Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
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8:30 AM Wednesday, February 23, 2005:
Remember yesterday? Smith Barney, the stockbroker part
of Citigroup, issued an analyst report which actually began, "The equity
market looks ready to head back into rally mode, driven by sentiment,
semis and still-attractive valuation thus we are adding beta.
The
market read Citigroup's words of wisdom and promptly took its biggest decline
since May 19, 2003 (as measured by the Dow's 1.6% drop).
The dollar fell
1.4% -- a gigantic one-day move. The prices of 10- and 30 year Treasurys dropped
substantially. And the price of oil closed above $51. It could have been worse.
As I've mentioned before, I have two fears:
1. Equities will decline in 2005.
2. There'll be a spectacular one day-decline that could drop equities
as much as 25% -- much more than yesterday's 1.4%.
My advice remains Cash is King. Savings accounts. Muni bond floaters.
All look good. They preserve your capital. Little else does at present.
To explain our problem is simple: The U.S. is living way beyond its means. Our
government spends far more than it earns. Our country imports far more than
it exports. If our government were a company, it would have filed Chapter 11
already and be re-organizing under strict court supervision. Yesterday's sell-off
in the dollar was attributed to rumors that South Korea would cut back its purchases
of U.S. Treasurys. How important are these purchases? Look at this chart. Think
about it. We rely on the goodwill of other countries to support our dollar and
our economy. How would you feel as a country, if you saw your major savings
declining in value day-by-dreary day? If you were a banker, would you continue
to lend America money given its irresponsible spending habits and its unwillingness
to do tackle its problems head-on. (What no energy policy, yet?)
Top
Five Holders of U.S. Treasurys ($ billions)
|
Dec.
2004
|
Dec.
2000
|
Japan
|
711.8
|
Japan
|
317.7
|
China
|
193.8
|
China
|
60.3
|
U.K.
|
173.7
|
U.K.
|
50.2
|
Caribbean*
|
69.4
|
Germany
|
49.0
|
Korea
|
69.0
|
OPEC
|
47.7
|
*Includes
Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, and Panama
Source: U.S. Treasury Department and the screwed-up Wall Street Journal |
The
Wall Street Journal Screws Up: I've run magazines
for 30-years. And there's one thing I always insisted on -- namely that my reporters
check their stories. The largest and wealthiest newspaper in the country is
the Wall Street Journal. They have the resources to check. This morning
the Journal ran this: "But responding to service issues has required
changing the culture of the cable guy. Charlene Keys, head of Time Warner Cable's
phone effort in Columbia, S.C., presented copies of "Newton's Telecom Directory"
to her senior executives so they could look up such phone-industry terms as
"interconnection" and "quality of service."
That's a lovely
plug for my book. Except that the real name is Newton's Telecom Dictionary.
You'd think the Wall Street Journal would check. All they had to do was
put the words "Newton's Telecom Directory" into Google. The first
hit says "Newton's Telecom Dictionary."
Of course, all this plays right into the hands of my friends in the red states
who say the Eastern publishing empires can't be trusted. Sadly, they have a
point.
If only the Journal had bothered to check...
The
Best Investment Advice
The wise old Mother Superior from county Tipperary was dying. The
nuns gathered around her bed trying to make her comfortable. They gave her some
warm milk to drink, but she refused it. Then one nun took the glass back to
the kitchen.
Remembering a bottle of Irish whiskey received as a gift the previous Christmas,
she opened it and poured a generous amount into the warm milk.
Back at Mother Superior's bed, she held the glass to her lips. Mother drank
a little, then a little more. Before they knew it, she drank the whole glass
down to the last drop.
"Mother," the nuns asked with earnest, "Please give us some wisdom
before you die," Barely audible and with a serene look on her face she
said, "Don't sell that cow."
|
Harry Newton
This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment.
I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with
regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for
three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search
of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send
me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together.
My email address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have
no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some
look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money.
That money will help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google
AdSense, click
here and here.
Go back.
|