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8:30 AM Tuesday, April 12, 2005:
The stockmarket remains not the place to be. As I've been nagging, cash
remains king. I know it makes sense to buy stocks that are out of favor. But not
now. It's too early. This market will fall further. If the most revered
investment stock of all times -- Berkshire Hathaway -- now becomes a Cockroach
Stock (as it's becoming), this market cannot hold. Add to that pressures of ebbing
profit growth, expanding budget and trade deficits, rising inflation, high oil
prices, no tech growth, etc.
Berkshire Hathaway, a Cockroach stock? Warren
Buffet was in New York yesterday answering questions from the New York State Attorney-General's
office about smelly accounting practices between a subsidiary of Berkshire called
General Reinsurance and AIG. The New York Times writes this morning
"Warren Buffett told investigators that he asked the top executive of
a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. insurance unit questions several times about a contentious
transaction with American International Group Inc. but that he never learned
any details ... "
Now think about this, the world's second richest man gets stonewalled by his
executives -- the ones he employs? Sounds plausible? And pigs will fly. AIG's
stock has tumbled and will tumble further. It's definitely a Cockroach Stock.
I'm betting that the Cockroach smell will start sticking more to Berkshire
Hathaway and it will tumble further, too.
The New York Times continued, "A handful of times during the interview,
investigators asked Mr. Buffett about how it was possible that he wasn't aware
of the details despite his repeated questions about the transaction, the people
say. Mr. Buffett told regulators he typically gives the managers of businesses
substantial leeway, the people say.
Regulators
also asked Mr. Buffett about a 25-minute phone call he had with Mr. Ferguson
in early November 2000, the people say. In the call, Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Buffett
talked briefly about the AIG transaction, a person familiar with the matter
says.
Exactly what
was said during that phone call is now a matter of dispute between Mr. Buffett
and Mr. Ferguson, according to people familiar with the situation. Mr. Buffett
told investigators yesterday that he wasn't told about the details of the
transaction, noting that he recalls speaking with Mr. Ferguson during the
call mostly about Mr. Greenberg's apparent desire to boost reserves and Mr.
Greenberg's frustration with Wall Street's criticism of AIG's reserve levels,
the people say. ..."
Mr. Buffett
also told investigators -- including officials from the SEC and the New York
insurance department, along with lawyers from the New York attorney general's
office and the Justice Department -- that he believed the transaction would
be properly accounted for, the people say."
It won't be properly accounted for. It was designed purely and simply
to make AIG's reserves and thus its stock look good. It was questionable at
best, fraudulent at worst.
What's even worse is that something weird is going on with Berkshire Hathaway.
Reports today's Wall Street Journal:
"Mr. Buffett, in a bid to win leniency for Berkshire from prosecutors
in an unrelated case, directed his outside lawyers several months ago
to turn over documents describing a suspect transaction between a Berkshire
unit and AIG, people familiar with the matter say. The documents led to the
regulatory scrutiny of Mr. Greenberg, the people say, and last month cost him
his job. Regulators are examining whether AIG manipulated its books to mislead
investors; the big insurer last week confessed to improper accounting that it
said could slash its net worth by $1.77 billion."
The Journal continued:
"Still unanswered, however, are questions about what Mr. Buffett may
have known about roughly 14 other transactions -- involving Berkshire's
General Re subsidiary -- that Berkshire lawyers told regulators about while
disclosing the deal with AIG. Also unknown is whether the probes might eventually
expand to examine activities of other Berkshire units involved in reinsurance,
which is insurance that insurers buy to lessen their own risks."
So, what is the "unrelated case" or cases that Buffet is so
worried about? Clearly he's worried. In fact, he's running scared. Otherwise,
why snitch to the authorities and ruin the career and reputation of one of the
country's leading businessman, namely Hank Greenberg? I can't find anything
on what the "unrelated case" case -- but it's got to be serious. Not
good for Berkshire Hathaway. And I'm a Buffet fan.
Don't
send contentious emails: The dumbest thing
you can do is to send bitching emails, written in the heat of anger.
The second dumbest thing is to negotiate a deal with someone on email. Emails
are for:
1. Sending nice complimentary notes.
2. Asking specific questions. "What's the voltage on product XCF-345?"
3. Confirming arrangements. "I'll be there at 8:00 AM." "You
agreed to buy 450 black widgets at $3.45 a piece."
The telephone is for working hard things out. But the absolute best way
of doing anything is still face-to-face. Get on a plane and solve the
problem.
I'm
a student of headlines: In 30-years of publishing, I've written thousands
of them. The good ones take much time. The center of headline writing in the
United States is Lantana, Florida where most of the supermarket tabloids are
based. I don't buy tabloids. But I couldn't resist this one. This one has the
best headline I've ever seen. I'm jealous I didn't write it. The headline
is"Final Proof. World is coming to an end." Many people
have written about the world coming to an end. That's an old story. But to add
"Final Proof," that's pure genius.
The sad part of this headline is that many people believe it. They use their
belief in the imminent end of the world to deny all responsibility for today's
world. This belief affects issues like energy conservation, global warming,
etc. If the world is coming to an end, why be concerned with tomorrow? Live
today like there is no tomorrow. For there will be no tomorrow. It's scary.
Please
be helping me. I've finally figured out my next venture. It's to
teach bad English to scammers. There's a certain charm in this scam email I
received yesterday.
"GOOD DAY,
PLEASE DON'T
BE SURPRIZED OR UPSETED BY MY SURPRISING MAIL TO YOU, PROPOSING FOR YOUR ENDEAVORS
ASSISTANCE.
BEFORE I PROCEED,
I HAD LIKED TO INTRODUCE MY SELF TO YOU, I AM MISS JENNIFER TAYLOR, 30YRS OF
AGE, THE DAUGHTER OF THE FORMER LIBERIAN PRESIDENT CHARLES TAYLOR,I HAVE IN
MY POSSESSION THE SUM OF forty five MILLION UNITED STATE DOLLARS {$45,000,000.00}
AND THE TOP LIST OF MY PRIORITY IS WHERE TO INVEST THIS MONEY OUTSIDE MY COUNTRY,
"REASON BEST KNOWN TO ME". I URGENTLY NEED YOUR ASSISTANCE IN PROVIDING
A RELIABLE GENUINE TRADE OR COMPANY WHERE I CAN INVEST THE FUND AND IMMEDIATELY
MEET YOU IN YOUR COUNTRY FOR SETTLEMENT.
PLEASE I WILL
KINDLY WELCOME YOUR ADVICE TOO. I AM EXPECTING YOUR URGENT MAIL RESPONSE. I
NEED YOUR SUPPORT AND SERIOUSNESS.
I AM PRESENTLY ON EXILE IN FREE TOWN SIERRALEONE WITH MY BROTHER CHOKRI TAYLOR
AFTER THE UNITED STATES ASKED MY FATHER TO RESIGN AS THE PRESIDENT OF LIBERIA.
MY FATHER IS ALSO ON A SELF EXILE TOO IN ONE OF THE WEST AFRICAN COUNTRY.
YOUR URGENT
RESPONSE IS EXPECTED. SEND CONFIDENTIAL PHONE NUMBER SO THAT I CAN REACH YOU
WHEN NECCESSARY. SEND YOUR REPLY TO MY CONFIDENTIAL BOX: jennifer_taylor@codehot.co.uk
THANKING YOU
FOR YOUR ANTICIPATED KIND ASSISTANCE, WHILE I WAIT FOR YOUR POSITIVE RESPONSE.
Ms. JENNIFER
TAYLOR
FREETOWN
SIERRA LEONE."
How
does America look to foreign eyes? If you forgot to read Bernard-Henri
Lévy's piece on America, which I mentioned yesterday, Click
here.
How do tech stocks look to Fred Hickey, who
writes "The High-Tech Strategist" newsletter? In one word --
overpriced. If you missed yesterday's piece, click
here.
Prince
Charles finally married his mistress of 30+ years:
And
the story goes, Prince Charles was driving around his mother's estate when he
accidentally ran over her favorite dog, a corgi, crushing it to a pulp.
He got out of
his Range Rover and sat down on the grass totally distraught. The whole world
was against him and now his mother would go ballistic.
Suddenly he noticed
a lamp half-buried in the ground. He dug it up, polished it and immediately
a genie appeared. "You have freed me from thousands of years of imprisonment,"
said the genie. "As a reward I shall grant you one wish."
"Well," said the
Prince, "I have all the material things I need, but let me show you this dog."
They walk over
to the splattered remains of the dog. "Do you think you could bring this dog
back to life for me?" the Prince asked.
The genie carefully
looked at the remains and shook his head. "This body is too far gone for even
me to bring it back to life. Is there something else you would like?"
The Prince thought
for a minute, reached into his pocket and pulled out two photos. "I was married
to this beautiful woman called Diana," said Prince Charles, showing the genie
the first photo. "But now I love this woman called Camilla," and he showed the
genie the second photo. "You see Camilla isn't beautiful at all, so do you think
you can make Camilla as beautiful as Diana?"
The genie studied
the two photographs and after a few minutes said, "Let's have a look at the
dog again."
Harry Newton
This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't
give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities,
which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday
through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting
things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing
called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage
my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can
all learn together. My email address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no
role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look
mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. That money
will help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense,
click
here and here.
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