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\nTo read it, click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n
I can’t reproduce the paper in this blog. It’s too long. I can give you some excerpts that caught my eye:<\/p>\n
+ Get your financial house in order. I’m not a financial advisor, and I’m not trying to scare you into anything drastic. But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago. Build up savings if you can. Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed. Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in. Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.<\/p>\n
+ Rethink what you’re telling your kids. The standard playbook: get good grades, go to a good college, land a stable professional job. It points directly at the roles that are most exposed. I’m not saying education doesn’t matter. But the thing that will matter most for the next generation is learning how to work with these tools, and pursuing things they’re genuinely passionate about. Nobody knows exactly what the job market looks like in ten years. But the people most likely to thrive are the ones who are deeply curious, adaptable, and effective at using AI to do things they actually care about. Teach your kids to be builders and learners, not to optimize for a career path that might not exist by the time they graduate.<\/p>\n
+ Your dreams just got a lot closer. I’ve spent most of this section talking about threats, so let me talk about the other side, because it’s just as real. If you’ve ever wanted to build something but didn’t have the technical skills or the money to hire someone, that barrier is largely gone. You can describe an app to AI and have a working version in an hour. I’m not exaggerating. I do this regularly. If you’ve always wanted to write a book but couldn’t find the time or struggled with the writing, you can work with AI to get it done. Want to learn a new skill? The best tutor in the world is now available to anyone for $20 a month… one that’s infinitely patient, available 24\/7, and can explain anything at whatever level you need. Knowledge is essentially free now. The tools to build things are extremely cheap now. Whatever you’ve been putting off because it felt too hard or too expensive or too far outside your expertise: try it. Pursue the things you’re passionate about. You never know where they’ll lead. And in a world where the old career paths are getting disrupted, the person who spent a year building something they love might end up better positioned than the person who spent that year clinging to a job description.<\/p>\n
+ Dario Amodei (co-founder and CEO of Anthropic), who is probably the most safety-focused CEO in the AI industry, has publicly predicted that AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years. And many people in the industry think he’s being conservative. Given what the latest models can do, the capability for massive disruption could be here by the end of this year. It’ll take some time to ripple through the economy, but the underlying ability is arriving now.<\/p>\n
+ This is different from every previous wave of automation, and I need you to understand why. AI isn’t replacing one specific skill. It’s a general substitute for cognitive work. It gets better at everything simultaneously. When factories automated, a displaced worker could retrain as an office worker. When the internet disrupted retail, workers moved into logistics or services. But AI doesn’t leave a convenient gap to move into. Whatever you retrain for, it’s improving at that too.<\/p>\n
The paper actually begins:<\/p>\n
The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from “helpful tool” to “does my job better than I do”, is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I’ve seen in just the last couple of months, I think “less” is more likely.<\/p>\n
“But I tried AI and it wasn’t that good”<\/p>\n
I hear this constantly. I understand it, because it used to be true.<\/p>\n
If you tried ChatGPT in 2023 or early 2024 and thought “this makes stuff up” or “this isn’t that impressive”, you were right. Those early versions were genuinely limited. They hallucinated. They confidently said things that were nonsense.<\/p>\n
That was two years ago. In AI time, that is ancient history.<\/p>\n
To read the full article, click here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Stop panicking about AI. Start preparing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n In its latest issue, The Economist<\/a> warned to “Stop panicking about AI. Start preparing. There is time to adapt and it can be used.”<\/em><\/p>\n Here’s that piece in full:<\/p>\n S<\/span>olving fiendish<\/small>\u00a0maths problems, making complex medical diagnoses, conjuring up new software in moments: the feats of generative\u00a0AI<\/small>\u00a0get more impressive by the day. But anxiety about its social consequences is mounting, too. Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the\u00a0imf<\/small>, has warned of a job-crushing \u201ctsunami\u201d. Sir Demis Hassabis, boss of Google DeepMind, a leading\u00a0ai<\/small>\u00a0lab, says he would support a slowing of innovation to allow society to adapt. Jamie Dimon, high priest of American finance, says governments should ban lay-offs if it \u201csaves society\u201d. The scene seems set for wrenching upheaval.<\/p>\n The course of\u00a0AI\u00a0<\/small>is uncertain, obviously. Yet the latest series of Boss Class, our podcast on management, shows that there are good reasons to think society has more scope to adapt than these luminaries suggest. It takes time for a new technology to diffuse from the cutting-edge to the office cubicle. Firms and governments should use the breathing space to help those most at risk of being displaced.<\/p>\n So far labour markets seem unruffled. Service jobs are most exposed to generative\u00a0ai<\/small>, yet in America the number of white-collar jobs has gone up by 3m since ChatGPT<\/small>\u00a0was launched, while blue-collar jobs have stayed flat. Employment has risen even in areas that have been keen adopters, such as coding.<\/p>\n One reason for the slow economic impact is the technology\u2019s \u201cjagged frontier\u201d: it excels at some tasks but then confidently spouts nonsense, or struggles to count the number of \u201cr\u201ds in \u201cstrawberry\u201d. This unpredictability means companies and workers need to spend time working out where to apply.<\/p>\n Moreover, business processes don\u2019t change overnight. Electricity was first harnessed commercially in the 1880s, but took 40-50 years to generate productivity gains on factory floors. Plants had to be redesigned and workflows rethought. This time, too, companies must think about how to encourage workers to use\u00a0ai<\/small>, how to mitigate the problems it poses, and how to\u00a0apply it successfully<\/a>.<\/p>\n This friction should be good news for those worrying about the speed of technological change. Asking developers around the world to down tools, when a winning lead could confer gigantic commercial and geopolitical rewards, would be a fantasy. But precious time elapses between invention and diffusion, and this can be used to identify who is most exposed to the technology and to work out how to help them.<\/p>\n Many jobs require skills that are hard to automate, such as judgment or empathy.\u00a0AI<\/small>\u00a0tools could make these roles more productive, lucrative and even more enjoyable: think of a doctor liberated from paperwork. And new technology tends to create jobs; already there is a rise in\u00a0white-collar jobs<\/a>\u00a0that are so new they have no label in the statistics. Yet some roles also look dangerously exposed to automation. Much back-office work involves simple tasks and following a script. Young people in entry-level positions are often asked to crunch data, or summarise reports\u2014precisely the sort of things\u00a0ai<\/small>s excel at.<\/p>\n Helping these groups find new work is crucial, and not just because of the impact on the people themselves. The loss of factory jobs through globalisation and automation in the West helped spur the rise of populism. No government wants a youth revolt on its hands. A backlash would be a sure way to stymie the economic gains of\u00a0ai.<\/small><\/p>\n What to do? This time at least the disrupted are likely to be geographically dispersed: unlike factory work or mining, back-office and entry-level jobs are not concentrated in company towns. New opportunities should therefore be easier to find. But governments must also encourage movement by keeping labour markets flexible, rather than barring lay-offs as Mr Dimon suggests. Education will need an overhaul, to teach\u00a0AI\u00a0<\/small>and skills that complement it.<\/small><\/p>\n Companies, too, must prepare. To thrive they need not only to make the best use of\u00a0ai<\/small>, but also to find and nurture the best people to work with it. Some back-office workers will lose their jobs. But others with tacit knowledge of the business may be trained for new roles.<\/p>\n The biggest mistake would be to stop hiring young people altogether. That would not only choke off the pipeline for future talent, it would rob businesses of\u00a0AI\u00a0<\/small>natives<\/a>. Instead, companies should rethink the type of work they offer young people\u2014less grunt labour, more judgment and analysis; speedier rotations across the business so they gain insight that\u00a0ai<\/small>\u00a0cannot have; piloting new roles and trying new approaches.<\/p>\n Disruption and job losses will be unavoidable. Such is the nature of technological progress. But, despite\u00a0AI<\/small>\u2019s feats, there is still time to cushion the blow. It should not be wasted.\u00a0\u25a0<\/span><\/p>\n Investing in AI. Try for Picks and Shovels<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Wall Street has soured on the software suppliers, since, the theory goes, companies (aka clients) will do their own thing using the increasingly powerful AI tools.<\/p>\n The picks and shovels providers of the data center will see huge sales. There are many. My portfolio — right column on the blog –includes some. But they’re popping up all the time. GNRC exploded today. There’s CAT, GLW, GFS, MU, WDC, LSCC, VRT to SNDK.<\/p>\n
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