{"id":64028,"date":"2025-02-28T00:02:57","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T05:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=64028"},"modified":"2025-02-28T00:02:57","modified_gmt":"2025-02-28T05:02:57","slug":"my-worst-day-ever-gruesome-thoughts-on-what-might-be-coming-next-timing-the-market-is-not-my-forte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=64028","title":{"rendered":"My worst day ever. Gruesome thoughts on what might be coming next. Timing the market is not my forte"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nvidia’s earnings were stunning. Ditto for its forecast of endless demand, and successful Blackwell demand and delivery.<\/p>\n

But, today, the day after the stock took a humongous 8.5% dive…. I’m mulling.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It was my worst day — because Nvidia is my largest holding. And I was super-optimistic. I still am. Friends are sitting, ready to pounce and buy more — if it drops further. Which it probably will.<\/p>\n

Many of my friends are depressed. Here’s one comment:<\/p>\n

Wall Street geniuses supported the senile old geezer because they thought he was “pro-business” and “pro-stock market”.<\/p>\n

But it turns out his reign is just about layoffs, new taxes (he calls `em tariffs), self-enrichment (e.g. $TRUMP coin nd Melania’s $40 million book deal) and more regulation. The only thing missing is mass deportation of construction, healthcare, and farm workers. Coming soon.<\/p>\n

The market is beginning to understand that this administration is toxic for stocks. He and the nazi-musk have turned the Biden bull market into the Trump Dump.<\/p>\n

Here’s another:<\/p>\n

Why do I think a recession will start soon:
\n1. He is attacking our long term best friends (the aware consumers will likely think twice before supporting US brands over local brands when it’s possible).
\n2. He’s creating uncertainty which is making consumers (like myself ) cut back everywhere we can.
\n3. Uncertainty also impacts corporations (even more quickly than consumers). CEOs MUST be sitting in their board rooms debating a more conservative capital and hiring plan.
\n4. Federal workers are also probably cutting back their spending (in case they get cut). State level workers are probably also concerned.
\n5. Airline crashes. We suddenly went from many years without a crash to several high profile incidents. Even an avid traveler like myself suddenly has wondered about taking so many trips. Combine that with less travelers from the countries Trump has turned on (Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc) that equals lower demand
\n6. Real estate correction (Look what’s happening or starting to happen in Florida and parts of Texas). If that worsens or spreads -> banks will likely cut back on financing.
\n7. AI blow back -> I believe AI will be an amazing accelerant to corporate efficiency but it’s likely to have its “disappointing moment” when corporate investments don’t appear to be impacting the bottom line. Imagine how NVDA stock would react if GOOG and META cut their planned spending by 15% (or more?). A stock correction is likely to feed into consumer behavior more this time than in 2022 because the economy is in a slower place.<\/p>\n

Even if tariffs never actually get started, the damage to the psyche is done. It’ll take a while before Canadians and Western Europeans forgive us for turning on them.<\/p>\n

Many friends are emailing me the obvious “Cash is King.<\/strong>“<\/p>\n

Many friends have already lightened up on their stock portfolios. They’re actively looking for new excitements. European defense stocks (I kid you not) are beginning to look appealing.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile I’m having fun in Sydney, Australia with jet lag, an upset tummy and soreness from dental surgery I had just before I left the U.S.<\/p>\n

Sydney is an eminently gorgeous place. I took this photo last night after the opera, La Traviata, at the Opera House:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sydney is an oasis of technology startups, and immense wealth — there are now over 140 Australian billionaires.<\/p>\n

Some of them live in these places:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The really enormous homes, however, are reserved for Chinese billionaires. I’m kidding, of course. But the Chinese seem to have heaps of money. (Australian expression). And they buy very large houses.<\/p>\n

Australia is a gorgeous place to visit. The weather is superb. The produce — mangoes, tuna, salmon — is to die for. Here are some happy diners at the Opera House last night enjoying their evening view of the Harbour Bridge, which many, I’m guessing, had climbed earlier that day — a fun tourist trap run by one of Australia’s many creative entrepreneurs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So far, I haven’t seen a single koala or kangaroo. I’m going Taronga Park Zoo tomorrow.\u00a0 It’s one of the best zoos in the world.<\/p>\n

When I was young, I used to work there, taking pictures of American tourists with their favorite Australian animal — the koala. I would be in the koala cage, grab one and bring him over to the tourists. The koalas didn’t like being manhandled for tourists. To show their displeasure, they would pee on me. I won’t describe the smell.<\/p>\n

I’m sticking with Nvidia — until I find something more compelling.<\/p>\n

I don’t like “timing” the market. I’ve always lost.<\/p>\n

I’m looking for alternatives. Trust me. I’m looking.<\/p>\n

Your ideas? —Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nvidia’s earnings were stunning. Ditto for its forecast of endless demand, and successful Blackwell demand and delivery. But, today, the day after the stock took a humongous 8.5% dive…. I’m mulling. It was my worst day — because Nvidia is my largest holding. And I was super-optimistic. I still am. Friends are sitting, ready to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64028"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64039,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64028\/revisions\/64039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}