We\u2019ve been here before. Last time it was tariffs. And we recovered. We will again.<\/p>\n
This time it’s AI excesses.<\/p>\n
We’re spending too much. Capital investment is too high. AI income is too slow. And nobody wants a data center in their backyard.<\/p>\n
Many many years ago, as I was leaving Australia for business school in the U.S. many, my boss said<\/p>\n
“I‘d love the Americans — because, like me, they substitute enthusiasm for intelligence.”<\/em><\/p>\n That means I go with my gut.<\/p>\n Mostly it works. When it doesn’t, I re-assess.<\/p>\n That may mean dumping, writing it off or praying\u00a0 (also called “Don’t look at it.”<\/p>\n My father used to say that a man was rich if he could afford the lifestyle he wanted to live. I can still afford semi-overpriced coffee.<\/p>\n The AI downturn (including last week’s disasters) has knocked out half my gains in my heavily AI portfolio — especially Dell, Nvidia, Google, Micron, Amazon etc.<\/p>\n I’m afraid to do something dramatic — like big-time sell — because I did that last year (dumb me) and, for my brilliance, I was rewarded with a $4 million capital gain and a huge tax bill. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.<\/p>\n Gambling. Pure and Simple.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n + 79% of players lose their prediction bets on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, etc.<\/p>\n +\u00a090% to 95% of people lose their money on crypto.<\/p>\n +\u00a099% of people lose their money on lottery tickets.<\/p>\n North Korean hackers (correctly called thieves) stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the biggest crypto online trading company. Think Fidelity or\u00a0Schwab but for crypto.<\/p>\n Crypto is made-up arithmetic — with zero relation to any value — like shares of companies or the U.S. government (treasuries).<\/p>\n Zero value. Just marketing hype.<\/p>\n And you thought you had a problem<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n