Previous Columns
9:00 AM EST Monday, June 2, 2008: How goes the economy? It's a question I get asked constantly. To one questioner, I suggested tough times were ahead. The questioner ripped into me. How could I be so "gloom and doom" when his friend, the commercial real estate broker in San Francisco, was going gangbusters?

Our economy is 70% what people spend. If you factor in rising gas and food prices, huge job losses (65,000 alone on Wall Street) and the decline in housing value, things look bleak.

There two two problem predicting the economy. First, it's very large. No one, including our wonderful Federal Government can get their hands around it. All its monthly statistics are flawed statistical samples. Second, people adjust. We're driving less. We're finding closer jobs. We're eating out less. Etc.

We predict the economy to to pick investments. It's easier to make money when all the boats are rising. That isn't the case now. This is not a happy market:

This is not a market that favors index funds. It is a market that favors shorting overpriced stocks -- of which there are plenty. My two favorite ones at present are First Solar (FSLR) and Lehman Brothers (LEH). I need to find more. (I played too much tennis over the weekend.)

A good source of shorts turns out to be my other web site: www.AuctionRatePreferreds.org. You're not going to believe this but those financials which have acted most irresponsibly have been great shorts. They include Wachovia, UBS, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Bank of America. Drat! Why didn't I think of these before?

The best advice I can give you is to keep all your thoughts on the economy to yourself. Your friends will tune you out when you tell them horrible things like "The world's largest financial institutions reported more than $386 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses tied to the U.S. housing slump, according to Bloomberg data." And there are more asset writedowns coming -- perhaps close to $750 billion.

Your friends will get even more pissed when they find out you're making money selling short.

Hay fever is vicious in the North-East.. It's the worst I can remember. Patented Harry Newton solutions:

1. Crank down the air conditioner. Freeze your nose.

2. Wash your face constantly in cold water.

3. Clean your sinuses out with a neti pot and luke-warm saline water. For more, the Wall Street Journal.

4. Lie down . Horizontal seems to work.

5. Veramyst or Nasonex nasal sprays.

6. Claritin, Alavert and sundry pills you can buy in a drugstore. I don't personally like taking pills. But Claritin usually works.

Enthusiasm for xobni. I mentioned this Outlook plug-in twice already. As I use it more, I like it more. It's called xobni. It has two pluses -- lightning fast searching, and threaded conversations, i.e. easy to see what you're been emailing about.

Another reminder to have your children and grandchildren watch this video. Shimon Peres, current President of Israel, gives advice to kids about their future. Peres served twice as Prime Minister of Israel and has written 11 books. This is a seriously super talk. Click here.

The French Tennis Open continues. Watch it in high definition (HD). The quality is mind-blowing. HD is the only way to watch sports. The Tennis Channel is 455 on Time Warner Manhattan and 217 on DirecTV. ESPN is 209 on DirecTV and 29 and 729 (HD) on Time Warner. Your channels will be different.

A happy ending.
A New Zealander was washed up on a beach after a terrible shipwreck. Only a sheep and a sheepdog were washed up with him.

Looking around, he realised that they were stranded on a deserted island. After being there a while, he got into the habit of taking his two animal companions to the beach every evening to watch the sun set.

One particular evening, the sky was a fiery red with beautiful cirrus clouds, the breeze was warm and gentle - a perfect night for romance.

As they sat there, the sheep started looking better and better to the lonely New Zealander. Soon, he leaned over to the sheep and... put his arm around it.

But the sheepdog, ever protective of the sheep, growled fiercely until the man took his arm from around the sheep..

After that, the three of them continued to enjoy the sunsets together but there was no more cuddling.

A few weeks passed by and, lo and behold, there was another shipwreck. The only survivor was a beautiful young woman, the most beautiful woman the man had ever seen... She was in a pretty bad way when he rescued her and he slowly nursed her back to health.

When the young maiden was well enough, he introduced her to their evening beach ritual. It was another beautiful evening...red sky, cirrus clouds, a warm and gentle breeze - perfect for a night of romance.

Pretty soon, the New Zealander started to get 'those feelings' again. He fought the urges as long as he could but he finally gave in and, realising he now had the opportunity, leaned over to the young woman cautiously and whispered in her ear, 'Would you mind taking the dog for a walk?'

This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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