{"id":8976,"date":"2011-08-29T09:06:48","date_gmt":"2011-08-29T13:06:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=8976"},"modified":"2011-08-29T09:44:34","modified_gmt":"2011-08-29T13:44:34","slug":"the-likelihood-of-a-double-dip-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=8976","title":{"rendered":"The likelihood of a double dip recession."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t like what I&#8217;m hearing, or, more precisely, what I&#8217;m not hearing.\u00a0 Too many people are predicting a double dip recession.There are 25 million Americans out of work or not working the hours they&#8217;d like. Ditto for Europe. Yet the focus is on low interest rates and fighting inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The only way to save the world&#8217;s economy is through economic growth. The only way to get economic growth is by putting all these people back to work. Yet, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have a jobs\/economic growth plan.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernanke says he&#8217;ll do more with monetary policy &#8212; keeping interest rates low. But low interest rates only benefit the banks and special companies like the mortgage REITs which benefit from interest rate spreads. Businessmen don&#8217;t borrow because interest rates are low. They borrow because they see expansion opportunities. Right now their sensible approach is to bulk up on cash &#8212; which is what businesses have been doing. There is an unprecedented amount of cash on corporate balance sheets. Sitting on cash doesn&#8217;t employ anyone.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">What&#8217;s most depressing is that you and I could\u00a0<strong> <\/strong>create in one-day a jobs-creating\/economic growth plan that would blow away  everything the Republicans and the Democrats have come up with. There are a zillion things people could be put back to work doing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Don\u2019t  worry about the deficit, the debt ceiling\u00a0 or inflation. Just get people back to work. The  resulting economic growth will solve everything. If you and I get it, why don&#8217;t our politicians?<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904787404576532811006776504.html?mod=djemheard_t\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Wall Street Journal <\/strong><\/a>writes:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The trouble today is that there&#8217;s no clear path to a resolution of Europe&#8217;s sovereign-debt crisis or a clean bill of health for the U.S. economy. In both cases, it could take months before investors have real visibility. In the meantime, stock pickers might want to brush up on their macro knowledge.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Value Line points out that on March 9, 2009 (the market&#8217;s low), the median of estimated price-earnings ratios of all stocks with earnings was <strong>10.3.<\/strong> It&#8217;s now <strong>13.6<\/strong>. Not cheap.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Time to be more in cash and mulling.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Dumb investment: building a house on the beach. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">And then waiting for the next hurricane.<\/span><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/badInvestment1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-8982\" title=\"badInvestment1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/badInvestment1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/badInvestment1.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/badInvestment1-300x136.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/BadInvestment2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-8983\" title=\"BadInvestment2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/BadInvestment2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/BadInvestment2.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/BadInvestment2-300x147.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Susan and I spent the weekend at our Columbia County house 127 miles north of New York City. We got a lot of rain. Many roads were washed out. Streams ran like Category 4 rapids. Some trees came down. We lost power for a few hours. Miraculously, our emergency generator kicked in, depriving us of a romantic evening. This morning, the skies are azure blue. Not a cloud. The temperature is crisp. Perfect tennis weather. What will the TV &#8220;meterologists&#8221; talk about now?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Relatives in Vermont are stranded by washed out bridges and washed-out roads. Vermont got hit really hard by flooding.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Life inside China.<\/strong><\/span> From today&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/chinarealtime\/2011\/08\/29\/ai-weiwei-beijing-is-a-nightmare\/?mod=WSJBlog&amp;mod=chinablog\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Wall Street Journal<\/strong><\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailybeast.com\/topics\/ai-weiwei.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Newsweek.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The U.S. Tennis Open starts today.<\/span> <\/strong>Live matches will be\u00a0  on ESPN2, with repeats on the Tennis Channel. When we get to the weekend  of September 10 and 11\u00a0 (semifinals and finals) it will move to CBS.  There&#8217;s a timetable <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usopen.org\/en_US\/about\/tv_us.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a> and\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tennis-warehouse.com\/tv_schedule.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><strong> <\/strong>Weather  and match length force changes in the schedule.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Novak Jokovic&#8217;s secret  of being Number 1 revealed: Sitting in a pressurized egg. Today&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904787404576532854267519860.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Wall Street Journal.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Big people words.<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\nA group of kindergartners were trying very hard to become accustomed to the first grade. The biggest hurdle they faced was that the teacher insisted on NO baby talk!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You need to use &#8216;Big People words,&#8217; she was always reminding them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">She asked John what he had done over the weekend? &#8216;I went to visit my Nana.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;No, you went to visit your GRANDMOTHER. Use &#8216;Big People&#8217; words!&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">She then asked Mitchell what he had done<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;I took a ride on a choo-choo.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">She said. &#8216;No, you took a ride on a TRAIN. You must remember to use &#8216;Big People&#8217; words.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">She then asked little Alex what he had done? &#8216;I read a book,&#8217; he replied.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#8217;s WONDERFUL!&#8217; the teacher said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8216;What book did you read?&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alex thought real hard about it, then puffed out his chest with great pride and said:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8220;Winnie the SHIT&#8221;<strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who played tennis (indoors) and read a lot of learned forecasters &#8212; including John Mauldin (&#8220;<em>Last week I finally stopped being wishy-washy (with my 50-50% chance of a  recession call) and said the US would be in recession within 12 months<\/em>&#8220;) and the Economist&#8217;s <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/21526897\" target=\"_blank\">How to Avoid a Double Dip<\/a> <\/strong> &#8212; and stuff the Europeans are doing wrong &#8212; like raising interest rates.\u00a0 Most depressing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bloomberg had a piece this morning: <em>The U.S. Needs a Jobs Policy, Not More Cheap Money<\/em>. Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2011-08-26\/the-u-s-needs-a-national-jobs-policy-not-more-cheap-money-by-fed-view.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>From a learned newspaper in the south: \u201cWitnessing the Republicans and Democrats bicker over the U.S. debt is analogous to watching two drunks argue over a bar bill on the Titanic.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I don&#8217;t like what I&#8217;m hearing, or, more precisely, what I&#8217;m not hearing.\u00a0 Too many people are predicting a double dip recession.There are 25 million Americans out of work or not working the hours they&#8217;d like. Ditto for Europe. Yet the focus is on low interest rates and fighting inflation. The only way to save [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8976\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}