{"id":6873,"date":"2011-04-15T09:02:36","date_gmt":"2011-04-15T13:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=6873"},"modified":"2011-04-15T09:38:59","modified_gmt":"2011-04-15T13:38:59","slug":"dumb-dumb-dumb-trust-your-instincts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=6873","title":{"rendered":"Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. Trust your instincts."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I looked at my Google yesterday. I had a bad feeling. I didn&#8217;t like the way it was trading. I didn&#8217;t like a chart I&#8217;d seen of a flat (i.e. non-growing) market share of the search business.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/GooglemarketShare.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6893\" title=\"GooglemarketShare\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/GooglemarketShare.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"610\" height=\"458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/GooglemarketShare.jpg 610w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/GooglemarketShare-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 610px) 100vw, 610px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I was about to dump it. Then I got distracted. Last night it reported earnings that disappointed Wall Street. Today Google will be down by 5% or 6%. And I&#8217;ll feel like a total idiot.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Much easier to sell and buy it back later. Heck this is not the bad old days, when it cost $500 to trade a handful of shares. Fidelity charges me $7.95 no matter how many.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meanwhile, I have a bad feeling about Apple. It&#8217;s been trading like shit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/AppleLikeShit.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6896\" title=\"AppleLikeShit\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/AppleLikeShit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"634\" height=\"253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/AppleLikeShit.jpg 634w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/AppleLikeShit-300x119.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 634px) 100vw, 634px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am super glad, however,\u00a0 I&#8217;ve kept everyone away from the big banks, like C and BAC and big tech stocks, like Cisco, Dell,, RIMM, Microsoftt, etc. My &#8220;stay away&#8221; recommendation still stands. Meantime, SGOL, BHP and DHR are doing well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Reading for this weekend: <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">There&#8217;s lots of it:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>+ Naming Culprits in the Financial Crisis. <\/strong>Click <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/04\/14\/business\/14crisis.html?_r=1&amp;scp=1&amp;sq=naming%20culprits%20in%20the%20financial%20crisis&amp;st=cse\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>+ <\/strong>The<strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/span>650-page report from the Senate, <strong>\u201cWall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse,\u201d <\/strong>Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/04\/14\/business\/14prosecute.html?_r=1&amp;ref=business&amp;pagewanted=all\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ <strong>Net Impact. One man\u2019s cyber-crusade against Russian corruption.<\/strong> From the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/reporting\/2011\/04\/04\/110404fa_fact_ioffe#ixzz1JavLvon6\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>New Yorker.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ <strong>In Financial Crisis, No Prosecutions of Top Figures.<\/strong> By GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE STORY of the<strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/04\/14\/business\/14prosecute.html?_r=1&amp;ref=business&amp;pagewanted=all\" target=\"_blank\">New York Times.<\/a> <\/strong>Excerpts:<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">It  is a question asked repeatedly across America: why, in the aftermath of  a financial mess that generated hundreds of billions in losses, have no  high-profile participants in the disaster been prosecuted? &#8230;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">In July 2008, the staff of the S.E.C. received a phone call from Scott G. Alvarez, general counsel at the Federal Reserve in Washington.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">The purpose: to discuss an S.E.C. investigation into improprieties by several of the nation\u2019s largest brokerage firms. Their actions had hammered thousands of investors holding the short-term investments known as auction-rate securities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">These investments carry interest rates that reset regularly, usually weekly, in auctions overseen by the brokerage firms that sell them. They were popular among investors because the interest rates they received were slightly higher than what they could earn elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">For years, companies like UBS and Goldman Sachs operated auctions of these securities, promoting them as highly liquid investments. But by mid-February 2008, as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spread, investors holding hundreds of billions of dollars of these securities could no longer cash them in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">As the S.E.C. investigated these events, several of its officials argued that the banks should make all investors whole on the securities, according to three people with knowledge of the negotiations but who were not authorized to speak publicly, because banks had marketed them as safe investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">But Mr. Alvarez suggested that the S.E.C. soften the proposed terms of the auction-rate settlements. His staff followed up with more calls to the S.E.C., cautioning that banks might run short on capital if they had to pay the many billions of dollars needed to make all auction-rate clients whole, the people briefed on the conversations said. The S.E.C. wound up requiring eight banks to pay back only individual investors. For institutional investors \u2014 like pension funds \u2014 that bought the securities, the S.E.C. told the banks to make only their \u201cbest efforts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: left;\">This shift eased the pain significantly at some of the nation\u2019s biggest banks. For Citigroup, the new terms meant it had to redeem $7 billion in the securities for individual investors \u2014 but it was off the hook for about $12 billion owned by institutions. &#8230;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Verizon easily delivers the fastest Internet speed.<\/strong><\/span> I have FiOS.\u00a0 Wired, it delivers a phenomenal:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/HarrysFIOSSpeeds.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6876\" title=\"HarrysFIOSSpeeds\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/HarrysFIOSSpeeds.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"294\" height=\"54\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wirelessly (i.e. over Wi-Fi), it delivers:<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/WirelessSpeed.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6877\" title=\"WirelessSpeed\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/WirelessSpeed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"308\" height=\"61\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/WirelessSpeed.jpg 308w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/WirelessSpeed-300x59.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 308px) 100vw, 308px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Note the huge reduction over when you go from wired to wireless. I was only ten feet from the wireless router when I ran this test.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Verizon is the only cell phone provider with true 4G service. Verizon calls it 4G LTE.\u00a0 You can get it several ways:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/SpeedTeston4G.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6878\" title=\"SpeedTeston4G\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/SpeedTeston4G.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"563\" height=\"331\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/SpeedTeston4G.png 563w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/04\/SpeedTeston4G-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 563px) 100vw, 563px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">These speeds are levels above anyone else&#8217;s &#8220;4G&#8221; service.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Don&#8217;t even consider buying a house or an apartment.<\/strong><\/span> Rent. Rent. Rent. It&#8217;s cheaper. It&#8217;s more convenient. There&#8217;s no maintenance. You get to leave painlessly at the end of the lease without waiting months for a buyer to show. But most importantly, the old presumption that housing prices always rise no longer holds. You could easily buy today for $x and in five years find your abode is only worth 70% of $x. above all you get to keep your capital. One day interest rates will rise. And you&#8217;ll be happy to have a few shekels sitting around.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And while we&#8217;re at it: Don&#8217;t ever consider building a swimming pool or a tennis court. The maintenance costs will eat you alive. Take your neighbors presents. They&#8217;ll let you use their toys.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Firefox 4.0 is much faster than earlier versions.<\/strong><\/span> Please upgrade. Firefox is my browser of choice. I lover 4.0&#8217;s new interface. As I wrote in the right column, it has oodles of plug-ins and add-ons, including my three favorites &#8212; Showcase, MeasureIt and ScreenGrab. Get it. It&#8217;s free.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Moody&#8217;s downgraded Ireland this morning.<\/strong><\/span>Whoopee. Gives you faith in the rating agencies! I met a bond guy recently who keeps his own database on bonds. He rates them himself. His are much different to the rating agencies, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. Remember: rating agencies are paid by the bond issuers &#8212; not by the people who rely on them &#8212; i.e. you and me investor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Lightbulbs revisited. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Lots of readers weighed in with their lightbulb experiences yesterday. Worth reading their <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=6850\" target=\"_blank\">comments<\/a>. Conclusions:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>+ <\/strong>The lightbulb decision is no longer simple. But it&#8217;s important and expensive. For example, 90% of a typical 100 watt bulb is lost in heat.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+ The labor to replace bulbs is expensive &#8212; often far more than the bulbs costs.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ CFLs (compact fluorescents) can be\u00a0 a great replacement option for incandescent bulbs. They last longer and cost a lot less to run. Quality and thus performance vary from product to product. Do your research, you&#8217;ll find\u00a0 CFL products out there that are excellent replacement products for incandescent bulbs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ There are other energy-efficient products like Cold Cathode and LED that may be a better option for some businesses and homeowners.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ I am impressed with the research <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bulbs.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Bulbs.com<\/strong><\/a> does on the bulbs it sells. Talk to them over the phone before you buy online.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Look at this dog.<\/strong><\/span> Simply amazing. I wish I could do half his tricks. Show your kids and grandkids. Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch_popup?v=P9Fyey4D5hg \" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>It drizzled in New York.<\/strong><\/span> I tried to cross a metal grate riding my bicycle. I came off the bike, but managed not to hit the ground by dint of slamming my left leg on the ground. Dumb to go anywhere near metal when you&#8217;re on a bicycle. Be careful.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Be wary of someone who keeps repeating your name.<\/strong><\/span> They&#8217;ve been taught to do that in broker sales school. It usually means you&#8217;re being sold a piece of crap. Be wary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Miele makes washing machines. <\/strong><\/span>My friends like them. I do, too. I especially like their phone service. I called with a problem. They found me the replacement part. They sent me an exploded parts diagram of my machine. I bought the part. It came the next day. I am impressed. My wife says little things impress me.\u00a0 She&#8217;s right. She&#8217;s always right.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Passover begins on Monday night.<\/strong><\/span> Get yourself invited to a Seder dinner. They&#8217;re fun, especially for the kids.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Moses and the Red Sea:<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nNine-year-old Joey was asked by his mother what he had learned at the Passover Seder dinner;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Our teacher told us how God sent Moses behind enemy lines on a rescue mission to lead the Israelites out of Egypt . When He got to the Red Sea , he had his army build a pontoon bridge and all the people walked across safely. Then, he radioed headquarters for reinforcements. They sent bombers to blow the bridge up and all the Israelites were saved.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Now, Joey, is that really what your teacher taught you?&#8221; his mother asked.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Well, no, Mom. But, if I told it the way the teacher did, you&#8217;d never believe it!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Amen.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>A Story about the present Budget Mess in Congress.<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nI met a fairy today who said she would grant me one wish.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;I want to live forever,&#8221; I said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Sorry,&#8221; said the fairy &#8220;I&#8217;m not allowed to grant wishes like that!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Fine,&#8221; I said, &#8220;then I want to die after Congress gets their heads out of their asses!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;You crafty bastard,&#8221; said the  fairy.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who wonders why everybody is getting fatter. Then Susan explained last night: &#8220;When we were in the California desert in March, we went everywhere by car. Now we&#8217;re back in New York, we walk. We don&#8217;t use our car during the week. Look. We&#8217;re walking back from the theater.&#8221; (Where we saw the first half of Arcadia and then left because I&#8217;m too stupid to understand what was going on.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I looked at my Google yesterday. I had a bad feeling. I didn&#8217;t like the way it was trading. I didn&#8217;t like a chart I&#8217;d seen of a flat (i.e. non-growing) market share of the search business. I was about to dump it. Then I got distracted. Last night it reported earnings that disappointed Wall [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6873\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}