Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
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8:30 AM EST, Thursday, May 24: Here
are the results for some of the places I have (or used to have) money invested.
There are several lessons:
1.
Diversification works.
2. Surprises happen. The best performing thing was actually EWA -- the Australian
iShare that I've been plugging. It rose 18.94% in the first four months
of 2007. It's not in the chart.
3. Some managers lose their way. And then it's time to get out. I'm out of Private
Capital. What with their obsession on newspapers, they have clearly lost their
way. Look at their numbers.
4.
Smaller managers tend to do better than larger managers. Smaller managers tend
to have more of their own money in their own fund. Thus their goal is
to build value, rather than building size and, hence, fees on your money.
5.
I'm still wrestling with the issue of when to fire a manager. I tend now to
feel it's not when the manager's returns are bad, but when they're bad
and out of line with everyone else, e.g. Private Capital.
6. Most -- not all -- of the Vanguard Index funds are doing as well as some
of my managed money managers -- but not as well as the best ones.
7.
The stuff is complex. Gentle management, gentle changes seem to work best.
8.
The final conclusion: If the end result is a little profit, you're doing OK.
Profit is as good as money, or even as good as cash.
|
Actively
Managed?
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
First
qtr 2007
|
April-07
|
YTD
|
Australian
ASX 300 |
Index
|
27.92%
|
22.45%
|
24.51%
|
6.95%
|
4.34%
|
11.29%
|
Lateef |
Yes
|
17.24%
|
15.14%
|
9.68%
|
3.38%
|
5.60%
|
8.98%
|
Lewis
Fund |
Yes
|
na
|
33.25%
|
77.46%
|
12.00%
|
1.63%
|
13.63%
|
MDT |
Yes
|
15.88%
|
13.89%
|
14.45%
|
1.23%
|
5.43%
|
6.66%
|
Modern
Capital |
Yes
|
20.20%
|
13.28%
|
19.31%
|
7.57%
|
3.55%
|
11.12%
|
Newgate
(Miners, Energy stocks, etc.) |
Yes
|
**29.14%
|
25.51%
|
30.84%
|
6.73%
|
6.86%
|
13.59%
|
Private
Capital |
Yes
|
18.73%
|
0.05%
|
16.53%
|
-0.15%
|
1.04%
|
0.89%
|
Russell
2000 |
Index
|
11.36%
|
4.55%
|
18.37%
|
1.94%
|
1.80%
|
3.74%
|
S&P
500 |
Index
|
10.88%
|
4.89%
|
15.80%
|
0.64%
|
4.43%
|
5.07%
|
Snow
Capital |
Yes
|
17.29%
|
13.93%
|
16.13%
|
4.78%
|
4.11%
|
8.89%
|
iShares
Bundle*** |
Indexes
|
15.49%
|
11.37%
|
16.37%
|
2.50%
|
3.54%
|
6.04%
|
Strategic
Commodities (not stocks) |
Yes
|
new
|
26.70%
|
-5.34%
|
6.50%
|
2.33%
|
8.83%
|
Valesco
(Biotech stocks only) |
Yes
|
new
|
-0.39%
|
4.39%
|
6.24%
|
1.33%
|
7.57%
|
Vanguard
US - International Value Fund |
No
|
20.25%
|
13.54%
|
26.34%
|
3.25%
|
3.67%
|
6.92%
|
Vanguard
US. - International Stock Index |
No
|
20.93%
|
15.78%
|
26.92%
|
3.85%
|
3.92%
|
7.77%
|
Vanguard
US- Global Equity Fund |
No
|
15.75%
|
11.37%
|
21.53%
|
3.84%
|
4.50%
|
8.34%
|
Vanguard
US- 500 Index Fund |
No
|
10.88%
|
4.91%
|
15.79%
|
0.63%
|
4.42%
|
5.05%
|
Vanguard
US- Pacific Stock Index |
No
|
18.98%
|
22.64%
|
12.20%
|
4.49%
|
-0.44%
|
4.05%
|
Vanguard
U.S.- Emerging Markets Stock Index |
No
|
new
|
new
|
29.94%
|
2.22%
|
4.23%
|
6.45%
|
Vanguard
US - Mid-Cap Index Fund |
No
|
20.52%
|
13.94%
|
13.75%
|
4.60%
|
3.67%
|
8.27%
|
**
4/30/2004 through 12/31/2004 |
*
Approximately |
***
A bunch of iShares chosen by a professional manager |
How
not to be outbid on eBay:
Vinnie sent me:
There are programs
out there that bid for you automatically. You program them with the price
you would like to bid and the time you would like it to place it. If you have
a high speed Internet connection, they recommend 3 seconds before the auction
ends. They work very well. I use Bay
Genie eBay auction sniper pro edition.
Steve
Schone writes:
Ebay power users
use automated bidding software. I use one called Bidnapper.
Automated bidding software places your bid in the last minute of the auction
(generally in the last few seconds). You set the parameters like max bid and
it does the rest. It allows you to set up conditional bids like bid on item
1, bid on item 2 only if you don't win item 1., etc.
There
appear to be zillions of eBay bidding software out there. Google "eBay Auction
software."
CHECK. CHECK. CHECK. Check every invoice
you receive. I received three this week. All were wrong in their favor. None of
the mistakes were malicious. The "computer" simply added arbitrary amounts
in -- extra charges for items that were already in the price, or the computer
charged for items the company's salesman had agreed not to charge for. The telecom
industry is notorious for bad bills, with salesmen bidding on monthly sales plans
that simply don't exist in their company's computer. The pretty bills computer
produce are no more accurate that the ones that were hand-done in days of old.
Unlocked
GSM phones: From reader Scott Mullen:
You can find
all of the carriers unlocked GSM phones at egizmo.com.
I have bought many phones from them and never have had one problem.
Free
Software to Play DVDs. From today's New
York Times:
Q. I would
like to watch DVDs on my computer with a program that works better than Windows
Media Player. Are there any free ones available?
A. Windows Media
Player is Microsofts free software for playing audio and video files,
and it comes with most versions of Windows. You can find plenty of other options.
Start
in software archive sites that offer ratings and reviews by other users. Sites
like www.download.com, www.tucows.com and www.versiontracker.com link to free
programs, shareware and trial versions of commercial software to sample.
AVS DVD Player
(www.avsmedia.com/DVDPlayer)
and VLC media player (www.videolan.org)
are two of the more popular free DVD programs. Commercial programs for playing
DVDs on your computer cost about $50, but they typically offer more features
like support for Dolby sound, brightness controls and battery-saving functions
for laptops. Free trial versions of InterVideos WinDVD (www.intervideo.com/WinDVD)
and CyberLinks PowerDVD (www.cyberlink.com)
are available to download.
I
use InterVideo WinDVD.
How to prevent bronchitis: My bronchitis is in its fourth week. It's
lingers, but slowly (agonizingly slowly) improves. My continuing advice: Run
a million miles from anyone who's coughing. From reader Paul Poirier:
Dear Harry,
I contracted bronchitis many years ago, several years after I had quit smoking.
I smoked from age 14 to age 27. About age 26 I suffered from bronchitis periodically.
One day I just started scraping the back of my tongue with my tooth brush.
No explanation for this. Maybe it just felt good or maybe it was punishment.
After a few days I noticed that my mouth felt better in the morning than it
had in years. The bronchitis never bothered me again. Before this "treatment,"
I suffered periodically from the typical symptoms of bronchitis: sore throat,
occasional fever, foul breath and I have forgotten the rest of the symptoms.
I am now 78 years old and feel very good. I did not take any medicine for
it. I hope this helps.
Bidding
on a web site (also called a URL): I needed
a web site. One of those companies that was camping on zillions of them had
it. I emailed them. Several weeks later, I could have it -- for $1,800. Two
weeks later it was "specially reduced" to $1,550. Several weeks later
(i.e. last night) it was down to $500. I wonder what it will be next week?
The absolute best speeding ticket excuse:
A Florida senior citizen drove his brand new
Corvette convertible out of the dealership. Taking off down the road, he floored
it to 80 mph, enjoying the wind blowing through what little hair he had left.
"Amazing," he thought as he flew down I-75, pushing the pedal even
more.
Looking in his
rear view mirror, he saw the highway patrol behind him, blue lights flashing
and siren blaring. He floored it to 100 MPH , then 110, then 120. Suddenly he
thought, "What am I doing? I'm too old for this," and pulled over
to await the Trooper's arrival.
Pulling in behind
him, the Trooper walked up to the Corvette, looked at his watch and said, "Sir,
my shift ends in 30 minutes. Today is Friday. If you can give me a reason for
speeding that I've never heard before, I'll let you go."
The old gentleman
paused. Then said, "Years ago, my wife ran off with a Florida State Trooper.
I thought you were bringing her back."
"Have a good
day, Sir," replied the Trooper.
The
auspicious deadline
A cop was patrolling late at night in a well-known spot. He sees
a couple in a car, with the interior light brightly glowing.
The cop carefully
approaches the car to get a closer look. Then he sees a young man behind the
wheel, reading a computer magazine. He immediately notices a young woman in
the rear seat, knitting.
Puzzled by this
surprising situation, the cop walks to the car and gently raps on the driver's
window.
The young man
lowers his window . "Uh, yes, officer?"
The cop says:
"What are you doing?"
The young man
says: "Well, Officer, I'm reading a magazine."
Pointing towards
the young woman in the back seat the cop says: "And her, what is she doing?"
The young man
shrugs: "Sir, I believe she's knitting a pullover sweater."
Now, the cop is
totally confused. A young couple alone, in a car, at night in a Lover's lane....
and nothing sexual or obscene is happening!
The cop asks:
"What's your age, young man?"
The young man
says : "I'm 22, sir."
The cop asks:
"And her .. what's her age?"
The young man
looks at his watch and replies:
"She'll be
18 in 11 minutes."
This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email
address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no
role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look
mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please
note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Claire's
law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
Go back.
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