{"id":63655,"date":"2024-12-19T01:04:23","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T06:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=63655"},"modified":"2024-12-20T08:45:36","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T13:45:36","slug":"dont-abandon-the-date-who-brought-you-to-the-dance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=63655","title":{"rendered":"Don’t abandon the date who brought you to the dance"},"content":{"rendered":"

I know what happened yesterday \u2013 Wednesday December 18. <\/span><\/p>\n

The market crashed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Here’s the last two days. The chart looks more dramatic that way. All three — Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I think I know what happened. The market took umbrage at the Fed saying it was only going to drop interest rates twice<\/strong> in 2025 \u2013 not the four<\/strong> times that people had believed from previous Fed intonings.<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019ll buy the peoples\u2019 disappointment. But not their \u201clogic.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

My main holdings are in The Magnificent Seven<\/em>, which are selling more and earning more \u2013 but not borrowing more \u2013 or less. In fact these guys are rolling in cash and don\u2019t borrow money. Interest rate drops may cost them a few shekels in interest. Bu won\u2019t cost them more (or less in borrowing). And won’t affect their burgeoning earnings.<\/span><\/p>\n

What they are doing is spending oodles on data centers crammed with Nvidia chips and smattered with a handful of their own chips which they produced for sundry half-crazy ideas \u2013 like weaning themselves off Nvidia, or making themselves something \u201cspecial\u201d that would work in some special (loosely defined) way for them.<\/span><\/p>\n

The whole thing wreaks of equal parts fear and fantasy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe the fear\/fantasy scenario also freaked out the hedge funds who dumped huge holdings? Maybe the hedgies feared for the next two weeks and figured they\u2019d made enough for their returns to look good for 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So sell. <\/span><\/p>\n

Report nice numbers for 2024. And take the family skiing or to the beach for 2024\u2019s remaining two weeks.<\/span><\/p>\n

I could do that, too. I\u2019m up nicely.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But then I\u2019d have cash, a big tax bill, and a question:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With all that cash, what do I do? <\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019d undoubtedly decide to buy back into the market \u2013 most likely the exact same stocks I own now. <\/span><\/p>\n

That will be good. The stocks will be cheaper.<\/span><\/p>\n

But will they be?<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve never been good at what they call \u201ctiming\u201d the market.<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, I suck at timing the market. If I sell, it goes up. If I sell it\u2019s guaranteed<\/strong> to go up. I have The Reverse Midas Touch<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

My learned friend has sage advice: Never dump the date who brought you to the dance.<\/em> The date, of course, was Nvidia. She\u2019s still handsome and appealing, though she probably won\u2019t grow as fast next year as she did this year. But who can?<\/span><\/p>\n

Meantime, everything commerce-wise is humming nicely along. Employment is strong. Business is strong. Tourism is booming. At least from what we saw in New York\u2019s Times Square last night.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

We took one family to the theater and to a meal at Joe Allens. I\u2019ve never seen the theaters so packed, the restaurants so crowded and the streets so brimming with tourists. We sat behind a Norwegian couple at \u2013 of all things \u2013 the Michael Jackson musical.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So, what will I do?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Absolutely nothing. Neither sell. Nor buy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In coming days, I will have two choices: Sit and pray. Or sit and ignore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I suspect I\u2019ll sit and be depressed, as I was yesterday big-time after the Fed put its big foot in its big mouth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe we\u2019ll get a bounce today? Maybe we won\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

I’ll be back — Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I know what happened yesterday \u2013 Wednesday December 18. The market crashed.\u00a0 Here’s the last two days. The chart looks more dramatic that way. All three — Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500. I think I know what happened. The market took umbrage at the Fed saying it was only going to drop interest rates twice […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63655"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63655\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63660,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63655\/revisions\/63660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}