Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Auction Rate Securities. Auction Rate Preferreds.
9:00 AM EST Monday, June 9, 2008: This
is our Moment of Pain, as high oil, plummeting housing and stock prices
destroy our wealth. But the news is good, in fact excellent. Humans need a crisis
to alert them to new ways of thinking and acting. Suddenly, new opportunities
own business: Now is the perfect time to start your own business. People
are cheap. Your competitors are laying off people like they expect no tomorrow.
And you can take advantage of all the new ways of getting into business, including
cheap web sites and cheap selling on the Internet. Your new customers are craving
for a returned phone call, for friendly service, for a "No worries, mate."
(My favorite Australian expression.)
energy. With high oil prices, alternative energy now makes sense. My favorite
new energy stocks are the photovoltaics -- Canadian Solar (CSIQ), A-Power Energy
Generation (APWR), Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Suntech Power Holdings (STP),
and, once again, First Solar (FSLR), which I suspect has finished its slide.
There's also everything from wind power
conservation. There's a huge business in Europe making factories to become
more energy efficient. That business will explode here also. The major energy
conservation I did to my new house was blown-in foam (not fiber glass) insulation.
It's now paying off in spades.
local financial institutions. People have lost faith in Wall Street. But,
they haven't lost their need to bank, invest and borrow money. My friend got
together with local businessmen and formed a new bank. I remember when I was
a child, my father told me he had the same bank manager for 25 years. What a
joy to have a relationship with someone who's sticks around and cares about
my business. I am a client of several Wall Street houses. In the old days they
actually cared about me. But lately, they've cared only about themselves.
They keep the best opportunities for themselves. They gamble with their money.
They ignore mine.
and Tele-everything else. Monitoring people remotely is cheaper than forcing
them to drive to a hospital. My 91-year old father-in-law is now living with
us. He needs to be monitored, and have a way to alert us to emergencies.
companies: No recession, no government, no nothing is going to stop a couple
of billion people in India, China, Brazil, Russia and even Africa from wanting
refrigerators, mobile phones, cars etc. The usual suspects reign -- from BHP
to RioTinto to all my Australian miners.
companies: Monsanto (MON) and Syngenta (SYT)
make seed that give farmers more bang for their bucks. And the potash companies
give them the fertilizer they need -- Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT) and
Intrepid Potash (IPI).
The traditional "big" technology companies like Cisco, Intel,
Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard will flounder around. No opportunities there. But
new tech will do well. And that includes everyone from Bucyrus International
(BUCY) to Zoltek (ZOLT).
Employers will need new ways of getting their employees to work. Maybe there's
an opportunity to rent those yellow schoolbuses which do no nothing most of
the day? The railroads, like CSX, are on a roll (bad pun) also.
real estate. On Friday, I wrote,
commercial real estate is edging to becoming reasonable: Prices are coming
down. Yields are rising. But you need more money. Remember my rule about Cash
is King? Now you see why. A year ago, you could -- if you were lucky -- get
90% financing. Now you're lucky to get 60%. That means you need
won't borrow any longer on Wall Street, who would (in the old days) sell your
mortgage to someone else. Now you'll get it from a local bank -- a much more
conservative animal. And they'll want your personal guarantee. Choose carefully.
bicycle makers. My friend bought one recently. He loves it. He rides it
around Manhattan. He puts $8 of gas in it once a month. I prefer my bicycle.
Gregory Peck and Audrey Hepburn on a scooter in 'Roman Holiday.'
This is the perfect market for going short. It may be time to close my Lehman
Brothers shorts today, since all the horrible news is out. And we all did well
on the First Solar shorts. There are zillion more shorts. Stick around.. We'll
find them together. Send me an email with your favorite shorts -- .
I didn't have time to find more on the weekend. I played and watched too much
tennis. Sorry about the final. Nadal is an animal.
OK. That's it.
Those are the opportunities I thought up in two hours of writing this column
this morning. It's time for you to email me your favorites. Do it. Let's be
positive. Let's get us all out of this mess.
may be Taliban if ...
1. You refine
heroin for a living but have a moral objection to beer.
2. You own a $3000
machine gun and $5000 rocket launcher but can't afford decent shoes.
3. You have more
wives than teeth.
4. You think vests
come in two styles: bullet-proof and suicide.
5. You can't think
of anyone you HAVEN'T declared Jihad against.
6. You consider
television dangerous but routinely carry explosives in your clothing.
7. You've uttered
the phrase 'I love what you've done with your cave.'
story of the black man and the alligator.
A filthy rich North Carolina man decided to have a Party and invited
all of his buddies.