA and META. I&#8217;m hanging on, not buying more.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Soon, my favorite real estate syndicators will find great bargains in what&#8217;s called &#8220;distress&#8221; properties &#8212; where their rising mortgage rate payments are eating up the cash flow and more.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For now, I do like 5.03%<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Your precious email address<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Never anyone our email address for a 15% discount you will never use.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ We all know there are places we can never unsubscribe from. Political places are the worst.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I receive five to ten emails a day from Donald J. Trump. I once gave him $1 to get on his lists. They&#8217;re clearly the best written political money beggings ever. I do wish I could get off his list.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Health stuff, endless<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Friends keep falling on the last step, going down.<\/p>\n<p>Friends keep falling off the curb.<\/p>\n<p>Friends keep being hit by motorized messenger bicycles.<\/p>\n<p>Look both ways twice. Slow down. You don&#8217;t need to move so fast.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>More tech stuff<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">+ An external wireless mouse makes a laptop fly.\u00a0 My favorite is the $24 wireless Logitech M510. The little thingee on the right is the dongle that slides into the USB on your laptop or USB hub.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60365\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Logitech-M510.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"235\" height=\"288\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>This is for real. I checked it.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60380\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/FBI-Denver.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"195\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Am I glad I didn&#8217;t invest in Turkey<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Instead of raising interest (as everyone else is doing) dictator Erdogan dropped them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is what happened to Turkey&#8217;s currency as a result. It plummeted, seriously hurting Turkey&#8217;s economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60370\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Turkish-Lire-Plummets.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"325\" height=\"338\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For the Economist piece, click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2023\/03\/26\/ahead-of-a-critical-election-turkeys-economy-is-running-on-borrowed-time\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I was a cub reporter<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I visited 35 countries with pen, paper and typewriter. But today? Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Lebanon, Myanmar (Burma), Afghanistan, and now Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I see a younger Harry as the Wall Street Journal reporter\u00a0Evan Gershkovich jailed by Putin on B.S. charges, to be used as a pawn in a prisoner exchange. While he rots in a Russian prison.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The <em>New Yorker<\/em> has done an excellent piece,\u00a0<em>How Putin Criminalized Journalism in Russia.\u00a0<\/em>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/our-columnists\/how-putin-criminalized-journalism-in-russia?utm_source=nl&amp;utm_brand=tny&amp;utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_040723&amp;utm_campaign=aud-dev&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=tny_daily_digest&amp;bxid=5bd66d4b2ddf9c619437e456&amp;cndid=11480355&amp;hasha=a7b5dabab4eec0514302836799f095f9&amp;hashb=c9efe9959ad3cee666463fec6c647f2b82aa5bb1&amp;hashc=0465d98940bffacb8d975bc848f564906619fb730495a9cac60c900c1cef9aa6&amp;esrc=Auto_Subs&amp;mbid=CRMNYR062419\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I cry for Evan. I wish I could do something, except to warn my readers to keep well away from the countries I mention above. Don&#8217;t visit. Don&#8217;t even think about visiting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Susan and I loved AIR, the movie<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s the true story of how Nike signed up Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player of all time<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FOhhGFCsGrY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen title=\"Air - Official Trailer (2023) Ben Affleck, Matt Damon\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I didn&#8217;t create this.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But it is funny.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60367\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/Trump-Tower.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I&#8217;m hooked on Federer videos<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/CSfFC37bU44?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen title=\"The Day Roger Federer Turned a Tennis Match into an Art Lesson! (Even Ball Kids Had Fun!)\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>\u00a0I did a couple of rafting trips with Michael<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But never one like this. Enjoy. It&#8217;s short and funny.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60377\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rafting.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"333\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/Cq3JPzWr925\/?igshid=ZGY5ODdmOGM=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><b>Wonderful nonsense<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-60383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/love-tofu-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"296\" height=\"360\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Happy belated Easter<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-60384\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/easter-egg.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"290\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;ve been reading too much on Russia and China. I have found my new subscription to <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em> magazine to be absolutely engrossing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Don&#8217;t forget the 5.03% on treasuries. Even if rates go higher &#8212; there&#8217;s definitely another 0.25 rate hike coming on May 3 &#8212; you&#8217;ll get all your 5.03% and your principal back in three months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">What they call a &#8220;no brainer.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">See you soon. &#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Blue sky. 70 degrees. Tiny buds. But supremely energizing for my increasingly longer walks. Energy is wonderful as it returns, to counter (deal with) the uncertainty. There&#8217;s a even better counter:\u00a0The three-month treasury is now over 5% &#8212; in fact 5.03%. That&#8217;s an incredible rate. Whatever happens &#8212; another black swan event, hell or high [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60360"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60398,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60360\/revisions\/60398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}