Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
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8:30 AM Monday, May 23, 2005: My
life's goal is to beat Skip Hartman at tennis. Yesterday he beat me 6-2, 6-4.
I take lessons. Every day we play I get better. But Skip ratchets his game up.
I've been losing to Skip for 20 years. Everyone should have an irrelevant goal,
with an important byproduct -- lots of exercise.
We sold another property: This one gave us
a 26% IRR. I asked Jeff Lew, the sub-syndicator, "What now?"
Jeff answered:
Actually
what happened was typical of the category. Taurus identified an opportunity
that eventually was discovered by the market. At the time single tenant properties
traded at a higher cap rate. Putting a bunch of those together to diversify
out the risk was a smart idea. Others caught on and the good pricing went
away.
It's like you said the other day in your column. Buy a house
from someone who needs to sell, a divorcee, a family moving etc. We have a
good roster of sponsors that are smart and uncover opportunities in the marketplace.
Be sure to diversify, and bet on smart people, ones with a history of success.
The real estate market is inefficient and not perfect. Smart sponsors
find opportunity. That's my plan.
Makes sense to
me.
Invest
like Harvard and Yale: Allocation
is the key to decent portfolio performance. We know that. We also know if you
go to a stockbroker you'll be given an "allocation" that's ultra-narrow
-- stocks, bonds and cash. On May 11 (click
here), I wrote how Yale earned 19.1% on its endowment in 2004,
bringing its 10-year return to 16.8% a year, net of fees. Now comes word
of Harvard's performance -- 15.9% average over the last
decade, and 21.1% last year.
The "BIG Things" you learn from Harvard and Yale:
1. Their sharply decreasing reliance on U.S. equities -- i.e. the stuff BubbleVision
(CNBC) fills its airways with.
2. Their broad allocation to many asset classes., many of which sadly aren't
easily available to you and I.
3. The extreme skills needed to manage money. Harvard paid two of its bond managers
$25 million last year. And -- dig this -- they're leaving Harvard to (hopefully)
earn more money in their own hedge fund.
4. Harvard relies heavily on short-term trading.

From the NY Times, May 22, 2005. Click
here. |
Yale
|
Asset
Class
|
June
2004
|
Current
Target
|
Domestic
Equity |
14.8%
|
15.0%
|
Fixed
Income |
7.4%
|
7.5%
|
Absolute
Return* |
26.1%
|
25.0%
|
Foreign
Equity |
14.8%
|
15.0%
|
Private
Equity |
14.5%
|
17.5%
|
Real
Assets** |
18.8%
|
20.0%
|
Cash |
3.5%
|
0.0%
|
* Absolute
return investments "seek to generate high long-term real returns by
exploiting market inefficiencies. Approximately half of the portfolio is
dedicated to event-driven strategies, which rely on a very specific corporate
event, such as a merger, spin-off or bankruptcy restructuring, to achieve
a target price. The other half of the portfolio contains value-driven strategies,
which involve hedged positions in assets or securities that diverge from
underlying economic value. ... Unlike traditional marketable securities,
absolute return investments provide returns largely independent of overall
market moves. Over the past ten years, the portfolio exceeded expectations,
returning 12.2% per cent per year with essentially no correlation to domestic
stock and bond markets.
** Yale defines real assets as real estate, oil and gas, and timberland.
Yale says these "share common characteristics: sensitivity to inflationary
forces, high and visible current cash flow and opportunity to exploit inefficiencies."
See my May 11 column for more on Yale. Click
here. |
How
to be an equity angel. Here's your quiz today. You're an angel. You
invest in start-ups. You receive one with a new idea. No competitors. Easy technology.
Some patent coverage. A couple of prototypes built. The following estimated
financials. Would you do it? Send me an email with your reactions.
Summary
Financials (cash)
|
|
FY2005
|
FY
2006
|
FY
2007
|
Gross
Revenues |
$2,755,000
|
$21,440,150
|
$35,251,800
|
Cost of Goods Sold |
$1,979,507
|
$10,803,128
|
$17,337,994
|
Net
Revenues |
$775,494
|
$10,637,022
|
$17,913,806
|
Operating Expenses |
$1,457,285
|
$4,428,350
|
$5,373,094
|
Net
Cash (Operations) |
($681,792)
|
$6,208,672
|
$12,540,712
|
Gross
Margin |
71.9%
|
50.4%
|
49.2%
|
Net
Margin |
-24.7%
|
29.0%
|
35.6%
|
Revenue
Growth-- year to year |
|
778.2%
|
164.4%
|
The
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Changing Galaxy:
UBS analyst Pip Coburn recently wrote "Which technologies will be winners
and what will be losers?
Winners: Flat panels -- Texas Instruments (TXN) and Corning (GLW). Business
Intelligence -- Cognose (COGN) and (Hyperion Solutions) HYSL. Mobile email --
Research in Motion (RIMM). Satellite radio -- XM Satellite Radio (XMSR).
Losers: fiber to the premise, WiMax, RFID, the digital home.
I'm dubious I'd go anywhere near any of his picks. But when you're an analyst
covering a field, you've got to make some picks. You can't do what Yale and
Harvard do -- go elsewhere.
Unreliable Mercedes: We bought
a new Mercedes E500 wagon a year ago. Our experience has not been good.
The electronics give far too much trouble. The low profile tires are a disaster
in New York's potholey streets. Our troubles are reflected in Daimler-Chrysler's
financial results for its Mercedes division. Good news: they finally fixed their
cupholders in the 2005 model.
Words of wisdom: "Nothing is more difficult
than to introduce a new order. Because the innovator has for enemies all those
who have done well under the old conditions and lukewarm defenders in those
who may do well under the new." -- Noccolo Machiavelli, 1532AD.
Guaranteed
folk remedies: On Friday I wrote about three. I've fixed the ginger
powder recipe:
1. Arthritis:
Soak a pound of golden raisins in gin. When the gin is absorbed into the raisins,
put the raisins in a jar. Eat nine raisins each day.
2. Travel sickness:
+ Bandaid a copper penny to your bellybutton.
+ When feeling queasy, inhale deep whiffs of a black and white newspaper.
+ Drink 1/2 teaspoon of ginger powder dissolved in eight ounces of warm water,
20 minutes before traveling.
3. Allergies: Chew honeycomb. Swallow the honey. Chew on the comb and
spit it out. The honeycomb must come from your part of the country. Buy
it at your local farmers' market.
Here are two more -- these work also:
4. Leg Cramps. Use this simple technique called "acupinch"
and the muscle cramp will go away almost instantly. The second you get a cramp,
use your thumb and your index finger and inch your philtrum -- the skin between
your nose and upper lip. Keep pinching until the pain and cramp disappear.
5. Sty. As soon as you feel a sty coming on, rub it at least three times
with a gold ring. It may sound like a superstition, but it works.
For more, the
book is Bottom Line's Healing Remedies by Joan and Lydia Wilen.
Click
here.
The Dentist and the Golf Game
A man and his wife walk into a dentist's office. The man says to
the dentist, "Doctor, I'm in a terribly big hurry! I have two buddies sitting
out in my car waiting for us to go play golf. So forget about the anesthetic
and just pull the tooth and be done with it--I don't have time to wait for the
anesthetic to work!"
The dentist thinks
to himself, "My goodness--this sure is a brave man, asking me to pull a
tooth without any anesthetic."
The dentist asks
him, "Which tooth is it, sir?"
The man turns
to his wife, "Open your mouth, Honey, and show the nice doctor which tooth
hurts."
Harry Newton
This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't
give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities,
which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday
through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting
things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing
called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage
my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can
all learn together. My email address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no
role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look
mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. That money
will help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense,
click
here and here.
Go back.
|