Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Auction Rate Securities. Auction Rate Preferreds.
9:00 AM EST Friday, June 6, 2008: Today
is French Open men's semifinals. Tomorrow is women's singles final. Sunday is
men's singles final. All matches should be great.
Bernanke is playing
a dangerous game, messing up my Lehman Brothers shorts and creating dissension
in the ranks. Said Richmond Fed President Lacker yesterday:
The Fed may
be distorting private markets, encouraging risky behavior, and the central
bank's independence may be endangered because of lending programs created
to combat the credit crisis.
this election matter to the markets? A
Republican victory is good for the market. A Democratic win is bad. Wrong! In
a review of 27 presidential elections, Goldman Sachs found there was basically
no difference. Goldman called it "statistically insignificant." And
"there is nothing to suggest that portfolio allocations should be driven
by views on which party is likely to be emerge victorious. "
there will be tax changes. And this will be significant. Hint: Now is a good
time to sell your business since capital gains are likely to rise substantially
under a President Obama.
Absent a deal
or a change, the capital gains rate will revert to 20% after 2010, from 15%
today. The sunsetting of the dividend tax cut would revert to your marginal
tax rate, or nearly 40% if the top tax brackets are left to expire as
well. Goldman believes such a change may be opposed by many senior citizens
many of whom rely on dividends for their retirement.
Goldman says that
higher-dividend paying stocks did not perform better after the dividend tax
was cut by Bush. So presumably they won't perform worse now.
solar stocks. Heh, I'm brilliant. I recommended selling First Solar
(FSLR) short. I'm guessing many of you followed. I sold FSLR short a $315.70
and bought it back yesterday at $247.223. There were two reasons for buying
in yesterday: First, the solar stocks were rising strongly. Second, the chart
looked obvious. I drew the line to show "support."
Meantime, my favorite
solar stocks are Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Suntech Power Holdings (STP), ReneSola
(SOL), A-Power Energy (APWR) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ). All are solidly profitable.
Buy yourself a portfolio of each. You won't be unhappy.
pick and shovel: I've known about Bucyrus (BUCY)
for eons, but ignored because I was stupid.
pounded the table for BUCY last night, so watch for a leap this morning and
a pullback later. Here's a good description of what BUCY does (courtesy the
Wall Street Journal):
Inc. designs, manufactures mining equipment for the extraction of coal, copper,
oil sands, iron ore and other minerals in mining centers throughout the world.
In addition to the manufacture of original equipment, the Company also provides
the aftermarket replacement parts and service for equipment. The Company operates
in two business segments: surface mining and underground mining. The Company's
manufacturing facilities include Australia, China, Germany, Poland and the
United States, and service and sales centers include Australia, Brazil, Canada,
Chile, China, England, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa and the United
States. The Company's surface mining equipment includes draglines, electric
mining shovels and rotary blasthole drills. In May 2007, the Company completed
the acquisition of DBT GmbH, a subsidiary of RAG Coal International AG.
commercial real estate is edging to becoming reasonable: Prices
are coming down. Yields are rising. But you need more money. Remember my rule
about Cash is King? Now you see why. A year ago, you could -- if you were lucky
-- get 90% financing. Now you're lucky to get 60%. That means
you need more cash.
won't borrow any longer on Wall Street, who would (in the old days) sell your
mortgage to someone else. Now you'll get it from a local bank -- a much more
conservative animal. And they'll want your personal guarantee. Choose carefully.
you need network backup also. Time Warner RoadRunner
cable modem service in Manhattan has become increasingly unreliable. It breaks
down regularly, with outages lasting hours. The best "backup" is Verizon
FiOS -- if you can get it, which I can't, sadly. FiOS 's faster, cheaper and
more reliable. Second best backup is Verizon's Broadband Access service, which
now comes pre-installed on many laptops.
30 is the last day for Windows XP. I just bought my son a 2.4 GHz
speed, 3 gig memory, 250 gig hard drive, 3 lb weight Lenovo Thinkpad X61 for
under $1350. An amazing bargain.
of mind: I threw out xobni, the search engine
add-on for Outlook. It was too complicated for my tiny brain. A reader turned
me onto Lookeen, which has a cleaner
interface and lets you also index other files, e.g. all your letters in My
Documents. There's a key to indexing. If you wish to find President Bush,
you need to search for "President Bush." Otherwise you'll find a lot
of presidents and not too many President Bushes.
don't make this up:
+ A Denmark radio station is running a contest
for Miss Headscarf. A Danish newspaper published the cartoons that linked the
Prophet Mohammed to terrorism and sparked riots across the Middle East.
+ Zimbabwe has
told all aid groups to halt their efforts, depriving more than two million people
of food. Unemployment in Zimbabwe now exceeds 80%. The
country is in shambles. Violence is rampant as the 28-year government of Robert
Mugabe seeks to extend its power in the presidential runoff election this month.
Nut case Robert Zugabe, 84.
Turkmenistan has begun allowing private citizens to connect to the Internet
country's only Internet provider, Turkmentelekom, said Thursday that it has
been connecting up to 20 homes daily since the start of the week, mainly in
the capital Ashgabat. It said it has a waiting list of 2,000 people.
+ Russian millionaire
Valery Kogan wants to build a 54,000 square-foot home in Greenwich, CT with
26 toilets. Some residents think that's too many for one house. The Chinese
have their own solution for the Olympics:
French Tennis Open continues.
Watch it in high definition (HD). The quality is mind-blowing. The best HD seems
to be from DirecTV and shown on my Samsung DLP big screen TV. HD is the only
way to watch sports. The Tennis Channel is 455 on Time Warner Manhattan
and 217 on DirecTV. ESPN is 209 on DirecTV and 29 and 729 (HD) on Time Warner.
Your channels will be different.
As you watch the tennis, You'll notice: 1. How deep they hit the ball. 2. How
much they move the ball around, from side to side. 3. How often they run around
their backhands. 4. How consistent the better players are. They simply make