{"id":63851,"date":"2025-01-27T15:27:38","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T20:27:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=63851"},"modified":"2025-01-27T15:27:38","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T20:27:38","slug":"big-red-ai-swan-buy-todays-dip-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=63851","title":{"rendered":"Big Red AI Swan.  Buy today\u2019s dip. Part Two."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For those of us NOT enjoying our day in the stockmarket, please play this:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Taylor Swift - Shake It Off\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nfWlot6h_JM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We play <em>Shake It Off<\/em> when we lose a point, a game, a set&#8230; or do something really stupid in tennis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is Nvidia yesterday and today. Today it&#8217;s down\u00a0 a whopping 18%:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-63855\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/NVDIA-TWo-DAys.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"648\" height=\"393\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Points I have learned since I wrote Part One earlier today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">+ From PC Mag:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;Why has Nvidia&#8217;s stock price tumbled, even though DeepSeek is still using its (Nvidia&#8217;s) chips? Because its AI model does more with less.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;US tech companies are now coming under fire for a potentially bloated approach to AI development, requiring more and more chips, while being less efficient with them than DeepSeek appears to be.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In short, DeepSeek is a high performing AI engine for an ultra-low price.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can down download its code and use it for free (that&#8217;s called open source).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But it comes from China.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Do you want Chinese software touching your company&#8217;s financials?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">DeepSeek, like TikTok, is obliged to share all its data with the Chinese government.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have become\u00a0 increasingly impressed (?) with the Chinese government&#8217;s surveillance, intrusion and data sabotage abilities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is not the world of December 2001 when we invited China in and they joined the World Trade Organization (the WTO).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is the world of President XI, a paranoid nutcase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have an &#8220;inviolate&#8221; 15% rule. When the stock falls 15%, I dump it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I can&#8217;t make that decision right now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t understand enough.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I think this panic may be overblown.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I pray this is overblown.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meantime, I note that several of my stocks &#8212; Apple, Meta, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly and Costco are actually up today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Apple is up, despite the fact that a few days ago, I assessed its immediate future as dismal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am such a brilliant analyst.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Despite today&#8217;s crash, I&#8217;m still up 70% on Nvidia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I played tennis well this morning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I will sleep well this evening.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><strong>Part One, earlier today<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">China has DeepSeek. It\u2019s better and cheaper to make. It\u2019s also open source and free, for now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hence it will kill the market for Nvidia chips.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia\u2019s stock will fall through the floor today, maybe 14%. So will all its customers \u2013 Google, Microsoft, Meta \u2013 the erstwhile Magnificent Seven.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Panic is Wall Street\u2019s middle name.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today will be Mega Panic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But&#8230;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI\u2019s endearing long-term advantages are not going away because someone in China has figured a way to do AI cheaper.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hello. That\u2019s been the name of the game in computing since Intel introduced the first microprocessor in 1971 with 2,300 transistors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia&#8217;s latest Blackwell chip has 208 billion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This week\u2019s <em>Economist<\/em> has a big piece:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\"><em>Uncomfortably close<br \/>\n<\/em><strong>Why Chinese AI has stunned the world<br \/>\n<\/strong>DeepSeek\u2019s models are much cheaper and almost as good as American rivals<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can read it <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/briefing\/2025\/01\/23\/chinas-ai-industry-has-almost-caught-up-with-americas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>: \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;ll post more today. I did. It&#8217;s above. &#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For those of us NOT enjoying our day in the stockmarket, please play this: We play Shake It Off when we lose a point, a game, a set&#8230; or do something really stupid in tennis. This is Nvidia yesterday and today. Today it&#8217;s down\u00a0 a whopping 18%: Points I have learned since I wrote Part [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63851"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63851\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63861,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63851\/revisions\/63861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}