here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\nEvery broker and his uncle has weighed in with reports on Annaly — nostly saying higher interest rates and a Federal debt downgrade could hurt. No one seems to be looking for any capital appreciation in the stock — bu then neither am I. I’m perfectly happy with the 14% dividend yield. Typical of brokerage reports is one from Citi Research:<\/p>\n
Of the agency mortgage REITs we cover, our confidence level is highest for NLY.
\nHowever, investors should brace for modestly higher volatility in the stock, until we
\nget better clarity on a potential U.S. downgrade and the resulting macro impact.<\/p>\n
This came in late this morning from Lazard:<\/p>\n
We are again moving out the timing of when we expect the Fed to begin raising
\nshort-term interest rates and when we anticipate a meaningful flattening of the
\nyield curve. The implication for the Agency Mortgage REITs we believe is more
\nsustainable dividends, which should drive higher valuations for many of these stocks.
\nAlthough we believe substantial dividend growth is likely to remain a challenge
\nthroughout the sector, we believe greater expected dividend sustainability could drive
\nlower required dividend yields for these stocks.<\/p>\n
We believe those Agency Mortgage REITs that are best positioned to take
\nadvantage of this expected environment are taking on more duration risk through
\na combination of asset selection, leverage, the portion of repo debt that is swapped, and
\nthe duration of their swap books. We believe such Agency Mortgage REITs\u2019 current
\nprices imply greater risk; however, we believe the stocks should provide greater riskadjusted
\nreturns.<\/p>\n
We now assume that the Fed does not begin to increase the Fed Funds rate until
\n1Q13 and that the yield curve remains at historically steep levels for at least the
\nnext 18 months whether the economy continues to grow at a below-trend pace or falls
\nback into recession. We believe that is the range of reasonable economic outcomes
\nduring that timeframe. We now anticipate the 2-year\/10-year Treasury yield spread to
\nbe at or exceed 200bps at least through the end of 2012.<\/p>\n
As a result, we are raising our rating on NLY shares to BUY from NEUTRAL
\nand introducing a price target of $19. In addition, we are raising our price target on
\nBUY-rated CYS to $15 from $13.50. Our price targets for AGNC ($30) and HTS
\n($29) are unchanged. For all of our BUY-rated stocks, we have raised required yields
\non forward dividends to reflect the impact of the pote<\/p>\n
Personally, I’m not looking for a major capital gain on any of these mortgage Reits. I’m happy with the high dividend yield.<\/p>\n
More great Hollywood Squares:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nQ. Which of your five senses tends to diminish as you get older?<\/p>\n
A. Charley Weaver: My sense of decency..<\/p>\n
Q. What are ‘Do It,’ ‘I Can Help,’ and ‘I Can’t Get Enough’?<\/p>\n
A. George Gobel: I don’t know, but it’s coming from the next apartment.<\/p>\n
Q. As you grow older, do you tend to gesture more or less with your hands while talking?<\/p>\n
A. Rose Marie: You ask me one more growing old question Peter, and I’ll give you a gesture you’ll never forget.<\/p>\n
Q. Charley, you’ve just decided to grow strawberries. Are you going to get any during the first year?<\/p>\n
A. Charley Weaver: Of course not, I’m too busy growing strawberries.<\/p>\n
Q. It is considered in bad taste to discuss two subjects at nudist camps.. One is politics, what is the other?<\/p>\n
A. Paul Lynde: Tape measures..<\/p>\n
Q. If you were pregnant for two years, what would you give birth to?<\/p>\n
A. Paul Lynde: Whatever it is, it would never be afraid of the dark.<\/p>\n
Q. Who stays pregnant for a longer period of time, your wife or your elephant?<\/p>\n
A. Paul Lynde: Who told you about my elephant?<\/p>\n
Q. When a couple have a baby, who is responsible for its sex?<\/p>\n
A.. Charley Weaver: I’ll lend him the car, the rest is up to him<\/p>\n
Q. Jackie Gleason recently revealed that he firmly believes in them and has actually seen them on at least two occasions. What are they?<\/p>\n
A. Charley Weaver: His feet.<\/p>\n
Q. According to Ann Landers, what are two things you should never do in bed?<\/p>\n
A. Paul Lynde: Point and laugh.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" "\\"HarryNewtonNewShot\\"")
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\n<\/strong><\/div>\nHarry Newton who played 1 1\/2 hours of aggressive tennis yesterday, had a great dinner, a great sleep and feels great this morning. The employment numbers look a bit better this morning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gold does well when turbulence is high. Here’s the last ten days: The more gold I own in these turbulent times, the healthier my portfolio looks. We’ve had eight days of stockmarket declines. They will reverse. Pick up some gold and some NLY. (See below.) A reader pointed out yesterday that if\u00a0 you owned a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/GoldLastTenDays.jpg\" "\\"GoldLastTenDays\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\n