{"id":64219,"date":"2025-04-08T16:31:42","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T20:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=64219"},"modified":"2025-04-09T00:19:01","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T04:19:01","slug":"were-already-in-a-recession-tariff-on-china-goes-to-a-jaw-dropping-104-at-midnight-tonight-this-is-not-the-time-to-own-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=64219","title":{"rendered":"We&#8217;re already in a recession. Tariff on China goes to a jaw-dropping 104% at midnight tonight. This is not the time to own stocks."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From T<em>he Wall Street Journal,<\/em> yesterday:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-64221\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Larry-Fink.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"754\" height=\"83\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-64223\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Larry-Fink-2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"304\" \/><br \/>\n<em>BlackRock CEO Larry Fink spoke at the Economic Club of New York Monday. (Spencer Platt\/Getty Images)<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"e141zjhk1 css-xm7a9b-ParagraphContainer\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\">\n<p class=\"e141zjhk0 css-18f125c-FormattedText\">The world&#8217;s biggest investor thinks an economic slowdown is already here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,&#8221; BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday afternoon at an Economic Club of New York luncheon.<\/p>\n<div class=\"e141zjhk1 css-xm7a9b-ParagraphContainer\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\">\n<p class=\"e141zjhk0 css-18f125c-FormattedText\">The head of the asset-management giant said that more cautious consumer behavior has been showing up in forward airline bookings and other indicators for weeks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"e141zjhk1 css-121lfs3-ParagraphContainer\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<p class=\"e141zjhk0 css-18f125c-FormattedText\" style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">&#8220;We&#8217;re seeing various sectors in a real downturn,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"e141zjhk0 css-18f125c-FormattedText\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Earnings season starts in days.<\/span> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"e141zjhk0 css-18f125c-FormattedText\">Many CEOs usually provide earnings guidance &#8212; how things are going to be.<\/p>\n<p>Who can make any sort of guidance in today&#8217;s tariffed world?<\/p>\n<p>Hence coming months for stocks are not going to be pretty &#8212; with one caveat &#8212; if Trump listens to Musk and his billionaire contributors and reverses the tariffs &#8212; now up to over 100% for China. At midnight tonight, tariffs on stuff from China go to 104%.<\/p>\n<p>This is <strong>not<\/strong> the time to be in stocks.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m personally now down to 0% stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Zero percent stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Now watch this video. It&#8217;s brilliant.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Jimmy Kimmel on the market meltdown etc.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Trump\u2019s Tariffs Murder Wall Street, Dodgers Go to The White House &amp; Americans March Against Donald\" width=\"690\" height=\"388\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/pEH7kV2_jBA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>From the Atlantic Magazine:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-64228\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Atlantic-Recession.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"169\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW ArticleParagraph_dropcap__uIVzg\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\" data-flatplan-dropcap=\"true\">L<span class=\"smallcaps\">ast month<\/span>, Nicholas Gilbert received a delivery of grain for the 1,400 cows he tends at his dairy farm in Potsdam, New York, 20 miles from the Ontario border. The feed came with a surprise tariff of $2,200 tacked on. \u201cWe have small margins,\u201d he told me. \u201cI had a contracted price on that grain delivered to my barn. It was supposed to be so much per ton. And they added that tariff right on top because it comes from a Canadian feed mill.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Gilbert cannot increase the price of the milk he sells, which is set by the local co-op. He cannot feed his cows less food. He cannot buy feed from another supplier; there aren\u2019t any nearby, and getting it from farther away would be more expensive. When he got the delivery, he stared at the tariff for a while. Shouldn\u2019t his Canadian supplier have been responsible for paying it? \u201cI\u2019m not even sure it\u2019s legal! We contracted for the price on delivery! If your price of fuel goes up or your truck breaks down, that\u2019s not my problem! That\u2019s what the contract\u2019s for.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">But the tariff was legal, and it was Gilbert\u2019s responsibility. The dairy farmer is one of tens of thousands of American business owners caught in a spiraling trade war, and lives in one area of the United States that might already be tipping into a recession because of it. Businesses near the Canadian border are particularly vulnerable to the rising costs and falling revenue caused by tariffs, and are delaying projects, holding off on hiring, raising prices, letting workers go, or wondering how they are going to keep feeding their cows as a result.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">President Donald Trump kicked off his long-promised trade war by applying levies to steel, aluminum, and goods from China, Canada, and Mexico soon after he took office\u2014insisting, incorrectly, that foreign companies would pay the tariffs and that American growth would surge. On Wednesday, he unleashed a global shock-and-awe campaign, announcing tariffs on every American trading partner.<\/p>\n<p id=\"injected-recirculation-link-0\" class=\"ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-view-action=\"view link - injected link - item 1\" data-event-element=\"injected link\" data-event-position=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/ideas\/archive\/2025\/03\/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico\/681912\/\">Rog\u00e9 Karma: Trump\u2019s most inexplicable decision yet<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">The measures are meant to counter foreign countries\u2019 tariffs and trade barriers, Trump said. But the numbers announced have nothing to do with such policies, where they even exist. The White House set a minimum 10 percent levy on imports from around the world, and imposed higher rates on imports from more than 60 countries, territories, and trading blocs. The administration appears to have derived those higher rates by dividing the value of the country\u2019s bilateral trade deficit with the United States by the value of its exports to the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">The tariffs are capricious, haphazard, and weird. The Trump administration took into account only trade in goods, not services. It slapped tariffs on countries with long-standing free-trade agreements with Washington, including Australia, South Korea, Israel, Panama, Singapore, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic. It put tariffs on countries with a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/countries-regions\/southeast-asia-pacific\/australia\" data-event-element=\"inline link\">trade surplus<\/a>\u00a0with the United States. It implemented tariffs on remote,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/foreign-trade\/balance\/c6029.html\" data-event-element=\"inline link\">uninhabited islands<\/a>. It implemented tariffs on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/installations.militaryonesource.mil\/in-depth-overview\/navy-support-facility-diego-garcia\" data-event-element=\"inline link\">a territory<\/a>\u00a0occupied predominantly by American and British soldiers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">The nonsensical policy will nevertheless have real effects. American consumer goods will get more expensive, with the average family\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/research\/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april\" data-event-element=\"inline link\">paying an<\/a>\u00a0estimated $3,800 more a year for groceries, cars, clothing, furniture, and everything else if the tariff rates remain this high. Thousands of American firms, mostly small businesses, will go under. The United States risks collapsing into an astonishing voluntary recession, caused solely by a few powerful ideologues\u2019 erroneous beliefs about trade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">If you want to understand where the American economy is heading, head to the border.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW ArticleParagraph_dropcap__uIVzg\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\" data-flatplan-dropcap=\"true\">F<span class=\"smallcaps\">rom Bellingham, Washington, to Calais, Maine<\/span>, the United States has dozens of communities that are not so much linked to Canada\u2019s economy as interwoven with it. Gas stations in these places rely on business from Canadian commuters. Ski resorts and water parks rely on Canadian tourists. Manufacturing firms rely on Canadian industrial inputs. Farms rely on Canadian feed. Hotels rely on Canadian business conferences.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Contrary to Trump\u2019s pronouncements, tariffs are paid by domestic importers, not foreign exporters. Most companies pass the cost increase on to consumers. Others, like Adon Farms, cannot. \u201cWe\u2019re taking that right on the chin,\u201d Gilbert told me, explaining that he would have to pay tariffs on the fertilizer and farm equipment he buys too. \u201cWe\u2019re not like other businesses,\u201d he told me. \u201cWe\u2019re very slow moving. I can\u2019t pivot at all.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Manufacturing firms and construction companies near the border face the same quandaries as the costs of steel, aluminum, lumber, and machine parts rise. These firms can\u2019t quickly relocate their operations or find new suppliers either. \u201cWe surveyed 40 of our manufacturing companies in the region,\u201d Garry Douglas, of New York\u2019s North Country Chamber of Commerce, told me. \u201cOne sources raw materials from Canada and is looking at a $16 million cost increase to their U.S. operation. Another company is a paper mill that sources wood pulp from Canada. It\u2019s the one source of the type of wood they need.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">At the same time as it is raising costs for border businesses, Trump\u2019s quixotic trade war with Canada is depressing revenue for these businesses too. Dan Kelleher runs a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roostadk.com\/\" data-event-element=\"inline link\">tourism-promotion agency<\/a>\u00a0in the Adirondacks. \u201cWe had a terrific January in terms of overall visitation,\u201d he told me. \u201cOur numbers were up 24 percent over the five-year average. And then February came.\u201d The president kept referring to Canada as the \u201c51st state,\u201d and hit the United States\u2019 closest ally with a 25 percent tariff. Spending on lodging dropped 4 percent in February, Kelleher told me, with retailers reporting a 20 percent decline in sales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">\u201cWe have a lot of cross-border events, particularly hockey tournaments,\u201d Kelleher said. \u201cThe teams are locked in to come play, but when they come, they\u2019re not spending any money here.\u201d He worried about the summer tourist season, and more so about the relationship between residents of the Adirondacks and their neighbors across the border. \u201cOur Canadian friends\u2014they\u2019re upset, they\u2019re hurt, they\u2019re betrayed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Ron Kurnik is a dual citizen who lives in Canada and commutes across the border to run Superior Coffee Roasting, a caf\u00e9 and coffee distributor in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan. \u201cOne of our premier labels is an espresso blend, which I aptly termed\u00a0<i>the friendly neighbors<\/i>,\u201d he told me. \u201cWe spell it both ways on the label,\u00a0<i>neighbors\u00a0<\/i>and\u00a0<i>neighbours<\/i>. It\u2019s been the centerpiece of our business, and our relationship with the residents of this area.\u201d<\/p>\n<p id=\"injected-recirculation-link-2\" class=\"ArticleRelatedContentLink_root__VYc9V\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-view-action=\"view link - injected link - item 3\" data-event-element=\"injected link\" data-event-position=\"3\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/ideas\/archive\/2025\/04\/trump-tariff-theory-reality\/682279\/\">Rog\u00e9 Karma: Trump\u2019s tariffs are designed to backfire<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Kurnik imports his coffee beans from Mexico and his coffee bags from China; both are more expensive, thanks to Trump\u2019s levies. \u201cWith the added tax, we\u2019re currently underwater on distribution,\u201d he told me. With fewer Canadians crossing the Saint Marys River, sales at his caf\u00e9 have dropped too. Superior Coffee Roasting has a \u201cbit of a war chest,\u201d in the form of profits from last year, Kurnik said. \u201cThat will probably, probably, get us through this year.\u201d But he\u2019s cut back on employee hours and laid one person off. \u201cI\u2019m trying to hold the line and not make too many big, consequential decisions,\u201d he said. \u201cIf these things continue for six, eight months or beyond, it\u2019s going to get bad.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Residents of border towns see their shopping malls and greasy spoons half empty. They read stories in the local paper about rising construction costs and Canadians detained at border crossings. They notice the lack of hiring signs. They hear about the trade war on the evening news. As a result, many are reducing their own spending in expectation of a downturn: putting off home repairs, delaying the purchase of a new car, canceling vacations, eating in instead of ordering out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">\u201cIt is definitely having a rippling effect, and it\u2019s been immediate,\u201d says Michael Cashman, the supervisor of the town of Plattsburgh, New York, 20 minutes south of the border. \u201cThese may seem like small trade restrictions in Washington. But they\u2019re devastating for our region.\u201d He told me he was \u201cdeeply concerned\u201d about sales-tax revenue dropping. Plattsburgh is preparing to pull back on public spending \u201cuntil there is more clarity in the forecast.\u201d Of course, the town cutting its budget would worsen the downturn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">What is happening in Plattsburgh and Sault Ste. Marie is happening in rural Nebraska, Kentucky\u2019s bourbon country, and Las Vegas too\u2014in every community that relies on foreign tourists, foreign imports, foreign exports, and cross-border traffic. Now, Trump\u2019s new policies have put the whole country at risk. I surveyed my inbox the morning after the president\u2019s Liberation Day announcement, reading market analysts\u2019 notes: a \u201cself-inflicted economic catastrophe,\u201d a \u201clarge headwind,\u201d a \u201ctransformed outlook,\u201d \u201cunconditionally bad,\u201d an \u201cextended period of volatility,\u201d a \u201chistoric shift,\u201d \u201cmadness.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"ArticleParagraph_root__4mszW\" style=\"padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">In Michigan\u2019s Upper Peninsula, Kurnik was penciling out numbers on Wednesday\u2014when retailers might raise prices for a bag of beans, how much to slow down production\u2014while Trump was preparing for his speech in the Rose Garden. \u201cWe can\u2019t operate a business flying by the seat of our pants,\u201d he told me. \u201cThe administration can organize itself in that fashion. But how do you realistically expect me to follow suit?\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Own Treasuries. Play Tennis. Watch Netflix. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Learn a new skill. Python? Read a good book.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Visit the grandkids.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">None of this makes any sense &#8212; from the measles deaths to destroying our nation&#8217;s medical research, to losing our Canadian and European friends, to putting tariffs on places inhabited by only penguins.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Best of all, we didn&#8217;t put any tariffs on Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">In 2024, the United States imported $3 billion of goods from Russia. \u00a0The main imports from Russia to the US were fertilizers, pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, inorganic chemicals and precious metal compound.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Go figure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">American ingenuity still reigns:<\/p>\n<p data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">His startup went broke.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">He started a new business: He helps you close your busted business. It&#8217;s called SimpleClosure, viz:<\/p>\n<p data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-64236\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/simple-closure.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"194\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">Click <a href=\"https:\/\/simpleclosure.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">As Cramer says, &#8220;<em>There&#8217;s always a bull market. And I&#8217;m here to find it for you<\/em>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">You&#8217;re welcome &#8212; <em>Harry Newton<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-flatplan-paragraph=\"true\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From The Wall Street Journal, yesterday: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink spoke at the Economic Club of New York Monday. (Spencer Platt\/Getty Images) The world&#8217;s biggest investor thinks an economic slowdown is already here. &#8220;Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,&#8221; BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday afternoon [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64219"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64239,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64219\/revisions\/64239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}